The Biblical Accounts of the Hebrew Sojourn in Egypt, the Exodus, and the Conquest

2,487 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 11 mo ago by PA24
Jabin
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Apologies in advance this will be long. I've spent quite a bit of time researching the evidence for and against the Biblical accounts of the Hebrew sojourn in Egypt, their Exodus from Egypt, and their Conquest of Canaan. I have found that substantial evidence exists for all 3 events, despite the well-publicized statements from prominent archaeologists that no evidence exists for any. I'd like to summarize what I've found in a series of posts (it may take a while to get them all written) so that Christians will be encouraged in the trustworthiness of the Biblical accounts and that non-Christians might be willing to give them a second look. I'll post these to both the History and Religion & Philosophy Boards.

First I'd like to address the claim that "no evidence" exists to support the accounts and then, in perhaps a later post, summarize the evidence that does exist.

The claim of "no evidence" is a ridiculous claim and underscores the agenda that the skeptics have. The claim is ridiculous because first because lots of evidence does exist. Just as importantly, it is unrealistic to expect that much evidence would exist, because archaeology is not suited to ensure that all evidence that does exist is found, and because lots of other reasonable explanations exist for the supposedly "missing" evidence. I'll go through each of those last 3 points individually.

It is not reasonable to expect much evidence to exist of any of those three events because:
  • It's been 3,500 years! C'mon, do you really expect much to survive for that long?
  • Archaeology does not uncover complete history, but only discarded scraps from ancient cultures. Ancient Egypt has been dug up and studied more than any other ancient culture, yet what we've uncovered of it has been described as "merely a collection of rags and tatters."
  • Archaeologists who rely on the lack of written records of the Hebrews in Egypt are being disingenuous. There aren't many written records from Egypt of anything.
There aren't many written records of the Hebrews in Egypt because:
  • The Hebrews most likely lived in the Delta region of Egypt, a very wet and humid environment and where the bulk of Egypt's population lived. We know that the Egyptians kept voluminous records in two Delta cities, Heliopolis and Pi-Ramesse. Yet no record at all has survived from the Delta, not even a single scrap.
  • Egypt did not keep censuses.
  • Most of the writings from ancient Egypt we do have are in the form of monumental inscriptions on the tombs of the pharaohs. As such, those inscriptions were propaganda and never, ever mentioned anything negative or any defeat of a pharaoh (except when they recharacterized those defeats as victories).
  • Egyptians viewed writing as supernatural. To not record something, or to remove references to something, was to eradicate it as if it had never occurred. A prime example of this ancient Egyptian practice is the attempt to chisel out and otherwise remove all references to or depictions of Hatshepsut, the female pharaoh. (Scholars still do not know why the attempt to eradicate her occurred. However, she could well have been the daughter of Pharaoh that adopted Moses. The timing fits perfectly.)
The same principles apply to the Exodus and Conquest.
  • Skeptics point to the lack of evidence in the Sinai of a large group of people traveling through it. However, it is now almost universally acknowledged that nomadic groups leave virtually no archaeological trace.
  • There are virtually no written records of anything from that time period from Canaan. No papyrus records survive, and archaeologists have been unable to find libraries of clay tablets that they are almost certain existed at one time (Hazor, the largest and wealthiest city in Canaan, is the prime example).
  • Erosion, destruction, decay, looting, mining, and similar activities over the millennia have removed much of the evidence. For example, Kenyon, who excavated Jericho, lamented that the entire Middle and Late Bronze Age layers (the Ages during which the Biblical events occurred) on top of the Jericho tell had been lost to such factors.

William Dever, who is a very, very prominent archaeologist, surprisingly let the cat out of the bag when he wrote that he is not satisfied with mere evidence, but he demands "irrefutable evidence". That is a level of archaeological evidence that is not demanded or expected of any other historical event.

