Ohio = 14/14, Florida = 13/14

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bmks270
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9:09p, 10/28/20
AG
Let's talk Election correlations.

14 of the last 14 elections, Ohio has sided with the winner.
13 of the last 14 elections, Florida has sided with the winner.

Ohio:

RCP Trump +0.6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_biden-6765.html#!

Predict it: 0.74$ Trump, 0.21$ Biden

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5600/Which-party-will-win-Ohio-in-the-2020-presidential-election



Florida:
Returned ballots in early voting looking like a lock for Trump assuming no huge crossover vote or independent lean.

RCP Tie

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Predicted it:

Predict it: 0.60$ Trump, 0.44$ Biden

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5544/Which-party-will-win-Florida-in-the-2020-presidential-election

###########################

How can a statistician like Nate Silver look at the numbers in Florida and Ohio, know the historical correlation to siding with the election winner, and with a straight face profess that that a Biden win is a certainty?

Just the Ohio and Florida poll data would indicate those two states are true toss ups, meaning that based on their history of siding with the winner, then this election is a toss up and there can't be strong confidence for either side.

Every election since I can remember except this 2020 election Ohio and Florida are talked about non stop.
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Pelayo
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:13p, 10/28/20
AG
Will be interesting to see how much he hedges or walks back some of his statements as Tuesday draws near
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Always_Right
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:15p, 10/28/20
AG
Because the early voting numbers don't look good for the Dems in Florida.
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MemphisAg1
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9:18p, 10/28/20
AG
Covid is the wildcard.

FL and OH have R governors that promoted a more open state, economic prosperity, and individual liberty.

PA, MI, and WI all have D governors that blamed Covid on Trump, shut down their states, and choked off their economies. Will be interesting to see if their citizens believe them and take it out on Trump at the polls, or push back on their governors and tilt toward Trump instead.
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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:18p, 10/28/20
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.
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FbgTxAg
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9:19p, 10/28/20
AG
Because he's part of the very desperate Ministry of Truth.
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bmks270
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:22p, 10/28/20
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.
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Always_Right
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:24p, 10/28/20
AG
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.
Exactly.
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Texasaggie32
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9:24p, 10/28/20
Feel that it's going to come down to one of PA/MI/MN/WI/NH+NV. Think Trump takes NC, FL, and AZ.
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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:27p, 10/28/20
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:28p, 10/28/20
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.






How is this different than all trump has to do is defend the map he already won in 2016?
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bmks270
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9:29p, 10/28/20
AG
Well these betting numbers are really iffy if you look at Texas and Ohio. It seems the betting market thinks Trumps chances in Ohio and Texas are about the same. Any sane person knows that isn't right, but these are just bookies taking bets, so the belief of the people making bets is clearly not aligned with reality.

Ohio:
0.74$ Trump, 0.21$ Biden

Texas:
0.73$ Trump, 0.29$ Biden
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Always_Right
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:30p, 10/28/20
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.
You have to agree Texaglurkerguy, Tuesday will be an interesting night.....I don't think any of us will get much sleep.
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Claverack
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:31p, 10/28/20
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.
Did you ever think about the possibility that Trump may flip a state or two with a strong energy sector, the same energy sector Biden promised to destroy over the course of this campaign?

Trump's going to do better in Pennsylvania than you or Nate or anyone knows right now because people in Pennsylvania heard Biden loud and clear earlier this year regarding fracking. He'll also have a shot in New Mexico because Oldfinger decided to threaten their livelihoods as well. The Iron Range in Minnesota puts Trump in play in that state.

People may not like the New Yorker's personality or some aspects of his behavior. But they know he isn't out to take away their jobs, their businesses, and those of their neighbors.

The same can't be said for Joe Biden.



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flashplayer
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:32p, 10/28/20
AG
bmks270 said:
Well these betting numbers are really iffy if you look at Texas and Ohio. It seems the betting market thinks Trumps chances in Ohio and Texas are about the same. Any sane person knows that isn't right, but these are just bookies taking bets, so the belief of the people making bets is clearly not aligned with reality.

Ohio:
0.74$ Trump, 0.21$ Biden

Texas:
0.73$ Trump, 0.29$ Biden


Predictit #s aren't set by bookies or the house at this point. Otherwise I agree with the rest of your statement
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bmks270
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In reply to flashplayer • 9:37p, 10/28/20
AG
Whatever the market makers and algorithms.
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bmks270
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:45p, 10/28/20
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.


