Kurt:
You ask which evidences for God most appeal to me. That's a difficult question to answer because no one evidence or argument jumps out. To me, it's sort of like asking "which is your favorite number?" Anyway, the arguments for God that I can think of off the top of my head include:
- Existence of "Laws" governing the universe. Why does our universe even have laws? Do laws imply a law giver or maker?
- Fine tuning of the universe. There are a whole lot of aspects of the universe that are precisely "just so". To contend that they just happened that way seems to me to be like fish in an aquarium amazed that the random laws of the aquarium set everything "just so" perfectly for the fish.
- Incredible complexity of life, especially cell structure
- Complete inability of random processes to explain life
- Existence of Information. In our experience, information is generated by an intelligence 100% of the time. We have no examples at all of random processes generating information. An obvious major example of information is DNA. To claim that random processes can produce information is a denial of science, of knowledge, and is simply a hopeful assertion completely unsupported by any evidence or data whatsoever.
- Beauty. Why is there beauty in the universe and why are we able to perceive and appreciate it?
- Origin of life. All the necessary "ingredients" had to be present for the first cell to survive, including the cell membrane, DNA/RNA, Organelles, and Biochemical processes
- Origin of humans
- Free will
- Altruism & love
- Irreducible complexity
- Specified complexity
- Discontinuity and explosions in the fossil record
Some of those are more in the way of evidence contradicting pure materialism as an explanation for everything as opposed to affirmative evidences for God. But I think both types of evidence go hand-in-hand.
You also said:
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The teleological and anthropic arguments are interesting, but they require us to ignore the possibility that we lack the creativity or intelligence by simply jumping to 'therefore God'. In my opinion, the most compelling arguments for God still take the form of "We cannot fathom any other answer to this question, therefore it must be God."
That may be true in some cases and with some people, but I don't believe that's always true. Rather, I think that the evidence points to some super-intelligence having created the universe and life.
My come-back to you is that you seem to argue that since we cannot prove the existence of with 100% certainty, beyond any shadow of any doubt, that we are therefore leaping to conclusions. The core of my argument is that's not true, but rather that the cumulative evidence is so overwhelming that it becomes unreasonable to doubt the existence of God. Your argument seems, to me at least, to be the mirror image of the one you describe in the quote above.
You know, there are probably theories out there that the chair I'm sitting in does not truly exist but is either simply a wave function, an artifact of my mind, or some other creative idea. However, for all practical purposes, it's silly for me to deny that my chair exists. My argument is that for all practical purposes, it is just as silly to deny that God exists as it would be to deny that my chair exists.
You say that "A super intelligent alien software engineer that designed a simulation and stuck us in it meets the definition. Without a clear definition."
I agree. That's the first step in abandoning the materialistic explanation for all of existence, including life, that has captured the West for the last 200 years or so. If you agree with that, then the single most important question is whether or not we can identify that "super intelligent alien software engineer".
With regard to my assigning a 70% probability to each of the arguments for God, you respond: "How do we go about assigning likelihoods to any of these arguments?" That's a good question and I readily admit that I pulled 70% out of the air. However, each argument, if it is valid, means that it has >50% chance of being correct. Eventually, with enough of such arguments, then it means that the odds of their being a God is so statistically high as to be essentially 100%.
However, I'm not really making a statistical argument. Rather, I'm trying to point out to you your tendency to poo-poo each argument, by pointing out the lack of certainty of each, without acknowledging their cumulative weight. If I took your approach to everyday life, I'd simply end up sitting in my chair and doing nothing, because I can't "prove" that anything I do or attempt will be effective. We don't live life based on 100% certainties. Rather, we live life based on the preponderance of the overall evidence without picking each point to death.
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In other words, to provide a counter argument against the existence or actions of an infinitely powerful being must be, by definition, an impossible task.
I don't think that's true. All it would take it to show, by a preponderance of the evidence, that each of the evidences for God was caused by materialistic processes. We not only are incapable of doing that, we actually don't have any evidences in support of such arguments.
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The existence of 'something' might be interesting, but it doesn't tell me how to live my life, anything about morality, or anything about purpose. Once the belief becomes fleshed out and we assign purpose and values and meaning to God's intent, then we have something practical. And at that point, we also have the ability to provide more effective counter arguments against. If the God you believe in, created human beings, then there is now a claim that is concrete enough for us to evaluate. Is it reasonable to believe God created humans? Does our complexity prove a designer? Or do biological inefficiencies prove a random process? There is no need for this to turn into a debate human origins - I only mean to demonstrate the type of claim that would allow for a well thought out and reasonable counter argument and explain why 'God created everything' isn't such a claim.
I don't follow your argument at all here. Could you clarify?