Archaeology is not adequate to ensure that we can find the evidence that does exist.
  • Archaeologists rarely dig up an entire site due primarily to lack of time and money. Rather, they more commonly dig up only narrow trenches and pits.
  • As a result, the data collected at a particular archaeological site is only a tiny portion of the evidence available at that site and an even smaller portion of the evidence available from an entire region or era.
  • Archaeologists focus almost exclusively on cities, ignoring any evidence that may exist in the vast swaths of land between.
  • While a dig itself may be conducted "scientifically", most archaeologists will readily admit that archaeology itself is not a science:
  • It relies on interpretation by the archaeologist of what is found. Archaeology has been said to be about 10% data and 90% interpretation.
  • Archaeology is non-replicable. Archaeologists alter and destroy the evidence in their excavations. Kenyon, in her excavations at Jericho, actually destroyed all of the sherds she discovered and failed to record their locations. Her "findings" are thus useless to subsequent archaeologists.
  • Archaeology has been unable repeatedly to find evidence that everyone knows exists.
  • For example, Megiddo and Ashkelon are known to have had walls at particular points in their history, yet archaeologists have been unable to find those walls.
  • The Israelites encountered a city named Dibon in the trans Jordan region during the Exodus, but archaeologists have not been able to find anything at that time period at modern Dhiban, which they assume was ancient Dibon. Yet we know for sure that there was an ancient Dibon in the trans Jordan because it appears on multiple maps in ancient Egyptian records.
  • If archaeology is the arbiter of ancient history, then we'd have to conclude that the early Mongol empire did not exist, and that the Saxon, Norman, and Muslim invasions did not occur, because no archaeological evidence of those historical events has ever been found.

In my next post, I'll summarize some of the evidence that does exist for the Sojourn, the Exodus, and the Conquest.
Win At Life
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AG
If about 2,000,000 people left Egypt and all died in one of the 40 stops along the 40 years, there would be 40 spots out in the desert each with 50,000 burials. Is there even one such site with evidence of even a few thousand graves?
Jabin
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Why wouldn't they stop each night, resulting in over 12,000 stops?

But to answer your question, no one knows because no one is looking in the desert, at least not much. We don't even know the route the Israelites took through the wilderness during those 40 years.

And even around settled areas, there are not enough graves for the known population. Kenyan acknowledged that fact, specifically, with regard to Jericho. Or in Avaris, where millions of people may have a lived over the course of hundreds of years, they have only found the graves of a few dozen to a few hundred people. I don't know of any archaeologist who thinks that the lack of graves is evidence of anything, one way or another, regarding any event from ancient history.

Ben-Yosef, who has excavated the massive copper mines in the Aravah valley in southern Israel, attributes them to the Edomites, a nomadic kingdom. Their significance is that, but for the mines, we would have no evidence of Edom at that early date, and certainly not an Edom of that power and significance. Ben-Yosef uses the mines to underscore the invisibility of nomads to anrchaeology and what he calls the architectural bias of archaeologists. By architectural bias he means the tendency of archaeologists to only dig in cities and to focus almost exclusively on structures made out of stone.
ramblin_ag02
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AG
https://texags.com/forums/15/topics/3161792

Older thread on the topic. I fall on the side of a much smaller exodus for a lot of reasons, more like 20,000 men. I think the 600,000 number is based on an inaccurate translation and is somewhat ridiculous given the populations of the area in that age
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Jabin
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Since I first posted this, I've edited it significantly to add supporting facts and details that I did not have in hand at first.

The 600,000 number is definitely open for debate. Some modern scholars have said that the Hebrew word 'eleph should be translated, not as "thousand", but as "group". Thus, rather than 600,000, the correct translation should supposedly be 600 groups.

However, that argument has its own problems. For example, In Exodus 18:21, 24, Numbers 31:14, 48, 52, 54, and Deuteronomy 1:15, the leaders of Israel are referred to as commanders of tens, fifties, hundreds, and thousands. And a census is taken in Numbers 26 and the number of fighting men is precisely 601,730, and I do not believe that the word 'eleph is used in that census.

In Exodus 38, all of the fighting men made a contribution for the construction of the tabernacle of one beka of silver (a half shekel) each. The amount collected was 723,550 bekas, not the 3 or 4,000 that would have been collected if there were only 600 groups of fighting men.

