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I just hope the weatherman is correct for once... Friday night and Saturday showers would be wonderful.

[This message has been edited by TexasRebel (edited 11/15/2007 8:53a).]

Did you not notice that 10% and 30% or were you just too enthralled by the little pictures?

Would you care to state your version of what those "% chances" mean?

I'll be back later to correct you...again.

This is more entertaining than watching Tim Russert with his little marker board figure probablilities of Gore winning the election in '00.

What is popular is not always right
What is right is not always popular

10% and 30% mean it's a longshot to get rain, unfortunately.

10% and 30% mean that should it rain, it will rain on 10% and 30% of the area being monitored.

exactly how much of a chance there is that it will actually rain is anybodys guess, but somebody seems to think the conditions will be right for precipitation.

I believe you are mistaken, TR. Rain percentages refer to probabilities of rain given the current/forecasted weather conditions. For example, if it rained 3 times out of the last 10 times there were similar weather conditions, then the forecast is for a 30% chance of rain, which means there is also a 70% chance that it won't rain.

wow, so are you ready to "correct" me again? Or, by all means, continue to make yourself look like an idiot.

[This message has been edited by jcadeh (edited 11/15/2007 9:04p).]

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10% and 30% mean that should it rain, it will rain on 10% and 30% of the area being monitored.

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This isn't right. The percentage refers to past conditions as oldyeller explained. http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/definitions/definePoP12.html


If a "30% chance" meant that 30% of the area would get rain IF it rained, what good would such a percentage be? "You'll have a 30% chance of getting wet, but there's only a 50% chance of that!"

[This message has been edited by NoACDamnit (edited 11/15/2007 9:06p).]

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If a "30% chance" meant that 30% of the area would get rain IF it rained, what good would such a percentage be? "You'll have a 30% chance of getting wet, but there's only a 50% chance of that!"

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and have you ever known the forecasts to be much more accurate?

The theory I posted was how I learned it twice. I did some searching and I was wrong...get over it (directed at []1).

[This message has been edited by TexasRebel (edited 11/15/2007 9:50p).]

I'm confused....

So, in 30% of the area covered there is a 100%chance of rain?

Rebel, you being wrong is just as sure the sun will rise tomorrow. It's something I've grown to expect.

that's because you're wrong a lot...

and you must not expect to see daylight everyday...

[This message has been edited by TexasRebel (edited 11/15/2007 11:23p).]

Is that seriously what you think the percentage means? wow

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So, in 30% of the area covered there is a 100%chance of rain?

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The way he thought it was worked was that in 30% of the area there would be SOME chance of rain, thus making the 30% an entirely useless figure.

doing a bit more poking around in this topic...

I've found that I may have just confused two different interpretations...

the first is the "similar conditions" theory, and the second is a method/theory (whatever) that a 25% chance means that it is predicted to rain in the area for 6 hours that day, and a 100% chance means it is supposed to rain the entire day...

a straight dope classic dated 8-8-1986

it's seems it has historically been pretty unclear as to what exactly the percentages mean, and the answer has not always been the same. When I inquired about what made such a seemingly unpredictable event (to a 3rd or 4th grader, hell I don't remember) predictable, I was given the answer that I remember...I may have been given multiple theories and my 8 year old mind just jumbled them together.

any links that give a little more info than that POS NOAc gave would be appreciated.

I love you too.

First off, I was taught the same theory that texasrebel mentioned when i was a kid. I didn't know it was wrong till my friend who does the weather for KANM told me.

Second, can we focus on the important thing, there is a chance of rain, which is a far sight better than we've been able to say recently. Lets all pray the rain does fall and we can burn without complications.

NOAc

thanks for not getting on my case about forgetting the winky...it should have been there. Are you comming out this year?

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that's because you're wrong a lot...

and you must not expect to see daylight everyday...

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Ummm...what?

Ah, the great "WTF does the chance-of-rain percentage mean?" debate.

I have seen TR's explanation used by weathermen occasionally when trying to explain it on screen, so it's not like he's smoking crack. One of the weathermen worked with me and used the same explanation, but mentioned there were other methods/meanings. TR's method never made sense for the reasons already posted and never held much water. But, then again, I fall into the last section of "liars, damn liars, and statisticians" mantra.

The method I use is as follows:
-go outside
-look at the sky
-if I get water in my eyes, I put on my rainsuit and the windshield and go on my way


Scott Coker '92

Cokeman, using your method...

the forcast looks up...

it's 5:40 in Aggieland and it's rainy and gloomy...

...I can't say the weather has ever looked any better.

7PM, pouring down. Rebel, good forecast analysis.