For those of you interested:

• First column as of about 8:00 AM today.
• Second column are odds as of about 11:10 AM today.
• Point of comparison: +150 is about the same as being a 3 or 3.5 point underdog (+3 or +3.5) in the NFL.

All lines are for a Trump wager:

President Trump +145 +150 +165

State-by-State

AZ -140 no change -145
FL -190 -220 -250
GA -180 -170 -200
IA -550 -350 -400
MI +195 no change +170
MN +225 +300 +250
NC -160 no change -150
OH -400 -350 -325
PA +120 no change +130
TX -500 no change -500
WI +170 +190 +190


UPDATED at 3:20 PM CST.

So looks like PA and MI will decide it again

AvidAggie said:

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So looks like PA and MI will decide it again

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• No, he needs Michigan OR Pennsylvania and win all the favorites listed there. He doesn't need both.
• Other scenario would be that he gets 1 in Maine or all 3 in Nebraska and then he needs any Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania
• Lastly if he gets Nevada then he needs any of Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania

Biden has a much more narrow path to win based on these betting odds.

This is the map if we give Trump all the states that he is favored in based on the odds in the OP...

Multiple ways to to get to 270. Biden has a narrow path. He almost needs to sweep everything that is gray on this map.

How many of those red states did he win in 16?

Pretty sure all of them.

All

FriscoKid said:

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This is the map if we give Trump all the states that he is favored in based on the odds in the OP...

Multiple ways to to get to 270. Biden has a narrow path. He almost needs to sweep everything that is gray on this map.

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Not saying I agree, but if you're going to give Trump all of the states where he's favored, you'd have to do the same with Biden. You can't give each state to Trump and none to Biden and claim Biden has a narrow path.

It would look like this:

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/0BbNZ"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/0BbNZ">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

TxLawDawg said:

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FriscoKid said:

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This is the map if we give Trump all the states that he is favored in based on the odds in the OP...

Multiple ways to to get to 270. Biden has a narrow path. He almost needs to sweep everything that is gray on this map.

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Not saying I agree, but if you're going to give Trump all of the states where he's favored, you'd have to do the same with Biden. You can't give each state to Trump and none to Biden and claim Biden has a narrow path.

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The point is that Biden has to win almost all of the brown states, and some of them are must wins.

Think this is going off Biden's campaign managers quote about PA.

No, I'm assuming that Trump is being under counted in betting and polling sites. If they have him as a favorite then he's an outright favorite and I think that it's almost a lock.

DubFalls said:

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TxLawDawg said:

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FriscoKid said:

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This is the map if we give Trump all the states that he is favored in based on the odds in the OP...

Multiple ways to to get to 270. Biden has a narrow path. He almost needs to sweep everything that is gray on this map.

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Not saying I agree, but if you're going to give Trump all of the states where he's favored, you'd have to do the same with Biden. You can't give each state to Trump and none to Biden and claim Biden has a narrow path.

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The point is that Biden has to win almost all of the brown states, and some of them are must wins.

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That's racist.

Fair enough. I agree with you by the way. I was just commenting on your map in which you shaded red each state where Trump led, but left the states where Biden was supposedly winning as undecided.

TxLawDawg said:

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Fair enough. I agree with you by the way. I was just commenting on your map in which you shaded red each state where Trump led, but left the states where Biden was supposedly winning as undecided.

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Fairly or unfairly, that was my reasoning and assumption. Maybe I'm wrong and he won't win the states he's favored in based on the betting odds, but EVERYTHING has been drifting the other way. He isn't losing states that he is favored in. Biden on the other hand has.

I just tried to expand my bet on Predictit for Florida, and Perdictit said they had reached the max number of trades for today.

Florida is going red.

TxLawDawg said:

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FriscoKid said:

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This is the map if we give Trump all the states that he is favored in based on the odds in the OP...

Multiple ways to to get to 270. Biden has a narrow path. He almost needs to sweep everything that is gray on this map.

---

Not saying I agree, but if you're going to give Trump all of the states where he's favored, you'd have to do the same with Biden. You can't give each state to Trump and none to Biden and claim Biden has a narrow path.

