Kansas Kid said:

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Tanker123 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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Does he know you can't edit your bets like he edits his posts?

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It really does not matter because I will make bank. My problem will be making too much money.

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I think you are so full of it your eyes are brown. Making too much money? lol

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I don't think he is full of it but I do think he will find the model doesn't work over time like he thinks it does.

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I looked at the intersection of very talented teams and their performances. That paradigm will not change.

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Like Kansas over tu at Austin
App State over A&M and Michigan
Utah over USC
Kansas over OU
TCU in 2022 over a number of team.
Kansas State over a large number of teams the last 3 decades
Etc

There are numerous examples of teams with a lot of 4 and 5 star talent losing to teams with poorly ranked talent. Nebraska won 3 titles in 4 years in the 90s without a class ranked in the top 10.

This is why a lot of us are skeptical of your model but again, good luck next year.

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I am fine with that. I will start this year with $1,400. Let's see if I am right at the end of this coming season. I want to see an immense disparity in talent when I bet on games. Unfortunately, this model does not apply to the Ags in some games.

So don't bet on those games looser moran

if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

then post ONE pick per week. that small data set won't reveal your method, but keeps you honest. I bet you go .55 or worse on your published picks, if you have the guts to post them.

Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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lol that surprises nobody that you won't post your picks. And nobody will believe just how "too much money you make" next season as you put this "system" in place. And yes, the whole purpose of your posting of this great methodology you have come up with is to seek validation.

But, of course, we have your word to go on.

one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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lol that surprises nobody that you won't post your picks. And nobody will believe just how "too much money you make" next season as you put this "system" in place. And yes, the whole purpose of your posting of this great methodology you have come up with is to seek validation.

But, of course, we have your word to go on.

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Look dude. I rode in helicopters and 70 ton M1 tanks. I have authored two books, helped many veterans, and civilians with PTSD on my own time and dime. Now I am a professional gambler. I don't need validation from anyone but my wife who I support fully in order to make her life more comfortable. I know what I have achieved. I don't give a rats ass about validation from posters online. lol

Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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Why would that be silly? You're not playing against anyone here or how people bet won't impact you. That sounds like a bit of a copout answer.

StinkyPinky said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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Why would that be silly? You're not playing against anyone here or how people bet won't impact you. That sounds like a bit of a copout answer.

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You are not a strategic thinker. The aggregate of the actions of bettors can cause Vegas to change the odds. I don't want to open up a can of worms.

Tanker123 said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

---

I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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lol that surprises nobody that you won't post your picks. And nobody will believe just how "too much money you make" next season as you put this "system" in place. And yes, the whole purpose of your posting of this great methodology you have come up with is to seek validation.

But, of course, we have your word to go on.

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Look dude. I rode in helicopters and 70 ton M1 tanks. I have authored two books, helped many veterans, and civilians with PTSD on my own time and dime. Now I am a professional gambler. I don't need validation from anyone but my wife who I support fully in order to make her life more comfortable. I know what I have achieved. I don't give a rats ass about validation from posters online. lol

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Then what's the point of starting this thread? Post one pick a week, i dare ya!

Tanker123 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Ghost of Bisbee said:

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Facts, OP, facts

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I believe him when he says he has a model that would have worked last year for the number of games he used but I doubt it will work over time. I myself have come up with systems in the stock market based on historical data but most of them didn't work going forward. A few models did work but the stock market makes most people money over time while Vegas takes it from almost everyone.

The only reason I gamble is for entertainment and I know going in, I will lose money over time.

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Your assumption is wrong. The fundamentals have not changed.

I tweaked nothing. I asked myself a question, then researched the answer. The answer immediately illuminated something completely unexpected in regard to the requisite variables to develop the 139 model. The beauty is the simplicity of the paradigm and facilitates a logical approach to betting as opposed to relying on luck.

Perfection can be an illusive concept, but I found the perfect system for last season. However, I expect some imperfection this year and purposely built in some lost bets to see what imperfection looks like in my projections.

I firmly believe losing bets will materially slow the growth of my account but will not impact the principal if I diversify my bets each weekend. Considering the findings of the 139 research, I expect to lose a handful of bets at most which means I will win a significant number of the bets.

Let's look at 2023. Alabama was favored by 10.5. I would have bet Alabama winning the game based on the 139 model. $100 would have a payout around $126. That's easy money. The beauty is compounding the winnings on a weekly basis.

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this has to be a troll, there is no scenario where a 10.5 point favorite was +126 ML. that makes absolutely no sense, it doesn't work like that at all.

very strong hardest working man in oil vibes.

ac04 said:

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Tanker123 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Ghost of Bisbee said:

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Facts, OP, facts

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I believe him when he says he has a model that would have worked last year for the number of games he used but I doubt it will work over time. I myself have come up with systems in the stock market based on historical data but most of them didn't work going forward. A few models did work but the stock market makes most people money over time while Vegas takes it from almost everyone.

