Henry Olsen predicts comfortable Dem Win

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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to UTExan • 11:43a, 11/2/20
UTExan said:
So he completely blew the 2016 election and this makes him special?
He got the electoral vote split on the head with the exception of WI/MI/PA (you know, the three states that came down to fewer than 100k total votes). That's pretty damn close, unless anything short of "Trump will win" is "blowing it".
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AgGrad99
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11:45a, 11/2/20

Quote:
Biden 350 Trump 188
Ummmm......

What on earth suggests this is even possible?
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Gigem314
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In reply to GAC06 • 11:45a, 11/2/20
GAC06 said:
Socks everywhere
Trying to get in their jabs while they can to mask their lack of confidence going into tomorrow.

I mean seriously...Biden winning 350 EV's? Almost as many as Obama won in 2008?

Come on. It may be close but other than media-produced polling I haven't see anything to indicate Biden is heading for a landslide.
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RandAlThor
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11:45a, 11/2/20
Great news. Voted for Biden.
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nortex97
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In reply to soggybottomboy • 11:46a, 11/2/20
LOL, 12 posts in 2+ years, and you join us on f16 for this trivial WaPo-CCP prognosticator troll?

Were your covid board posts deleted, OP (I don't see any)?

Regardless, Clinton win prediction, Manhattan Institute (aka Bill Kristol/Fiorina wing of the GOP), prior to (current) WaPo don't make me think...I really trust any of his analyses.

Quote:
Henry Olsen is an elections analyst and political essayist who studies conservative politics, both here and abroad. He looks at election returns and poll data to understand why people vote the way they do and how conservative politicians and thinkers can best advance their ideas in the climate they face.

Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Prior to that, he was a vice president at the American Enterprise Institute, a vice president at the Manhattan Institute, and president of the Commonwealth Foundation. He has also been a lawyer at the firm currently known as Dechert, a clerk for the Honorable Judge Danny J. Boggs on the Sixth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, a staffer for the California Assembly Republican Caucus, and an associate at the political consulting firm of Hoffenblum-Mollrich.

Olsen graduated with a B.A. in political science from Claremont McKenna College, and received his J.D. from the University of Chicago Law School.

His public election predictions can be found here (2004), here (2010), here (2012), and here (2014).
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dmz233
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In reply to TexAggieGrad12 • 11:46a, 11/2/20
TexAggieGrad12 said:
Biden wins. Senate flips. Hoping that my vote helps turn Texas blue. Excited for tomorrow.


Sock/troll.
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Conservative Ag
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In reply to RandAlThor • 11:46a, 11/2/20
RandAlThor said:
Great news. Voted for Biden.

Which of these things do you no longer need to use?

Products made from petroleum
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Rapier108
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11:47a, 11/2/20
And there is sock #4.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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policywonk98
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In reply to soggybottomboy • 11:47a, 11/2/20
soggybottomboy said:
Heard his podcast on Thursday, at the time he was leaning putting Iowa in the Dem column but the late changes in polling seems to have changed his mind. I believe he and Karlyn Bowman discussed that they are not seeing such movement in the other midwestern battleground state/district level polls.


None of those other polls have the same pulse on the state populations, nor do they have the same level of trust among the states citizens like DMR has with Iowa voters. Did he talk about that?
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dmz233
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In reply to RandAlThor • 11:47a, 11/2/20
RandAlThor said:
Great news. Voted for Biden.


Enjoy communism.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to RandAlThor • 11:48a, 11/2/20
RandAlThor said:
Great news. Voted for Biden.

You've posted 2 times since 2018. You really are a Biden guy! Lol
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soggybottomboy
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In reply to policywonk98 • 11:52a, 11/2/20
Ah, they didn't go into that much detail, no. So your scenario is possible
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Faustus
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In reply to Rockdoc • 12:02p, 11/2/20
Rockdoc said:
RandAlThor said:
Great news. Voted for Biden.

You've posted 2 times since 2018. You really are a Biden guy! Lol


Well, as the Dragon Reborn he's been a little busy.
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Mega Lops
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In reply to RandAlThor • 4:22p, 11/2/20
RandAlThor said:
Great news. Voted for Biden.
The Wheel of Time is the worst "epic" fantasy series of all time. The character of Rand Al'Thor is actually a perfect username for a lib to adopt.

Childish, effeminate male, lets females drive their agenda due to not being able make decisions.
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tamuwx
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4:25p, 11/2/20
While I sadly think Biden wins, this guy did have Clinton winning in 2016, so he's 0 for the last 1.
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Maacus
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In reply to soggybottomboy • 4:28p, 11/2/20
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La migra52
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In reply to TexAggieGrad12 • 4:39p, 11/2/20
TexAggieGrad12 said:
Biden wins. Senate flips. Hoping that my vote helps turn Texas blue. Excited for tomorrow.


I hope you leave Texas, actually the country when that dosent happen.
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AlexNguyen
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In reply to Mega Lops • 4:41p, 11/2/20
Ocean Of Funk said:
RandAlThor said:
Great news. Voted for Biden.
The Wheel of Time is the worst "epic" fantasy series of all time. The character of Rand Al'Thor is actually a perfect username for a lib to adopt.

Childish, effeminate male, lets females drive their agenda due to not being able make decisions.
He also is born to power and annointed by destiny. Falls in great with liberals.
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Burnsey
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5:01p, 11/2/20
Poop slap if Biden get 350 EC votes.
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titan
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In reply to Gigem314 • 5:13p, 11/2/20
Gigem314 said:
GAC06 said:
Socks everywhere
Trying to get in their jabs while they can to mask their lack of confidence going into tomorrow.

I mean seriously...Biden winning 350 EV's? Almost as many as Obama won in 2008?

Come on. It may be close but other than media-produced polling I haven't see anything to indicate Biden is heading for a landslide.
UNLESS, the election is a rigged fraud...they had four years to prepare. The politburo ones were. Maybe its as simple as that.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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AgsMnn
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5:14p, 11/2/20
Oh look. Another Rookie thread.
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fullback44
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In reply to soggybottomboy • 5:47p, 11/2/20
soggybottomboy said:
Henry is one of the best election prognosticators.


Linking to twitter so that it helps open Wapo link behind paywall

Summary:
Biden 350 Trump 188
Pop vote Biden 52.5 45.3
Senate: 50D 48R + 2 Georgia Runoffs
House 246D (currently 235D) 189 R

His 2016 prediction

So the guy predicted the Hildabeast to win 2016.. he must be a good predictor ?


His 2018 prediction
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Tex100
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5:49p, 11/2/20
NOT HENRY OLSEN!


Wait, who's Henry Olsen?
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CanyonAg77
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In reply to AgsMnn • 5:52p, 11/2/20
AgsMnn said:
Oh look. Another Rookie sock thread.
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Gunny456
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In reply to PneumAg • 5:52p, 11/2/20
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FriscoKid
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In reply to PneumAg • 12:26p, 11/3/20
PneumAg said:
Biden is not going to win by that much, but it's a foregone conclusion he is going to win IMO. The only question is, can Rs hold the Senate?

There was some lunatic on here a couple of days ago telling everybody it's a certainty the Rs take back the House. That is just laughable.
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
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ballchain
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In reply to soggybottomboy • 12:29p, 11/3/20
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