Large numbers are mentioned throughout the Exodus account: 3,000 Israelites were killed at Mt. Sinai, 250 captains and 14,700 of the Congregation rose up against Moses and were killed in the rebellion of Korah. 24,000 were killed in a plague after they committed *****dom with the daughters of Moab, 1000 warriers were recruited from each of the tribes to fight in the war against Midian, and so on and so on. No Israelites would have been left if only 20,000 or so, in 600 groups, were in the mass that left Egypt.

Another problem if 'eleph merely meant a "group" is how to explain the 22,273 firstborn sons of Numbers 3:34 or the 22,000 Levites of 3:39. If 'eleph means a group, then you'd have about as many firstborn sons and Levites as the total number of Israelites.

Finally, every other use of the word 'eleph in the Bible is as the number 1,000.

And the population numbers jive completely with all ancient authors. All of the ancient writers state that Egypt had a population of over 7 1/2 million. Modern scholars are skeptical of that number, but I suspect that is due to the arrogance of modern scholars. I have read probably a dozen articles on population estimates of ancient cities, and they all have glaring flaws in their assumptions and presuppositions. There are plenty of ancient and modern cities with population densities that would support both the ancient writers and the biblical accounts.

It seems that the core of the problem is that people have a hard time conceiving how 2 million or so people could wander through the wilderness for 40 years. It seems impossible. In fact, it is impossible but for the miraculous intervention of God. So is the problem with the numbers, or rather is the problem believing that God miraculously intervened in time and history to save and guide his people?
ramblin_ag02
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AG
My problem is not lack of faith in God to sustain that sort of population. My problem is how badly it contrasts with known history. I said some other points in the other thread, but there are more. Julius Caesar conquered Rome with 20,000 soldiers. The unstoppable Spanish Armada left Spain with 30,000. The Mongols topped out at 150,000 men. Napoleon's army at its peak was 600,000 men, and he basically conquered all of Europe thousands of years later. Yet the Israelites get to the land of Canaan and are scared of the inhabitants? And God says they are too numerous? 600,000 fighting men easily conquers any land until modern times, with the exception of some powerful Chinese dynasties.

The Biblical text and story just doesn't make any sense if you use those numbers. It also explains the small amount of physical evidence, as a migration of 70,000 total people is impressive but happened many times in most locations.
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Jabin
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You raised many good points. The 600,000 number is difficult. However, before we completely abandon that number simply because it doesn't fit our preconceptions and prejudices, consider the following:

The Bible doesn't say there were 600,000 fighting men. It says that there were 603,500 men "from twenty years old and upward, whoever was able to go to war in Israel". (NASB) It is safe to assume that very few, if any, of those men were trained to fight, either individually or collectively. It is probably also safe to assume that very few of those men had weapons and even fewer had armor. Those men were almost certainly in terrible physical condition due to their status as slaves. As I posted, the remains of the slaves from that time period uncovered at Avaris show them to have suffered from malnutrition and numerous diseases.

In Exodus 1:9, Pharaoh is reported to have said "Behold, the people of the sons of Israel are [f]too many and too mighty for us." That is unlikely if the total number of malnourished male slaves over the age of 20, who were also untrained and unequipped, was only 20,000-70,000.

When the Israelites traveled, it is extremely unlikely that they could have brought all 600,000+ men to any single battle. They were probably stretched out for miles and miles, except for unusual circumstances when Moses needed to speak to the entire assembly. Even at Gettysburg, it took Lee's army three days to completely arrive. It is not hard to imagine the Israelites being terrified by an army of 20,000 trained and equipped warriors facing it in battle formation, despite the Israelites seemingly huge advantage in numbers.

History provides innumerable examples of very small forces defeating much larger forces because of better training and better equipment. I'm not sure of the exact number, but most likely tens of thousands of US and Allied combat troops obliterated 900,000+ Iraqi troops in Desert Storm. The number of men in Iraq that were "over 20 years and able to fight" was most likely something around 15 million. During the occupation of Iraq, a mere 2,000 American soldiers occupied a country of around 45 million.