The only reason I gamble is for entertainment and I know going in, I will lose money over time.

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Your assumption is wrong. The fundamentals have not changed.

I tweaked nothing. I asked myself a question, then researched the answer. The answer immediately illuminated something completely unexpected in regard to the requisite variables to develop the 139 model. The beauty is the simplicity of the paradigm and facilitates a logical approach to betting as opposed to relying on luck.

Perfection can be an illusive concept, but I found the perfect system for last season. However, I expect some imperfection this year and purposely built in some lost bets to see what imperfection looks like in my projections.

This Troll will consistently beat Vegas and make a ton of money! hahaha

I firmly believe losing bets will materially slow the growth of my account but will not impact the principal if I diversify my bets each weekend. Considering the findings of the 139 research, I expect to lose a handful of bets at most which means I will win a significant number of the bets.

Let's look at 2023. Alabama was favored by 10.5. I would have bet Alabama winning the game based on the 139 model. $100 would have a payout around $126. That's easy money. The beauty is compounding the winnings on a weekly basis.

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this has to be a troll, there is no scenario where a 10.5 point favorite was +126 ML. that makes absolutely no sense, it doesn't work like that at all.

very strong hardest working man in oil vibes.

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Since you are ignorant, then let me educate you. I don't post what has not been researched:

Kickoff from Kroger Field in Lexington is set for noon ET. The Crimson Tide are 11-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Kentucky odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 47. Why don't you get off your ass and research the ML.

The point of starting this thread is to illuminate an average Joe like me can randomly kick a rock and perhaps find a treasure underneath it by luck. It's not rocket science. I bet on teams that have immensely more talent than the opponents. My goal is to increase my money tenfold this year, then replicate this in year 2.

My strategic vision is having at least $100,000 to bet with each college football weekend. I can easily make $20,000 a weekend. Let's say Alabama is favored by 14 points over Kentucky. I would bet Alabama to win and the payout would be 1.2 times my bet.

Ok let's talk about Custer and my planning. What are the huge differences?

On Saturdays I will spread my bets on 5 games to mitigate any losses I might incur. It's important to diversify. The 139 paradigm tells me I won't lose many bets

Y'all can ***** ad nauseam, but I would be remiss in revealing the methodology. Why on earth do I want people making the same bets as mine?

What I start is immaterial. My goal for year 2 is at least $100k. That's where the big bucks are at.

I don't need attention. Life is great. I retired at 43! lol

I know enough finance and accounting to conduct a cash flow analysis and to compute the IRR.

I know this about M1 tanks because I did more than ride in them:
- The sabot round velocity is one mile per second. It is essentially a 20 lbs uranium depleted dart. Imagine the joules!
- It has a coaxial MG.
- It is accurate because the ballistic computer takes environmental inputs, location and speed of the tank and the target to create a solution.
- It has a 1500 HP turbine engine that can be removed in seconds.
- The army will start installing Israeli Trophy Systems to counter incoming air threats.
- Tanks can use identical formations and movement techniques as the infantry. It depends on the threat.

I am not at liberty to talk about army aviation.

Custer's problem was he did not follow orders and had time to conduct a Deliberate Attack but turned the battle into a Hasty Attack. In warfare it is imperative to tease out the facts for planning purposes and rely on strong assumptions that are essentially facts that must be proven by the battle. Custer went off a lot of assumptions and got killed for his approach to the battle in the Hasty Attack. I am not conducting a Hasty Attack, and I am using facts and strong assumptions.

nevermind, good luck man

ac04 said:

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Tanker123 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Ghost of Bisbee said:

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Facts, OP, facts

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I believe him when he says he has a model that would have worked last year for the number of games he used but I doubt it will work over time. I myself have come up with systems in the stock market based on historical data but most of them didn't work going forward. A few models did work but the stock market makes most people money over time while Vegas takes it from almost everyone.

The only reason I gamble is for entertainment and I know going in, I will lose money over time.

---

Your assumption is wrong. The fundamentals have not changed.

I tweaked nothing. I asked myself a question, then researched the answer. The answer immediately illuminated something completely unexpected in regard to the requisite variables to develop the 139 model. The beauty is the simplicity of the paradigm and facilitates a logical approach to betting as opposed to relying on luck.

Perfection can be an illusive concept, but I found the perfect system for last season. However, I expect some imperfection this year and purposely built in some lost bets to see what imperfection looks like in my projections.

I firmly believe losing bets will materially slow the growth of my account but will not impact the principal if I diversify my bets each weekend. Considering the findings of the 139 research, I expect to lose a handful of bets at most which means I will win a significant number of the bets.

