The question is whether or not Trump will actually do the things he said he's going to do during the campaign. The truth is that unemployment is low and inflation is already back lower than wage growth, so if he were to make only minimal changes to generally maintain the status quo the public is eventually going to decide things have gotten better and he'll get credit for that. But I don't think that's what he's going to do.
I think Trump will go all in on tariffs like he's been saying he will and that will have an awful effect on the economy including increasing inflation. People complain about their grocery bills now? Just wait until tariffs hit the nearly $200 billion worth of agricultural imports that get shipped into this country every year. And the countries we are hitting with these new tariffs aren't just going to sit back and do nothing. They'll retaliate with tariffs of their own.
Speaking of grocery prices, let's talk about mass deportation. If it actually happens, it's going to hit a couple of industries pretty hard. Agriculture and construction are two of the top ones. Everything in those areas is going to get more expensive. Including new homes and groceries. You may think it's worth it, but this election has shown how upset people get when the things they buy get more expensive.
I expect him to cut off aid to Ukraine but for that war to continue to drag on, likely for several more years. Will he try and pull the US out of NATO? Maybe. A full tilt turn to isolationism would have consequences for the world in general, none of them good as far as I see it. There's this conservative idea that foreign nations will do what Trump says because he's a "strong leader". I think the message that is going to get sent is that you can't depend on Trump's America for support. And you know one nation we don't have any security agreements in place with? Taiwan. Admittedly, even I'm in the group that doesn't think China is actually going to start a war here. But I have seen some compelling arguments that because of internal issues there is pressure on China to act sooner rather than later, so perhaps.
In short, I expect us to look back on Trump's second term as roughly equivalent to America's Brexit.
I think Trump will go all in on tariffs like he's been saying he will and that will have an awful effect on the economy including increasing inflation. People complain about their grocery bills now? Just wait until tariffs hit the nearly $200 billion worth of agricultural imports that get shipped into this country every year. And the countries we are hitting with these new tariffs aren't just going to sit back and do nothing. They'll retaliate with tariffs of their own.
Speaking of grocery prices, let's talk about mass deportation. If it actually happens, it's going to hit a couple of industries pretty hard. Agriculture and construction are two of the top ones. Everything in those areas is going to get more expensive. Including new homes and groceries. You may think it's worth it, but this election has shown how upset people get when the things they buy get more expensive.
I expect him to cut off aid to Ukraine but for that war to continue to drag on, likely for several more years. Will he try and pull the US out of NATO? Maybe. A full tilt turn to isolationism would have consequences for the world in general, none of them good as far as I see it. There's this conservative idea that foreign nations will do what Trump says because he's a "strong leader". I think the message that is going to get sent is that you can't depend on Trump's America for support. And you know one nation we don't have any security agreements in place with? Taiwan. Admittedly, even I'm in the group that doesn't think China is actually going to start a war here. But I have seen some compelling arguments that because of internal issues there is pressure on China to act sooner rather than later, so perhaps.
In short, I expect us to look back on Trump's second term as roughly equivalent to America's Brexit.
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