In the Battle of Marathon, 10,000 Greeks defeated 150,000+ Persians. At Thermopylae (which we discussed before in the thread you referenced), 7,000 Greeks held off an army of 300,000 Persians, although Herodotus said it was 1.8 million. (As an aside, I find modern estimates that radically lower ancient numbers both amusing and frustrating. The modern estimates don't really have any hard evidence supporting them. They just refuse to believe that ancient armies or populations could be as big as the ancients describe.)

Bottom line, though, my faith does not rest even one iota on the number of Israelites in the Exodus. There's enough uncertainty in the meaning of the word 'eleph to allow only 20-70,000 people without damaging the Bible's trustworthiness. However, it seems to me that the better evidence is that there actually were 600,000+ men over the age of 20 and able to fight within the group of Hebrews that fled Egypt.
Jabin
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Quote:

It also explains the small amount of physical evidence
Since this is a separate issue, I'm addressing it in a separate post.

The better explanation for the supposed "small amount of physical evidence" is the limitations of archaeology. Exactly what evidence would you expect to find 3 1/2 millennia after the fact from a nomadic people?

Are you looking for evidence from the 40 years of wandering, or evidence from Canaan during the Conquest?

Either way, one would not expect to find any evidence at all. Besides the lack of evidence of the Saxon and Norman conquests of Britain, and the Muslim conquests of North Africa and the Middle East, there is rarely any significant evidence of huge armies at the location of battles we are absolutely certain of. We know for example that a huge Egyptian army fought a huge coalition army of Canaanites at Megiddo shortly before the Exodus. Yet not one shred of evidence of that battle has been found. We know the routes of the Assyrian and Babylonian armies as they traversed through the Middle East in various campaigns, yet not one shred of those armies' passages has ever been found.

Again, "small amount of evidence" is the same as "no evidence", and that is not a valid rationale for concluding anything in archaeology, other than only a small amount of evidence has yet been found. No extensions from that are appropriate.
TheGreatEscape
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Thank you, Jabin.
ramblin_ag02
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AG
I agree. It also doesn't help that Saudi Arabia actively prohibits research regarding anything related to the Old Testament, and there are credible accusations that they destroy evidence that fits the Bible better than the Koran.
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Jabin
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Quote:

600,000 number is based on an inaccurate translation and is somewhat ridiculous given the populations of the area in that age
What do you think the "populations of the area in that age" were?

Bietak, the excavator of Avaris, estimates its population to be somewhere between 200,000-500,000 at the time of the Exodus, inhabited almost entirely by Semitics, and those 200,000-500,000 Semites suddenly disappeared, without explanation, exactly at the time of the Exodus.

Other large cities in the Egyptian Delta that have not been as extensively excavated as Avaris also seem to have experienced a sudden depopulation of Semites exactly at the time of the Exodus.

Several different ancient authors state that Egypt's population was 7.5 million. They do not specify if that included slaves or was just Egyptians. Either way, though, that population size, together with the populations of Avaris and other cities in the Delta, makes the 600,000 number anything but ridiculous.

Other modern archaeologists have poo-poo'd the number of Israelites by estimating that the total population of Canaan was only 100,000-200,000. Yet in Amenhotep's quick excursion into southern Canaan, he brought back 100,000 captives as slaves. He certainly did not depopulate all of Canaan. That number immediately disproves all of the modern population estimates of Canaan.

Modern estimates of ancient populations are based on arbitrary categories, such as assumed water available to a city, the size of the city and its assumed population density, the agricultural production capacity of the area, and so forth. Those same estimators, however, completely ignore both ancient and modern cities in which the known population radically exceeds what would be calculated using those estimation methodologies. Denying the reality of ancient large populations because we simply cannot figure out how they did it is essentially the same as concluding that aliens built the pyramids because we cannot figure out how the Egyptians built them.
ramblin_ag02
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AG
Like I said, that was only one point of evidence. Let's look at others. God specifically says that the Israelites were not numerous enough to take possession of the entire Holy Land. That's a nonsensical statement since it took until 1950 to reach those numbers. So 2 million people wasn't enough to take hold of Israel in the Bronze Age, even though the population was less than that until 1950? Doesn't make sense.