Let's look at 2023. Alabama was favored by 10.5. I would have bet Alabama winning the game based on the 139 model. $100 would have a payout around $126. That's easy money. The beauty is compounding the winnings on a weekly basis.

---

this has to be a troll, there is no scenario where a 10.5 point favorite was +126 ML. that makes absolutely no sense, it doesn't work like that at all.

very strong hardest working man in oil vibes.

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I think he means he would net $26.

If you don't need validation, why did you post this topic on 2 different boards?

I gotta say, this has been one of the easiest kick-the-hornet's nest opportunities in my time on TexAgs. You are so desperate to prove how smart you are without accepting the challenge of the only way to validate your claims that I'm starting to imagine you as Will Ferrell's version of The Architect on the MTV Movie Awards 20 years ago saying words that you don't really know the meaning of.

TX AG 88 said:

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then post ONE pick per week. that small data set won't reveal your method, but keeps you honest. I bet you go .55 or worse on your published picks, if you have the guts to post them.

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Since he is betting heavy favorite money lines, he will win more than 55% of the time almost assuredly but the question is can he overcome the Vig over time. I have shown the math based on the last 20 years and he has a lot to overcome because the Vig goes up on those bets to more like 12-15% vs 10 for a spread bet.

Kansas Kid said:

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TX AG 88 said:

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then post ONE pick per week. that small data set won't reveal your method, but keeps you honest. I bet you go .55 or worse on your published picks, if you have the guts to post them.

---

Since he is betting heavy favorite money lines, he will win more than 55% of the time almost assuredly but the question is can he overcome the Vig over time. I have shown the math based on the last 20 years and he has a lot to overcome because the Vig goes up on those bets to more like 12-15% vs 10 for a spread bet.

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He had better be winning way more than 55% of the time, because as that Alabama Kentucky example (bet $100 to win $26) shows, it will take 3-4+ wins to overcome one loss on those kinds of lines.

txags92 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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TX AG 88 said:

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then post ONE pick per week. that small data set won't reveal your method, but keeps you honest. I bet you go .55 or worse on your published picks, if you have the guts to post them.

---

Since he is betting heavy favorite money lines, he will win more than 55% of the time almost assuredly but the question is can he overcome the Vig over time. I have shown the math based on the last 20 years and he has a lot to overcome because the Vig goes up on those bets to more like 12-15% vs 10 for a spread bet.

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He had better be winning way more than 55% of the time, because as that Alabama Kentucky example (bet $100 to win $26) shows, it will take 3-4+ wins to overcome one loss on those kinds of lines.

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He only plans on losing AT WORST 12 out of 100 games, so he should be fine..

boy09 said:

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txags92 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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TX AG 88 said:

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then post ONE pick per week. that small data set won't reveal your method, but keeps you honest. I bet you go .55 or worse on your published picks, if you have the guts to post them.

---

Since he is betting heavy favorite money lines, he will win more than 55% of the time almost assuredly but the question is can he overcome the Vig over time. I have shown the math based on the last 20 years and he has a lot to overcome because the Vig goes up on those bets to more like 12-15% vs 10 for a spread bet.

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He had better be winning way more than 55% of the time, because as that Alabama Kentucky example (bet $100 to win $26) shows, it will take 3-4+ wins to overcome one loss on those kinds of lines.

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He only plans on losing AT WORST 12 out of 100 games, so he should be fine..

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General Custer had a plan too...

Tanker123 said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

---

I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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lol that surprises nobody that you won't post your picks. And nobody will believe just how "too much money you make" next season as you put this "system" in place. And yes, the whole purpose of your posting of this great methodology you have come up with is to seek validation.

But, of course, we have your word to go on.

---

Look dude. I rode in helicopters and 70 ton M1 tanks. I have authored two books, helped many veterans, and civilians with PTSD on my own time and dime. Now I am a professional gambler. I don't need validation from anyone but my wife who I support fully in order to make her life more comfortable. I know what I have achieved. I don't give a rats ass about validation from posters online. lol

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And none of that has anything to do with having a magical betting "system" that you profess to have. The one you brag about but won't post your bets beforehand as evidence. Your posts indicate the crying out for attention.

So you won, what was it, $1,400? I think you are going to need to do better than that to call yourself a professional gambler.

Have you ever heard of Walter Mitty?

I wonder how many of those barrels they are finding in dried out Lake Meade contain the bodies of "professional gamblers" with foolproof betting systems.

one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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lol that surprises nobody that you won't post your picks. And nobody will believe just how "too much money you make" next season as you put this "system" in place. And yes, the whole purpose of your posting of this great methodology you have come up with is to seek validation.

But, of course, we have your word to go on.

