BWHAHAHAH!

The media have their lemmings who are going to fall for this again.

Virtually every poll had Hillary winning the election up until about the time President Trump won Florida. Then all of the "experts" started adjusting their percentages a few hours before Hillary conceded to President Trump.

This time they are not even hiding what they are doing yet a bunch of people will fall for it again.

I can't wait for election night to get the montage version 2 of liberal tears once President Trump wins bigly again.

Any chance you could find that? I would really like to read it.

Carolin_Gallego said:

---

If people were logical then we would not have placed a person into the highest public office in the land that doesn't have experience holding public office (and it does show). There were other options for the party. Just say'n.

---

I'm talking about the public, not the DNC who bribed Amy and Pete to drop out days before Super Tuesday to rig it. They got Clyburn to give Biden his endorsement in South Carolina to stop Bernie. The DNC knew they were heading down the contested road to an eventual Bernie win and angry black democrats. These people want power and the DNC wasn't going to hand it over to the Bernie/AOC types without a fight.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

TAMU1990 said:

---

I don't understand how anyone can look at what's happening in democratic cities and blame it in the other guy. Defies all logic. Yes, I know there are stupid people out there but even those with marginal awareness know what is causing these problems (liberal white people).

---

It's because those places are full of liberal white people.

---

I'm taking about the entire country

TAMU1990 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

TAMU1990 said:

---

I don't understand how anyone can look at what's happening in democratic cities and blame it in the other guy. Defies all logic. Yes, I know there are stupid people out there but even those with marginal awareness know what is causing these problems (liberal white people).

---

It's because those places are full of liberal white people.

---

I'm taking about the entire country

---

So am I

Rapier108 said:

---

"Small advantage" in the polls for Hillary? Talk about bull*****

Most polls had her up 10-15 points throughout the summer and into the fall.

---

It may have felt that way, but in reality it was not the case.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

barnyard1996 said:

---

I saw a interview with an RCP exec. Dont have a link, but he basically said they are having the same issues as last time with the trump voters on telephone conducted polls. The working man does not want to talk to pollsters.

---

Or course not, And it is literally more risky than in 2016. Look at your own campus.

Rapier108 said:

---

"Small advantage" in the polls for Hillary? Talk about bull*****

Most polls had her up 10-15 points throughout the summer and into the fall.

---

No they didn't. The polling average for the 6 mounts before the election remained consistently below 10 points. With Trump actually taking the lead a few times.




If you compare the 2016 polls to the 2020 polls there is a clear difference.

deskdrawer said:

---

BWHAHAHAH!

The media have their lemmings who are going to fall for this again.

Virtually every poll had Hillary winning the election up until about the time President Trump won Florida. Then all of the "experts" started adjusting their percentages a few hours before Hillary conceded to President Trump.

This time they are not even hiding what they are doing yet a bunch of people will fall for it again.

I can't wait for election night to get the montage version 2 of liberal tears once President Trump wins bigly again.

---

That's because most people had him losing Florida. Once it started becoming clear he'd win it, it was obvious the models needed to change and eliminate all of the scenarios in which he lost it and star running with the, previously, less likely scenarios in which he won it.

Trump's win was because he did something most politicians don't do. He focused heavily on states where he had a lower chance of winning instead of trying to shore up states where he had a smaller chance of winning because he saw that Hillary was not giving them much, if any, attention. He played aggressively, and that's how he took a bunch of historically blue states.

WhoopN06 said:

---

Any chance you could find that? I would really like to read it.

---

It was a TV interview with Martha MacCallum (i think).

Carolin_Gallego said:

---

If people were logical then we would not have placed a person into the highest public office in the land that doesn't have experience holding public office (and it does show). There were other options for the party. Just say'n.

---

Yeah just look at the liberal idiots that vote for the same liberal morons over and over again. No logical thinking people whatsoever. That's why Sleepy Joe is still around. That's why Skeletor Pelosi is still around. That's why crazy Chuch Schumer is still around. People vote for these clowns time and time again and get the same results. Stupidity at its finest, but that's the liberal way.

He needs to stay off Twitter and Facebook. The guy sounds like an idiot.

Thank you. Should be able to find it from there.

pacecar02 said:

---

titan said:

---

None of this really matters till October. We could be in World War IV by then.

---

NO NO NO NO

The lizard people are coming out mid October, are you not reading the newsletter?????

---

I thought it was murder hornets?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/trump-polls-biden-324210

WhoopN06 said:

---

Thank you. Should be able to find it from there.

---

https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/08/tom-bevan-real-clear-politics-trump-biden-election-polling/

Its coined "Shy Trump Effect"

Thank you. The Politico article i posted above covers some of the some information.

Hillary +12
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10Y28J

Electoral landslide for Hillary
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-u-s-polls-june27-1.3654681

Hillary +9
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/08/01/2016.post-dem.convention.pdf

Bunch of last minute state polls, only a few were right.
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/2801502

And this with only a 5 minute search of TA. Plenty of other polls out there which had Hillary in a landslide.

538 gave HRC a 71 percent chance to win at the closing bell.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/


It was undecided's who decided 2016, they think, but I think it was really just shy Trump voters, which is the same this year.

