Does this MN Early Return map show POTUS winning the suburbs?

13,258 Views | 99 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Keegan99
Stupid@17
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7:33p, 11/1/20
Is this data all from the 16th?
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aginlakeway
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7:35p, 11/1/20
Some of those maps and numbers look horrible for Trump.
One day at a time.
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Swan Song
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In reply to bmks270 • 7:36p, 11/1/20
bmks270 said:
dreyOO said:
So 70%+ over 40yrs old? I'll take that


But the record yoots turnout? What happened?

Wisconsin 18-29, only 3%....


Turns out they don't actually know how the mail works. Never used it before.
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GAC06
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In reply to aginlakeway • 7:36p, 11/1/20
Just eyeballing it, Wisconsin and Minnesota look pretty good. Pennsylvania looks horrible, but that's largely an issue with early voting vs in person voting
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Captn_Ag05
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7:37p, 11/1/20
Pennsylvania isn't even worth looking at. Very few Republicans indicated that they planned to vote early there.
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Stupid@17
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7:37p, 11/1/20
I read the data set from them....these are presumed votes based upon being a registered Democrat or Republican, not actual vote made. For independents they use some random polling method to determine red or blue.
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black_ice
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In reply to aginlakeway • 7:37p, 11/1/20
aginlakeway said:
Some of those maps and numbers look horrible for Trump.






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EKUAg
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7:37p, 11/1/20


And this is going to be Keith's fault for unleashing the violence in Minnesota.
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GAC06
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In reply to EKUAg • 7:40p, 11/1/20
He's not done yet, there's acquittals coming
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Ukraine Gas Expert
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In reply to EKUAg • 7:41p, 11/1/20
Yep, and actively supporting marxism. Screw him.
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In reply to Oyster DuPree • 7:41p, 11/1/20
kubiak03
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7:42p, 11/1/20
Hence the BS he threw up when Trump was coming in
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Stressboy
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In reply to Stupid@17 • 7:47p, 11/1/20
Stupid@17 said:
Is this data all from the 16th?


If you go to the site the latest data they seem to have is from the 27th and only for some states.
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Ornithopter
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In reply to aginlakeway • 7:48p, 11/1/20
aginlakeway said:
Some of those maps and numbers look horrible for Trump.


It's all from October 16th.
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Stressboy
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In reply to Ornithopter • 7:51p, 11/1/20
DubFalls said:
aginlakeway said:
Some of those maps and numbers look horrible for Trump.


It's all from October 16th.


See my post above yours. The latest data they have at all is from this last Tuesday and most of the pics including Minnesota are from the 16th.

Edit: ALL tweets are referencing data from 10/16 2 weeks ago.
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Zemira
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7:52p, 11/1/20
From what I have seen in Pennsylvania all the Republicans will vote on election day.

I don't think they have in person early voting if I remember correctly. Or some other state is swirling around in my brain.
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Athanasius
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7:53p, 11/1/20
This thread is depressing.
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Ernest Tucker
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7:54p, 11/1/20
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74Ag1
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In reply to Zemira • 7:54p, 11/1/20
Zemira said:
From what I have seen in Pennsylvania all the Republicans will vote on election day.

I don't think they have in person early voting if I remember correctly. Or some other state is swirling around in my brain.

PA does not have early voting
VBM and Election Day only
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Zemira
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In reply to 74Ag1 • 7:55p, 11/1/20
Thanks!

All the various states' voting procedures are starting to glob together in my brain.
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Gaw617
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7:58p, 11/1/20
Is this just early main ballots or combined early mail in + early in person voting? I think the former.
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Stressboy
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In reply to Athanasius • 7:58p, 11/1/20
Athanasius said:
This thread is depressing.


Why? The data is 2 weeks old.
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Ernest Tucker
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In reply to Stressboy • 7:59p, 11/1/20
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kubiak03
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In reply to Stressboy • 8:00p, 11/1/20
Stressboy said:
Athanasius said:
This thread is depressing.