Let's do the Jordan River crossing next. The priests held the Ark in the middle of the Jordan River while the rest of the Israelites crossed. It's estimated that a well trained and tightly packed Roman legion could pass a specific point in 30 minutes on a good road. Let's put that as the absolute best case scenario, as the Jordan River bed was not a well paved road, and the Israelties were not extensively trained Roman legionaries. Even so, scaling 5,000 people in 30 minutes to 2,000,000 people in total gives a number of about 200 hours. At minimum and under ideal circumstances, that amounts to over a week that the priests are holding the Ark waiting for everyone to pass. If you instead take a number of 70,000 then you're looking at 7 hours, best case. Go read Joshua 3 again and see which fits better.

The numbers I've seen for the population of Egypt were about 2-3 million, but 7.5 is within an order of magnitude. That's an estimated population of the entire empire of Egypt including the entire course of the Nile and a lot of north Africa. That would mean that 25% of the population of Egypt was Hebrews, and they were all concentrated in one small area. To put that in modern terms, that's like having an empire the size of California. California has about 40 million people. The equivalent would be 10 million people of a single ethnicity as slaves living in an isolated area. There's no way that the remaining 5-6 million Egyptians, spread over their entire empire, could oppress 2 million consolidated Hebrews. There's no historical precedent
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ramblin_ag02
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AG
Most of the historical populations were reduced from the accounts due to historians looking around and going "that doesn't make sense". For instance, if you're a historian in 1850 looking at the Holy Land, you'll only see about 350,000 inhabitants and the population being relatively stable for hundreds of years. The idea that 6-7 times that many marched in and there was room leftover is nonsensical, especially before more modern agriculture and sanitation. You'll still find very large numbers of people in China, India and other parts of Asia.

Population size is a close to a science as you'll get in history. Take a particular climate, a particular amount of arable land, particular known crop and animal varieties, and a particular level of technology, and you can get a pretty good upper bound on a population size.
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TheGreatEscape
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Thank you, Ramblin. This is getting interesting.
Jabin
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First, you make really good points, all of which are valid. However, you and others skeptical of the numbers make it seem like an open and shut case. I don't think it is that at all.

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God specifically says that the Israelites were not numerous enough to take possession of the entire Holy Land. That's a nonsensical statement since it took until 1950 to reach those numbers. So 2 million people wasn't enough to take hold of Israel in the Bronze Age, even though the population was less than that until 1950? Doesn't make sense.
I sort of remember seeing that in the Bible, but do not remember where and cannot find it with a quick search. Do you mind providing the book, chapter, and verse? Was it in Deut. 20:1 where God tells them not to be afraid when they see "horses, chariots, and people more numerous than you"?

Assuming that your original is a correct summary of what God said, what did he mean by that? Almost immediately after arrival in Canaan, the Israelites dispersed. Each group was faced with its own different and powerful enemies. Those in Judah were faced with the newly arrived and powerful Philistines. Those in trans-Jordan were faced with the powerful tribes of Edom, Moab, and perhaps the Amorites. Did God mean that the Israelites were not numerous enough yet for each tribe to be able to resist the enemies that they would face? In specific battles, the Israelites involved could well have been outnumbered by the group or coalition that they were facing.

Quote:

Let's do the Jordan River crossing next. The priests held the Ark in the middle of the Jordan River while the rest of the Israelites crossed. It's estimated that a well trained and tightly packed Roman legion could pass a specific point in 30 minutes on a good road. Let's put that as the absolute best case scenario, as the Jordan River bed was not a well paved road, and the Israelties were not extensively trained Roman legionaries. Even so, scaling 5,000 people in 30 minutes to 2,000,000 people in total gives a number of about 200 hours. At minimum and under ideal circumstances, that amounts to over a week that the priests are holding the Ark waiting for everyone to pass. If you instead take a number of 70,000 then you're looking at 7 hours, best case. Go read Joshua 3 again and see which fits better.