I just examined the 2016 polling data and the polling margin a week before the election is about the exact same for Biden as it was for Clinton. Except now Michigan has a totalitarian governor, Philly is burning, and Trump has much more enthusiasm among is supporters than he did in 2016, and much more organized ground campaign.

However the Ohio data seems to give Biden an edge in 2020 compared to the 2016 polling numbers.

But you are right, in the final results Trump was +8 in Ohio but +<1 in the others.
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suburban cowboy
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9:46p, 10/28/20
AG
Jack Nicklaus just endorsed Trump
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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 9:47p, 10/28/20
For one thing, he's not currently favored to flip any states he lost in 2016. The closest ones are NV, NH, and MN, all of which are projecting (again, if we're going by PredicrIt metrics as the OP has) about as safe for Biden as Texas is for Trump. And he barely won PA/MI/WI as it is, all three of which he is currently projected to lose.
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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to Claverack • 9:52p, 10/28/20
I have considered it, but I think generally this board is overrating the impact of the oil and gas comment because 1) they want to think it's a big deal and 2) bias considering a large contingent of this board went to A&M/spent time in Houston area and thus has an inflated perspective of the industry's scope outside of Texas (I had a poster earlier argue that the oil comment would hurt him in WI - a state that doesn't produce oil and gas).

I won't say polling in PA hasn't tightened since the debate because clearly it has, but we'll get some higher quality polls from PA in the next couple days to know for sure.
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Reservoir Dog
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:58p, 10/28/20
texaglurkerguy said:

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


Interesting... so, why won't people attend his rallies knowing they have a historic opportunity to meet the 46th President of the United States???
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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to bmks270 • 9:59p, 10/28/20
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.


I just examined the 2016 polling data and the polling margin a week before the election is about the exact same for Biden as it was for Clinton. Except now Michigan has a totalitarian governor, Philly is burning, and Trump has much more enthusiasm among is supporters than he did in 2016, and much more organized ground campaign.

However the Ohio data seems to give Biden an edge in 2020 compared to the 2016 polling numbers.

But you are right, in the final results Trump was +8 in Ohio but +<1 in the others.


When comparing this year to 2016 in the polls, it's useful to look not just at margins but also raw totals. In WI for example Hillary led 47-40 (+7), but that 13% undecided/3rd party broke massively for trump (both ended up with about 47%). Right now it's 50-44 (+6), so the margin may be closer, but there are fewer undecideds to help close the gap. Candidates who poll 50+% in a state rarely lose.
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backintexas2013
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 9:59p, 10/28/20
AG
The thing about the poles is it's likely voters. If lines are long and weather bad how fired up will people be to stand in line to vote for someone they don't really like? If weather is good and lines aren't long it won't matter but it could make a difference. There is no love for Biden it's all about not Trump. Hatred only has so much impact
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to Reservoir Dog • 10:06p, 10/28/20
AG
Reservoir Dog said:
texaglurkerguy said:

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


Interesting... so, why won't people attend his rallies knowing they have a historic opportunity to meet the 46th President of the United States???


Because all 11 of them at the rally are confined to their little white circles.
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Claverack
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 10:08p, 10/28/20
texaglurkerguy said:
I have considered it, but I think generally this board is overrating the impact of the oil and gas comment because 1) they want to think it's a big deal and 2) bias considering a large contingent of this board went to A&M/spent time in Houston area and thus has an inflated perspective of the industry's scope outside of Texas (I had a poster earlier argue that the oil comment would hurt him in WI - a state that doesn't produce oil and gas).

I won't say polling in PA hasn't tightened since the debate because clearly it has, but we'll get some higher quality polls from PA in the next couple days to know for sure.
It is not just one comment. It is a series of comments made over time on this subject.

If I work in the fracking industry, in a components factory providing supplies for those involved in fracking, or at a restaurant near a productive vein employing the people who are my customers, and I hear someone tell me repeatedly they are going to end my living, then I'm going to vote against them regardless of what I may think of the other guy.

People have heard Biden on this matter over time and I suspect Trump has picked up plenty of votes from those not typically associated with the GOP because of it.

You think it is not big deal. Plenty of Americans commute long distances in vehicles dependent on American energy resources. The last thing they need is a President attempting to take away 3/4ths of the energy resources in this country, including the gasoline powering their engines and making it possible to provide for their families.



