I agree

WhoopN06 said:

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I actually think Biden will do ok in the debates. They'll define the rules of the debates to be extremely narrow with no extemporaneous discussion allowed. The candidates won't be able to deviate from the agreed to topics. Biden will be prepared extremely well to answer questions on the topics.

Basically it will be a joke of a "debate" and the media will carry his water exclaiming how great he did.

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It's been tried before and did not work. Rules or not, it won't happen. Trump will dominate.

Trump has another uphill battle.

I'm not really sure why people get upset by that observation.

Less than 100,000 votes across three states was the difference between winning and losing for Trump against a bad candidate with lots of baggage in Hillary Clinton.

But its also true that less than 100,000 votes across three states Hillary won would have given Trump an addition 20 EC votes.

Just like in 2016. 2020 will come down to how well both sides GOTV within whatever parameters for voting are set in each state. If its mail in or whatever, both sides have to buckle up, find their supporters, and make sure they vote.

As far as polls. National polls are meaningless while the margins for victory and defeat are so thin within a system like the Electoral College. State polling of likely voters is all that matters.

Given incumbency and the sheer volume of negative press and economic uncertainty. If Biden is not at or above 6% margin of victory in the key midwest states on September 15. Hes in trouble. Because I don't think he is personally healthy enough to energize enough supporters across enough states within a 6 week period of time to not get overtaken by Trump and his campaign.

For those that think the "secret Trump voter" is a myth. Your wrong. In the mid-90s, they were the Perot voter. There are several reasons why pollsters aren't able to capture them as well as they would like. But they are there and if Trumps team has figured out how to stay connected to them over the last 4 years, you better believe they will make a difference after not showing up in polling numbers leading up to election.

damiond said:

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WhoopN06 said:

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I actually think Biden will do ok in the debates. They'll define the rules of the debates to be extremely narrow with no extemporaneous discussion allowed. The candidates won't be able to deviate from the agreed to topics. Biden will be prepared extremely well to answer questions on the topics.

Basically it will be a joke of a "debate" and the media will carry his water exclaiming how great he did.

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It's been tried before and did not work. Rules or not, it won't happen. Trump will dominate.

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Biden is only ever one breath away from his next 'you ain't black' or 'dog faced pony soldier' explosion. Confused rage is absolutely unavoidable with dementia.

notex said:

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damiond said:

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WhoopN06 said:

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I actually think Biden will do ok in the debates. They'll define the rules of the debates to be extremely narrow with no extemporaneous discussion allowed. The candidates won't be able to deviate from the agreed to topics. Biden will be prepared extremely well to answer questions on the topics.

Basically it will be a joke of a "debate" and the media will carry his water exclaiming how great he did.

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It's been tried before and did not work. Rules or not, it won't happen. Trump will dominate.

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Biden is only ever one breath away from his next 'you ain't black' or 'dog faced pony soldier' explosion. Confused rage is absolutely unavoidable with dementia.

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My big concern is the moderators will jump in and save him. They're going to do EVERYTHING to prop him up.

PA is registering more republicans than democrats 5 to 1.

I guess Nate Silver may be just talking about his own model when he claims that the Trump win was within the margin of error. But if you look at the RCP average for 2016, Trump's win in the swing states was actually well outside the margin of error.

There was a WSJ poll like 4 weeks before the election in 2016 that showed Hillary up nationally by something like 14 points, and she ended up winning the popular vote by between 2-3 percentage points. I don't necessarily think that there is an issue with the polls if you put Biden against a generic R. I think the issue is that Trump is different. He appeals to independents and they just don't want to admit it to pollsters. And why would they? They could be fired from their jobs if someone doxxed them.

barnyard1996 said:

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PA is registering more republicans than democrats 5 to 1.

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Yeah, the ground game they've created in the midwest is impressive. It seems like the local GOP operators in the midwest have been able to capitalize on TrumpCamp rallies and emphasis in WestPA, OH, MI consistently over the last 3 years.

I think Trump can get over the 3M mark in PA with his efforts, which would be a first for a Republican candidate. The question becomes, can the Dems match the Obama high watermark of 3.2M from 2008. GOP has done 5 to 1 registration which indicates fresh momentum and energy. Dems are still registered probably in the 700-800K more than GOP in the state based on the Obama campaign efforts 2008-2012.