Lots of assumptions in your calculations. The road confined the Roman legions to the width of the road. The Bible does not tell us how wide the Jordan crossing was. If it was a lot wider than a Roman road, then we really have no idea how many people could cross in a given amount of time.

You also appear to assume that the same Levites would have had to hold the ark during the entire crossing. Why is that a valid assumption? The Bible does not state that. There were 20,000+ male Levites who could easily have spelled each other during the crossing.

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The numbers I've seen for the population of Egypt were about 2-3 million, but 7.5 is within an order of magnitude. That's an estimated population of the entire empire of Egypt including the entire course of the Nile and a lot of north Africa.
You are correct that virtually all modern scholars estimate ancient Egypt's population at 2-3 million. But multiple ancient authors state that it was 7.5 million.

Quote:

That would mean that 25% of the population of Egypt was Hebrews, and they were all concentrated in one small area. To put that in modern terms, that's like having an empire the size of California. California has about 40 million people. The equivalent would be 10 million people of a single ethnicity as slaves living in an isolated area. There's no way that the remaining 5-6 million Egyptians, spread over their entire empire, could oppress 2 million consolidated Hebrews. There's no historical precedent
You are incorrect. The Hebrews were located in the Delta region, which was and continues to be the largest cultivated area of Egypt with the largest population. Today, 39 million out of Egypt's total population of 104 million. The Delta occupies at least ~25,000 sq. km of Egypt's roughly 33,000-40,000 sq. km. of agricultural land.

And there's plenty of historical precedent for the oppression of such a large group of slaves. In 1860, 43.7% of the population of Georgia were slaves, 57.2% of S. Carolina, and 46.9% of Louisiana.

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For instance, if you're a historian in 1850 looking at the Holy Land, you'll only see about 350,000 inhabitants and the population being relatively stable for hundreds of years.
There's the problem. What basis do 1850 historians have for assuming that the Holy Land was the same in 1400 BC as it was in 1850 AD? What was the climate like in 1400 BC? What was the ecology like? We can see in Europe how incredibly fast environmental conditions, ecology, and carrying capacity can change almost overnight (Europe was almost completely deforested over a few hundred years). There is significant evidence that the Holy Land was much wetter and more heavily vegetated in 1400 BC, or, to put it another way, there is significant evidence of deforestation and denudation of the soil since ancient times. That change is believed to have suddenly occurred right after the date of the Exodus, due to a rapid population growth.

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Population size is a close to a science as you'll get in history.
It's not a science at all since there is no way to verify the population estimates and all of the available data shows that those estimates are badly wrong. Each of the scholars determine some population coefficient, but their results vary considerably. Also, the population estimates are based solely or primarily on urban areas, while we know that the majority of the Israelites were pastoralists. Some of the population estimates are based on assumed maximum agricultural production, but those same estimates are contradicted by records of grain exports far in excess of the estimated maximum.

Additionally, ancient records support the high numbers. As I stated previously, Amenhotep claims to have captured and brought back as slaves over 100,000 people from Canaan. Sennacherib from Assyria claims to have taken 200,150 people into exile from just Judah.

Ancient Ebla actually kept records of its population, so it is the only city from ancient times for which we have hard data. Ebla, according to its own records, had a population of 260,000 people in an area of only 140 acres, a number far, far greater than could be reached by any estimate methodology.

Modern Manhattan has a population density of ~26,000/sq.km., the highest of any American city. But ancient Rome had a density 3x greater (roughly equal to the density of modern Hong Kong), a density that is impossible based on modern estimation metrics.


ramblin_ag02
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AG
Exodus 23:27-30 talks about how the Israelites are too few to conquer Canaan.