---

Look dude. I rode in helicopters and 70 ton M1 tanks. I have authored two books, helped many veterans, and civilians with PTSD on my own time and dime. Now I am a professional gambler. I don't need validation from anyone but my wife who I support fully in order to make her life more comfortable. I know what I have achieved. I don't give a rats ass about validation from posters online. lol

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And none of that has anything to do with having a magical betting "system" that you profess to have. The one you brag about but won't post your bets beforehand as evidence. Your posts indicate the crying out for attention.

So you won, what was it, $1,400? I think you are going to need to do better than that to call yourself a professional gambler.

Have you ever heard of Walter Mitty?

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Now if he drove the M1 or flew the helicopter instead of just being a passenger…..

Tanker123 said:

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StinkyPinky said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

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I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

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Why would that be silly? You're not playing against anyone here or how people bet won't impact you. That sounds like a bit of a copout answer.

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You are not a strategic thinker. The aggregate of the actions of bettors can cause Vegas to change the odds. I don't want to open up a can of worms.

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With all due respect, your comments lead me to believe you are very new to this aren't aware of your surroundings. And not being rude, just a conversation. The simple fact that the line is a reaction by the handicappers to keep the money at $0 is well known and understood. Its 101. Many of us have been doing this for a very long time. My point is I hope you aren't insinuating that the minimum betting volume that would come from Texags by sharing info would result in line movement, because that just isn't possible. For what its worth throughout they years we've had many handicappers come and go and share information. We have always shared freely and usually get a chuckle with the paranoid type. Best of luck with your efforts, hope you do well. Just had to chuckle at the prospect of sharing info here ruining your edge.

come on man, post ONE pick per week! no one here believes you, so there won't be a massive explosion of info getting out there to ruin your secrecy. you can't do better than 55% against Vegas, I'll bet, much less 95+ %!

Kansas Kid said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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if you want the validation you are so desperately craving on this board, you need to post your picks well before Saturday's games each week with specifically how much you bet and on what. No editing of the posts either. I'm sure your system looks amazing right now, from the outside looking in, most of us see it as being like the time Jerry and Elaine thought they had figured out how to sleep together while remaining friends on Seinfeld.

---

I don't need validation. Validation is winning against Vegas consistently. I will not share my picks because posters will learn the methodology I use. That would be infinitely silly. I edit because I can only post 5 times a day.

---

lol that surprises nobody that you won't post your picks. And nobody will believe just how "too much money you make" next season as you put this "system" in place. And yes, the whole purpose of your posting of this great methodology you have come up with is to seek validation.

But, of course, we have your word to go on.

---

Look dude. I rode in helicopters and 70 ton M1 tanks. I have authored two books, helped many veterans, and civilians with PTSD on my own time and dime. Now I am a professional gambler. I don't need validation from anyone but my wife who I support fully in order to make her life more comfortable. I know what I have achieved. I don't give a rats ass about validation from posters online. lol

---

And none of that has anything to do with having a magical betting "system" that you profess to have. The one you brag about but won't post your bets beforehand as evidence. Your posts indicate the crying out for attention.

So you won, what was it, $1,400? I think you are going to need to do better than that to call yourself a professional gambler.

Have you ever heard of Walter Mitty?

---

Now if he drove the M1 or flew the helicopter instead of just being a passenger…..

---

Well, that spoke volumes. Again he's speaking to a wide audience with several that have done equal or more, but don't post about it. I'm with Porkchop now this is attention seeking.

I think you guys are missing a very obvious troll.

Proposition Joe said:

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I think you guys are missing a very obvious troll.

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He could very well be a troll but I have also known a lot of people that truly think they have a system that beats Vegas. A co-worker of mine insisted she had a guaranteed way to make money at craps.

Another one said she made money on the Powerball lottery. She pointed to a $100 win she had as proof she made money. When someone asked her how much she had spent on tickets, she said something like $200 over time. The women honestly didn't think she needed to net her winnings against her losses before saying she had a profitable system.

What is a shame is I have written a book to help people with PTSD heal and it's free. It has helped many veterans and civilians heal. However, I can't share it in this community.

nobody cares, just share your picks next season so we can follow along.

ac04 said:

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nobody cares, just share your picks next season so we can follow along.

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Do you know anyone with PTSD? Obviously, your stupid comment tells me you don't know much about PTSD.

I like helping people get a second chance to acomplish all that they want in their lives.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Tanker123 said:

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What is a shame is I have written a book to help people with PTSD heal and it's free. It has helped many veterans and civilians heal. However, I can't share it in this community.

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Are you afraid that sharing the PTSD book on TexAgs will affect the point spreads in Vegas too much?

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Nope. This thread precludes any desire to give out personal information about myself that can be used against me: No good deed goes unpunished, and I don't want to be disappointed by the community.