Quote:

---

As ought to be fairly intuitive, undecided voters make for a more uncertain outcome. If two-thirds of undecideds were to break for Trump, for instance, the candidates would tie in the popular vote at almost 50-50. If Clinton were to win undecideds by that margin, she'd claim a 7- or 8- point popular vote victory. Granted, these outcomes are not totally realistic, given that the third-party candidates will get at least some votes. But a candidate polling at just 46 percent of the vote can't take her victory for granted, and one polling at 42 percent is at risk of a blowout if late-deciding voters move against him.

Undecided voters contribute significantly to uncertainty in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. If there were half as many undecideds in line with recent past elections but still more than in 2012 Clinton's chances of winning the Electoral College would rise to 78 percent in our forecast, and her chances of winning the popular vote would be 89 percent, higher than Obama's were in our final 2012 forecast.

---

They also gave HRC a 10.5% chance to win the popular vote but lose the EV. My point is that their models tend to exaggerate/inflate confidence in their math/polls. I see battleground state polls closing rapidly, and have faith that any such LV poll within 6 means Trump is likely ahead in reality.

Yeah 538, no.
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/andrew-davenport/rasmussen-trump-approval-rating-36-among-black-voters

If Trump garners 20% of the black vote, it will be a landslide.

Once. Again. National. Polls. Don't. Matter.

Rapier108 said:

---

Hillary +12
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10Y28J

Electoral landslide for Hillary
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-u-s-polls-june27-1.3654681

Hillary +9
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/08/01/2016.post-dem.convention.pdf

Bunch of last minute state polls, only a few were right.
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/2801502

And this with only a 5 minute search of TA. Plenty of other polls out there which had Hillary in a landslide.

---

You didn't say plenty, you said "most". It's a mathematical impossibility for most polls to be between 10-15 points if the total average stays well below 8 points for the vast majority of the race.

Bulldog73 said:

---

Yeah 538, no.
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/andrew-davenport/rasmussen-trump-approval-rating-36-among-black-voters

If Trump garners 20% of the black vote, it will be a landslide.

---

My guess is there is zero percent chance of that happening.

Dissecting the meaning between plenty and most is really nit picky.

It's common knowledge that the majority of polls had Hillary winning very comfortably up until the day/night of the election. There is no wiggling out of that.

Not sure how much that is worth as it had Biden gathering 400+ electoral votes quite a few times.

otni said:

---

Bulldog73 said:

---

Yeah 538, no.
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/andrew-davenport/rasmussen-trump-approval-rating-36-among-black-voters

If Trump garners 20% of the black vote, it will be a landslide.

---

My guess is there is zero percent chance of that happening.

---

Your guess is wrong. There is a greater than a zero percent chance.

otni said:

---

Bulldog73 said:

---

Yeah 538, no.
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/andrew-davenport/rasmussen-trump-approval-rating-36-among-black-voters

If Trump garners 20% of the black vote, it will be a landslide.

---

My guess is there is zero percent chance of that happening.

---

I agree. I dont think the exit polls will show 20%. They are likely to be higher than 2016 and I think Joe's turnout will suffer.

otni said:

---

Bulldog73 said:

---

Yeah 538, no.
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/andrew-davenport/rasmussen-trump-approval-rating-36-among-black-voters

If Trump garners 20% of the black vote, it will be a landslide.

---

My guess is there is zero percent chance of that happening.

---

Given a good point made on another thread (that Kamala's pre-Floyd polling is irrelevant) also tend to think the odds are low of getting that percentage. What seems a very safe bet though, even just anecdotally, is Trump will get more of that `walkaway' vote than did in 2016 when "what have you got to lose" in leaving the plantation party hadn't even been attempted yet.

rgag12 said:

---

Dissecting the meaning between plenty and most is really nit picky.

It's common knowledge that the majority of polls had Hillary winning very comfortably up until the day/night of the election. There is no wiggling out of that.

---

He was trying to discredit the article by making seem as if Hillary's advantage was greater than it actually was. That's not accurate. Biden has a consistently bigger advantage than Hillary did up to this point in the election.

I'm not saying that means Biden is going to win, but we can at least expect some intellectual honesty about the reality of the situation.

What will be the #1 issue in the election?

If its the economy and we listen to the polls, Trump wins.

You know how you can tell any group, person, or organization, including this poll has a left leaning ideology..... they lie to themeselves, as well as, everyone else.

Jarrin' Jay said:

---

What are the polls going to say after Biden embarrasses himself in all 3 debates......

---

There is no way they are going to let Biden debate. They will get him out of it somehow

JBenn06 said:

---

Jarrin' Jay said:

---

What are the polls going to say after Biden embarrasses himself in all 3 debates......

---

There is no way they are going to let Biden debate. They will get him out of it somehow

---

What will the polls say when he refuses to debate?

I actually think Biden will do ok in the debates. They'll define the rules of the debates to be extremely narrow with no extemporaneous discussion allowed. The candidates won't be able to deviate from the agreed to topics. Biden will be prepared extremely well to answer questions on the topics.

Basically it will be a joke of a "debate" and the media will carry his water exclaiming how great he did.