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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to backintexas2013 • 10:14p, 10/28/20
backintexas2013 said:
The thing about the poles is it's likely voters. If lines are long and weather bad how fired up will people be to stand in line to vote for someone they don't really like? If weather is good and lines aren't long it won't matter but it could make a difference. There is no love for Biden it's all about not Trump. Hatred only has so much impact


This is true, people on here rib on Biden all the time for not having enthusiasm/rally crowds/etc., but this election was always going to be a referendum on Trump. Turnout is looking like it'll be record high, so clearly there's motivation on both sides.
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deskdrawer
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10:20p, 10/28/20
Our President is going to be re-elected.

Biden should have pulled the covid card and not done the last debate b/c he destroyed himself by telling the truth. Pennsylvania is now President Trump's and with the recent riots in Philly it is pushing more people towards President Trump the last week leading up to election day that he didn't have before. Thank you blm!!!!!

Ohio is his. He wins at least one of the two between Michigan and Wisconsin but I would say he wins those two before Biden would win those two.

Biden has performed terribly and with no ground game to speak of he has lost a ton of independents who are now firmly voting for President Trump. I thought Hillary was the laziest candidate ever but Biden has outdone her.



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bmks270
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 10:34p, 10/28/20
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.


I just examined the 2016 polling data and the polling margin a week before the election is about the exact same for Biden as it was for Clinton. Except now Michigan has a totalitarian governor, Philly is burning, and Trump has much more enthusiasm among is supporters than he did in 2016, and much more organized ground campaign.

However the Ohio data seems to give Biden an edge in 2020 compared to the 2016 polling numbers.

But you are right, in the final results Trump was +8 in Ohio but +<1 in the others.


When comparing this year to 2016 in the polls, it's useful to look not just at margins but also raw totals. In WI for example Hillary led 47-40 (+7), but that 13% undecided/3rd party broke massively for trump (both ended up with about 47%). Right now it's 50-44 (+6), so the margin may be closer, but there are fewer undecideds to help close the gap. Candidates who poll 50+% in a state rarely lose.


That 50% RCP average includes a poll that has Biden up +17 points, 57-40.

Wisconsin also has the largest polling error of 2016 as far as I can tell, the result was Trump won but the RCP average was Clinton +6. The Wisconsin data is garbage.

The Trafalgar Wisconsin pol is Biden +1.
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McKinney Ag69
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 10:36p, 10/28/20
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
I have considered it, but I think generally this board is overrating the impact of the oil and gas comment because 1) they want to think it's a big deal and 2) bias considering a large contingent of this board went to A&M/spent time in Houston area and thus has an inflated perspective of the industry's scope outside of Texas (I had a poster earlier argue that the oil comment would hurt him in WI - a state that doesn't produce oil and gas).

I won't say polling in PA hasn't tightened since the debate because clearly it has, but we'll get some higher quality polls from PA in the next couple days to know for sure.


Ok I'm not in the O&G industry, but like everyone here, i am a consumer of O&G products which is practically everything from the gas I put in my car to my clothes, shoes, plastic keurig cups I use For coffee in the morning. It's intentionally obtuse to say that reducing fracking and dismantling the oil industry only affects people in oil producing states. It will impact people from Wisconsin to Florida. Not sure about you, but I'm enjoying sub $2.00 gas.
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FrioAg 00
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10:37p, 10/28/20
AG
I'm just got back from a dinner with someone high up in the Biden campaign - former high level staffer under Obama, now on the speaker circuit.

He said the polls are bullsheet and always are. He gave me their typically rosy perspective overall, but admitted that Trump was likely to win Florida and NC.

Where's they are confident, perhaps too much so, is Penn, Michigan and Wisconsin. He straight up admitted that if their data is wrong and one of those falls, he's worried. The normal confidence faltered quite a bit and he said 2 weeks ago they believed it was over.

He's at a coin flip for AZ.

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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to Claverack • 10:37p, 10/28/20
You're preaching to the choir, I work in O&G. I'm just saying his stance on the industry probably doesn't move the needle in PA as much as people here think, especially considering O&G is a comparatively small part of PA's economy (#10 industry per the link below).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/304930/pennsylvania-real-gdp-by-industry/
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Gigem314
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 10:47p, 10/28/20
AG
FrioAg 00 said:
I'm just got back from a dinner with someone high up in the Biden campaign - former high level staffer under Obama, now on the speaker circuit.

He said the polls are bullsheet and always are. He gave me their typically rosy perspective overall, but admitted that Trump was likely to win Florida and NC.

