Agreed, and I thank you for taking a bit of a contrarian/skeptical look at it. My reason for confidence in the Raptor figures is just that they have built…a LOT of them for a developmental engine that hasn't gone (fully) into orbit yet even. I don't think they'd logically keep up a charade about the performance/goals if they know it's…not going to hit the figures, and also I think data would have leaked if they aren't getting the thrust numbers advertised.
As well, the rest of the speculation is about…the vehicle/stages themselves. I don't think it makes sense to assume the increased efficiency from the hot staging is actually…decreasing payload to orbit. That's neglecting the whole rationale behind it.
Things are changing and I have no idea what to expect in July/Starship 2 etc, but I do not see any evidence from the commentariat world that Starship is actually…drastically underperforming goals, just the opposite, though there are plenty of 'clickbait' headlines I realize from, heck Marcus House, Zach Golden, Angry Astronaut you name it. They also just removed a lot of the shielding from the design I think on the booster around the engines as it's not needed, so not all changes are adding mass/decreasing payload to be sure.
Myself, it's not the engine/payload specs that worry/concern me, it's whether the catch mechanism(s) will work as advertised anytime soon...if that huge system even survives re-entry. But I'm sure enjoying the show.