It would look like this:

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/0BbNZ"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/0BbNZ">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

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NM is a tossup??

Overall odds on Biden just jumped from -190 to -210.

Odds on Pennsylvania havnt changed.

aeroag14 said:

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Overall odds on Biden just jumped from -190 to -210.

Odds on Pennsylvania havnt changed.

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Just noticed that too which is strange because Trump's odds have been increasing in all of the individual states he has to have that were too close to call.

yah we can't give them all to President Trump because he is just gonna take'em.

It's important to understand the max wagers on the books being referenced. Any book or site like predict-it that has a $500-$1000 max wager size is more or less just putting odds up for marketing/publicity. They don't have very much exposure, so they're just happy to get be getting action.

A large establishment that will actually take significant wagers (like a BetFair Exchange) are your better indicators on where the real money is going -- but understand unless you know all of the information on the wager, it won't necessarily be much of a predictor. I wouldn't be surprised if many heavy Biden bettors are doing so simply as a hedge (like how Mattress Mac will have people bet on the Astros in Vegas so he is hedged on his "if Astros win" giveaways).

how often does predictit update?

Proposition Joe said:

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It's important to understand the max wagers on the books being referenced. Any book or site like predict-it that has a $500-$1000 max wager size is more or less just putting odds up for marketing/publicity. They don't have very much exposure, so they're just happy to get be getting action.

A large establishment that will actually take significant wagers (like a BetFair Exchange) are your better indicators on where the real money is going -- but understand unless you know all of the information on the wager, it won't necessarily be much of a predictor. I wouldn't be surprised if many heavy Biden bettors are doing so simply as a hedge (like how Mattress Mac will have people bet on the Astros in Vegas so he is hedged on his "if Astros win" giveaways).

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Agreed. I don't believe there's any real "insider" information swinging these markets either. People are just guessing based of polling like the rest of us.

Odds Updated at 3:20 PM CST.

aeroag14 said:

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Overall odds on Biden just jumped from -190 to -210.

Odds on Pennsylvania havnt changed.

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If you were a bookie and needed more folks to bet on Biden, what would you do?

Paradise Ag said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Overall odds on Biden just jumped from -190 to -210.

Odds on Pennsylvania havnt changed.

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If you were a bookie and needed more folks to bet on Biden, what would you do?

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Move it from -190 to -170....?

BoerneAg11 said:

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Paradise Ag said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Overall odds on Biden just jumped from -190 to -210.

Odds on Pennsylvania havnt changed.

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If you were a bookie and needed more folks to bet on Biden, what would you do?

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Move it from -190 to -170....?

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Yep, brain fart.

Math is hard and Maker's Mark is good.

BoerneAg11 said:

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Paradise Ag said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Overall odds on Biden just jumped from -190 to -210.

Odds on Pennsylvania havnt changed.

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If you were a bookie and needed more folks to bet on Biden, what would you do?

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Move it from -190 to -170....?

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82 Ag said:

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For those of you interested:

• First column as of about 8:00 AM today.
• Second column are odds as of about 11:10 AM today.
• Point of comparison: +150 is about the same as being a 3 or 3.5 point underdog (+3 or +3.5) in the NFL.

All lines are for a Trump wager:

President Trump +145 +150 +165

State-by-State

AZ -140 no change -145
FL -190 -220 -250
GA -180 -170 -200
IA -550 -350 -400
MI +195 no change +170
MN +225 +300 +250
NC -160 no change -150
OH -400 -350 -325
PA +120 no change +130
TX -500 no change -500
WI +170 +190 +190


UPDATED at 3:20 PM CST.

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CURRENTLY

AZ EVEN
FL -460
GA - 260
IA - 360
MI +220
MN +275
NC -135
OH -400
PA +190
TX -450
WI +275

Down to Biden -130 / Trump +115 at betanysports.com
Huge move from -190 / +160 just a few hours ago.

Arizona is now -180

wasntme said:

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Arizona is now -180

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Does that mean AZ is moving in the right direction for Trump?

SwigAg11 said:

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wasntme said:

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Arizona is now -180

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Does that mean AZ is moving in the right direction for Trump?

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yes. now -200

Where are these from?