Why? The data is 2 weeks old.


Then what is the point of releasing this today if the data is weeks old?
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black_ice
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In reply to aginlakeway • 8:01p, 11/1/20
aginlakeway said:
Some of those maps and numbers look horrible for Trump.



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45-70Ag
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In reply to kubiak03 • 8:02p, 11/1/20
To keep you from voting if you live there.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to bigcat22 • 8:04p, 11/1/20
bigcat22 said:
Pennsylvania:



They are expecting 6.5 million turnout in PA. That's 4.3M and Rs in PA were close to plus 20 on Election Day 2016.

Then there's all the registered D union folk in Western PA breaking for Trump. It's hard to model what Rs need to win Election Day by to win. My guess is no less than 12 but probably more like 15.
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clw04
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In reply to Ernest Tucker • 8:05p, 11/1/20
brd79 said:
Georgia Early Return Ballots:3,494,399 37% R / 46% D / 16% NP
A: 18-29 13% / 30-39 13% / 40-49 16% / 50-64 30% / 65+ 28%
Asian 2% / White 56% / Hispanic 4% / AfAm 30%
HS Diploma 16% / Bach Degree 18% / Grad Degree+ 10%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 14% https://l2political.com/2020/10/16/l2s-early-absentee-voting-data-explained/


Michigan Early Return Ballots:2,550,011 21% R / 61% D / 9% NP
A: 18-29 10% / 30-39 9% / 40-49 10% / 50-64 28% / 65+ 43%
Asian 2% / White 72% / Hispanic 3% / AfAm 10%
HS Diploma 22% / Bach Degree 21% / Grad Degree+ 12%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 11% https://l2political.com/2020/10/16/l2s-early-absentee-voting-data-explained/

This is about half of the total vote Georgia or Michigan put in 2016. Really do not like those numbers with 50% reporting.
It comes down to how accurate their voter modeling is.

If you compare to Target Smart modeling

Georgia - 50% R / 43 % D / 7% NP
Michigan - 39% R / 42% D / 19% NP

It will be wild to see who is right. All these numbers require historical R voters transitioning to D.
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45-70Ag
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8:10p, 11/1/20
Is the prevailing thought here a trump victory is incredibly difficult, if not impossible?
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LostInLA07
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In reply to 45-70Ag • 8:11p, 11/1/20
black_ice
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In reply to 45-70Ag • 8:12p, 11/1/20
45-70Ag said:
Is the prevailing thought here a trump victory is incredibly difficult, if not impossible?




lol no. Quite the opposite.
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Stressboy
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In reply to Ernest Tucker • 8:12p, 11/1/20
brd79 said:
Stressboy said:
Athanasius said:
This thread is depressing.


Why? The day is 2 weeks old.


It is, but that is like 50% of the vote totals in for Georgia and Michigan either way. That's a lot of ground to make up on election day


But Georgia has in person early voting and these numbers do not account for probably 5-8 days of data.
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45-70Ag
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In reply to black_ice • 8:13p, 11/1/20
I hope that's true, but I'm paranoid
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black_ice
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In reply to 45-70Ag • 8:14p, 11/1/20
45-70Ag said:
I hope that's true, but I'm paranoid




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74Ag1
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In reply to Stressboy • 8:18p, 11/1/20
Stressboy said:
brd79 said:
Stressboy said:
Athanasius said:
This thread is depressing.


Why? The day is 2 weeks old.


It is, but that is like 50% of the vote totals in for Georgia and Michigan either way. That's a lot of ground to make up on election day


But Georgia has in person early voting and these numbers do not account for probably 5-8 days of data.

Yep those numbers are up to 10/16 (don't know if it's through the 16th or 15th)
Early voting in GA started 10/12... so if included it's only 3-4 days worth
Today's 11/1.... so it does not include 2 weeks worth
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