You put down good thoughts as well, and I admit I'm no historian that can give you better arguments. Population overestimation is thought to be somewhat pervasive. It's common when talking about battles as well, but in that case both sides have reasons to exaggerate. It's always better if everyone thinks your army is bigger than it is, and win or lose a more numerous opponent makes you look better
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Sapper Redux
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You're putting an odd amount of trust in ancient numbers that are well known to be exaggerated. The agricultural techniques of that era could not physically sustain the populations you're claiming. Not by a long shot. And that level of population would have left far more of an archeological mark. Rome is a poor choice for an example since it was the metropole of a huge empire that drew from huge swaths of land. Oh, and the population numbers for Ebla include the kingdom, not just the city.
Jabin
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Quote:

You're putting an odd amount of trust in ancient numbers that are well known to be exaggerated.
If you substituted "well known" with "commonly claimed" I would agree with you. However, there's no convincing evidence that they were exaggerated.

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The agricultural techniques of that era could not physically sustain the populations you're claiming.
That's the claim but we really don't know and certainly can't prove that claim. Just because we don't know how the ancients did it doesn't mean that they couldn't do it. If the pyramids had been dismantled during antiquity, we'd now claim that they never existed and were only a myth.

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And that level of population would have left far more of an archeological mark.
Who says? What archaeological mark, exactly? You need to read more by Erez Ben-Yosef (who, ironically, is at Tel Aviv University just down the hall from Israel Finkelstein). As my earlier posts have pointed out, archaeology provides us only "rags and tatters" of the past and we only find a tiny percentage of the rags and tatters that exist in the archaeological record.

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Rome is a poor choice for an example since it was the metropole of a huge empire that drew from huge swaths of land.
You are correct, but Rome is used to show that the assumptions and models used by modern estimators are not necessarily correct, relying upon unfounded assumptions like they do. Unless we know the "swaths of land" that other ancient cities drew upon with certainty, and we know with certainty the agricultural capacity of that land, and unless we know for certain other potential sources of provisions, we cannot begin to estimate the population of an ancient city based on agricultural capacity.

As I pointed out above, such agricultural capacity estimates have been shown to be wrong by records showing grain exports from areas where modern experts claim there was insufficient agricultural capacity to feed the domestic population. In addition, Thutmose III's records of the grain he took from Megiddo as tribute are staggering in their amount. Again, modern "experts" poo-poo those amounts, claiming that they're exaggerated, but the only evidence that they're exaggerated is that the so-called experts simply do not believe them.

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Oh, and the population numbers for Ebla include the kingdom, not just the city.
According to what I've read, one of the tablets found at Ebla stated that the city itself had a population of 260,000. I'll need to look at this some more.

ETA: The epigrapher who translated the tablets, Giovanni Pettinato, seems to agree with you. His statement is that the tablet "obviously" refers to greater Ebla, without providing any further explanation of why it was obvious or what he meant by "greater Ebla" (did he mean a larger metropolitan area or the entire region controlled by the city?). However, in an interview by the New York Times he and his supervising archaeologist Paolo Matthiae seem to have claimed that the population was for the city alone. The Library of Congress, in its "Places in the News" website, also asserts that the population of 260,000 was of the city alone.

Another data point is that there seems to be a consensus that there were 11,700 civil servants in the city itself. If that's correct, it's hard to square with a city that has a total population of only 30,000 or so (a common alternative number for the city of Ebla's population). If the total population includes children (those numbers typically do), and you assume 2.5 children/family, then that would mean that there were approx. 6,700 families in Ebla, or a total of 6,700 men. It is probably safe to assume that women were not civil servants in ancient Ebla, so the numbers for the smaller population simply do not add up.

This illustrates the problems of making conclusive generalizations from archaeology and archaeological records. We have only a tiny fraction of them, and we have no idea of the context (historical, cultural, religious, or other contexts) in which they were written that could wildly change their meaning and interpretation. We interpret them through our own modern lenses, including the lenses of what makes sense to us and what we see around us today.
DirtDiver
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Evidence for Ancient Israel Discovered in Egypt
PA24
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AG
Dude is really nails with his research.

Watch this short one on Babylon.



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