Where's they are confident, perhaps too much so, is Penn, Michigan and Wisconsin. He straight up admitted that if their data is wrong and one of those falls, he's worried. The normal confidence faltered quite a bit and he said 2 weeks ago they believed it was over.

He's at a coin flip for AZ.

Interesting
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texaglurkerguy
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In reply to bmks270 • 10:48p, 10/28/20
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.


I just examined the 2016 polling data and the polling margin a week before the election is about the exact same for Biden as it was for Clinton. Except now Michigan has a totalitarian governor, Philly is burning, and Trump has much more enthusiasm among is supporters than he did in 2016, and much more organized ground campaign.

However the Ohio data seems to give Biden an edge in 2020 compared to the 2016 polling numbers.

But you are right, in the final results Trump was +8 in Ohio but +<1 in the others.


When comparing this year to 2016 in the polls, it's useful to look not just at margins but also raw totals. In WI for example Hillary led 47-40 (+7), but that 13% undecided/3rd party broke massively for trump (both ended up with about 47%). Right now it's 50-44 (+6), so the margin may be closer, but there are fewer undecideds to help close the gap. Candidates who poll 50+% in a state rarely lose.


That 50% RCP average includes a poll that has Biden up +17 points, 57-40.

Wisconsin also has the largest polling error of 2016 as far as I can tell, the result was Trump won but the RCP average was Clinton +6. The Wisconsin data is garbage.

The Trafalgar Wisconsin pol is Biden +1.


Wisconsin did have the biggest polling margin miss. That's because 13% were undecided and 7% of these went to Trump, as opposed to 0% to Clinton. Right now less than 6% are undecided, and Biden is polling over 50% on average. Again, this is why you shouldn't just look at margins in a vacuum. 46-40 is not the same as 50-44.
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Conservative Ag
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 10:53p, 10/28/20
texaglurkerguy said:
I have considered it, but I think generally this board is overrating the impact of the oil and gas comment because 1) they want to think it's a big deal and 2) bias considering a large contingent of this board went to A&M/spent time in Houston area and thus has an inflated perspective of the industry's scope outside of Texas (I had a poster earlier argue that the oil comment would hurt him in WI - a state that doesn't produce oil and gas).

I won't say polling in PA hasn't tightened since the debate because clearly it has, but we'll get some higher quality polls from PA in the next couple days to know for sure.
Had a Michigan Ph.D. geologist about to retire from Exxon in my office today. You think he's smart?

If you stop drilling for oil and gas, the only thing that, as you look around you, would still exist, is your body, any steel, and wood. Think about that.
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Patentmike
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In reply to texaglurkerguy • 11:19p, 10/28/20
AG
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
bmks270 said:
texaglurkerguy said:
1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.


The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.


Historically you're right, but in 2016 OH was +8% for Trump compared to WI, MI, and PA. So there's a pretty big rift between OH and the rest when it comes to Trump's support.


I just examined the 2016 polling data and the polling margin a week before the election is about the exact same for Biden as it was for Clinton. Except now Michigan has a totalitarian governor, Philly is burning, and Trump has much more enthusiasm among is supporters than he did in 2016, and much more organized ground campaign.

However the Ohio data seems to give Biden an edge in 2020 compared to the 2016 polling numbers.

But you are right, in the final results Trump was +8 in Ohio but +<1 in the others.


When comparing this year to 2016 in the polls, it's useful to look not just at margins but also raw totals. In WI for example Hillary led 47-40 (+7), but that 13% undecided/3rd party broke massively for trump (both ended up with about 47%). Right now it's 50-44 (+6), so the margin may be closer, but there are fewer undecideds to help close the gap. Candidates who poll 50+% in a state rarely lose.


That 50% RCP average includes a poll that has Biden up +17 points, 57-40.

Wisconsin also has the largest polling error of 2016 as far as I can tell, the result was Trump won but the RCP average was Clinton +6. The Wisconsin data is garbage.

The Trafalgar Wisconsin pol is Biden +1.


Wisconsin did have the biggest polling margin miss. That's because 13% were undecided and 7% of these went to Trump, as opposed to 0% to Clinton. Right now less than 6% are undecided, and Biden is polling over 50% on average. Again, this is why you shouldn't just look at margins in a vacuum. 46-40 is not the same as 50-44.
And there goes your credibility. You completely ducked his main point that Biden's 50% is only b/c of a bad poll grossly skewing the numbers.
PatentMike, J.D.
BS Biochem
MS Molecular Virology


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