There is also something being ignored by the media for the most part. If you look at the Civiqs daily tracking job approval poll, which tracks the opinion of about 400,000 voters. Trump continues to enjoy net positive job approval rating among 50+ voters in 29 states. He still enjoys net positive job approval from white voters. And PA, MI, WI, IA, OH have some of the highest percentages of old white voters in the nation.

Media is not talking about it in these terms, but the Dems and media are all-in on Covid being all Trumps fault. They know these numbers. They are trying to break down Trumps wall of old white voters. The most reliable voting block in all the land.

Good post.

When they poll on just the economy, Trump leads Biden across the board.

barnyard1996 said:

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Good post.

When they poll on just the economy, Trump leads Biden across the board.

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Good point.

Another one. With 50+ voters, BLM is not popular. The oldies arent fond of the movement. And that's not just in the states Trump won last time.

2016 story was: they didn't show up to vote for Hillary. Trump's numbers were really no different from Romney. It wasn't really fully anti-Hillary (they didn't vote for Trump). There were also a small amount of people who refused to vote for Trump, but probably will in 2020. But it seems to me this mostly occurred in states Trump won anyways.

2020: will voters again stay home, or will numbers be up?

A lot is going to depend on young voter turnout.

The events of the last couple months on the social unrest side is indeed very divisive by age. Young people by and large support it and feel it's justified. Old people for the most part think it's awful, regardless of other political ideology.

Typically young people fail to show up at the polls, at least when compared to old people. But I am cautious to assume that old trend matters right now - because those voting against Trump seem really passionate about that.

See any Biden flags?

FrioAg 00 said:

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A lot is going to depend on young voter turnout.

The events of the last couple months on the social unrest side is indeed very divisive by age. Young people by and large support it and feel it's justified. Old people for the most part think it's awful, regardless of other political ideology.

Typically young people fail to show up at the polls, at least when compared to old people. But I am cautious to assume that old trend matters right now - because those voting against Trump seem really passionate about that.

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Part of that young turn-out also depends on where they are registered to vote. Their residence? Or on campus? If school is on-line and they aren't on campus? What then?

policywonk98 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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PA is registering more republicans than democrats 5 to 1.

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Yeah, the ground game they've created in the midwest is impressive. It seems like the local GOP operators in the midwest have been able to capitalize on TrumpCamp rallies and emphasis in WestPA, OH, MI consistently over the last 3 years.

I think Trump can get over the 3M mark in PA with his efforts, which would be a first for a Republican candidate. The question becomes, can the Dems match the Obama high watermark of 3.2M from 2008. GOP has done 5 to 1 registration which indicates fresh momentum and energy. Dems are still registered probably in the 700-800K more than GOP in the state based on the Obama campaign efforts 2008-2012.

There is also something being ignored by the media for the most part. If you look at the Civiqs daily tracking job approval poll, which tracks the opinion of about 400,000 voters. Trump continues to enjoy net positive job approval rating among 50+ voters in 29 states. He still enjoys net positive job approval from white voters. And PA, MI, WI, IA, OH have some of the highest percentages of old white voters in the nation.

Media is not talking about it in these terms, but the Dems and media are all-in on Covid being all Trumps fault. They know these numbers. They are trying to break down Trumps wall of old white voters. The most reliable voting block in all the land.

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Trump should go to Pennsylvania and Ohio and hit the college football angle really, really hard. He should also hit the anti-fracking stance of Biden really hard in strategic areas of those states.

aggiehawg said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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A lot is going to depend on young voter turnout.

The events of the last couple months on the social unrest side is indeed very divisive by age. Young people by and large support it and feel it's justified. Old people for the most part think it's awful, regardless of other political ideology.

Typically young people fail to show up at the polls, at least when compared to old people. But I am cautious to assume that old trend matters right now - because those voting against Trump seem really passionate about that.

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Part of that young turn-out also depends on where they are registered to vote. Their residence? Or on campus? If school is on-line and they aren't on campus? What then?

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Voter intention by age from a recent battleground poll (WI, PA, MI). Young voters have the most 50-50 meh response.

And then there is what actually shows up.