You aren't serious unless you bet farms, broham

It's true that you literally can not lose money by betting the money line on favorites. It's math. OP do you post your picks on betstamp so I can follow you? You seem sharp!

Yeah betting ranked teams to win is definitely sharp. Square betters always bet the underdog looking for the big score. Keep up the good work big dog!

Let's help you really make a lot of money. Let's do a side bet. Min 50 games next year. Post the bets here before the game and keep compounding your wagers each week. I have $1000 that says you lose money. I bet others will give you that same opportunity to make a killing on top of your bets.

When nerds try to start participating in new things...

If you win too much, you will be banned from betting sites.

A friend of mine has been banned from two for winning too much.

Tanker's got it all figured out. Sad news for Vegas though. This looks like the end of all those gigantic billion-dollar resorts and casinos. It was good while it lasted...

If this isn't a troll, take last year's results and run a simulation on what you would have made. I have run a simulation on my simple method and I can just barely beat the casinos by about 1% after they take their cut. So I could bet $10,000 a week and make about $100 each week or about $1400 for the year. Similar returns to the stock market but I don't have to do anything or travel to a different state to make money on stocks.

I had a similar genius moment one time in LV at a craps table in the Paris casino. I figured I could make a field bet, and if it didn't hit just double the next one, and so on and so on until it eventually DID hit and Profit!

That's the trip when I learned about table limits.

Ghost of Bisbee said:

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lol

Wtf is going on here

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dude. He has a system. Don't you get it?

I bet you I can tell you the score of every SEC game next year before they even start!

2023 Season

$250 investment

$741 cash out before title game

LMCane said:

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2023 Season

$250 investment

$741 cash out before title game

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I made money this year but 1) I received a number of bonuses that improved my odds and included some free bets and 2) I got lucky and I know over time I will lose money. Vegas wasn't built on winners.

Dufflepud said:

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I had a similar genius moment one time in LV at a craps table in the Paris casino. I figured I could make a field bet, and if it didn't hit just double the next one, and so on and so on until it eventually DID hit and Profit!

That's the trip when I learned about table limits.

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Even if there weren't table limits that limit progressive betting, you would be ended by wallet limits. Thank Vegas for cutting you off.

Really good post OP. For example, Texas was favored by 3.5 over Washington due to its higher % of 4 and 5 start players. The money line was around -180 so if you bet 180 you would have won 100.

Dufflepud said:

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I had a similar genius moment one time in LV at a craps table in the Paris casino. I figured I could make a field bet, and if it didn't hit just double the next one, and so on and so on until it eventually DID hit and Profit!

That's the trip when I learned about table limits.

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Every gambler has this "genius moment", and then you learn that it's called the Martingale System and it has been around since the 1700s. Even without table limits, it only works if you have infinite money. Exponential growth is a killer.

Tanker123 said:

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Boy09. I don't need to use the Martingale System because I will win the vast majority of the bets.

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I was commenting on the other post, not your system.

However, please keep us updated on your progress next season.

Why are you starting this thread now? It is about seven months until college football season.

I'll play along for the heck of it.

If the model is so accurate that you can predict 139 of 139 games, why is your goal 1k to 10k? Why aren't you betting the farm and turning it into 10 farms.

agnerd said:

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Tanker123 said:

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College football is the only sport that I bet on. I like college football because the disparity of talent between two teams can be significant. I don't bet on the spread nor the over/under. I pick which team will win the game. Let's say Alabama plays Rice. Which team will win? The team loaded with 4 and 5 stars or the team with lots of 3 stars? I also like the fact that I can compound my money every weekend should my methodology of picking winning teams is proper.

Spread …. %Gain
-3 points . 74%
-7 … ……… 42%
-10 … .. … 29%
-14 ….. .…. 20%
-17 …… . … 9%

I listed the point spread. I listed the corresponding % gain if you win the bet. Like I said, my model to betting is picking the team that has a huge advantage in talent and will win the game. I think this is a rational approach and eliminates the general need for luck.

For example. I believe last season Alabama was favored to win by 3 points over the Ags. If I placed a $100 bet on Alabama winning, then my payout would have been $174.

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Your numbers are off. A 3 point spread has a 58.4% chance to win the game and and a -160 moneyline. So you will win $100 58.4% of the time and lost $160 41.6% of the time. Averaged out, you lose 8.2% on each money line bet you make.

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Here is further analysis supporting this post. It is based on about 20 years of data using every game from 2001 to 2019. The key is to look at 1000s of data points especially when you are taking the Bama's over Rice games because the upsets are rare but they happen and when you are betting -10000 you are picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.



https://www.theonlycolors.com/2020/9/29/21492301/vegas-always-knows-a-mathematical-deep-dive

This sounds like it should include some poopslaps.

Tanker123 said:

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Like I said earlier, I did research on 139 games and found a model that correctly picked the winner in all of those games last year.

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Researched them and found a model. 139 out of 139. Thousands may believe you, but I don't.

Tanker123 said:

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one safe place said:

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Tanker123 said:

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Like I said earlier, I did research on 139 games and found a model that correctly picked the winner in all of those games last year.

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Researched them and found a model. 139 out of 139. Thousands may believe you, but I don't.

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I don't give a rats ass what you believe or don't believe. I am trying to help you folks, but some of you are too dense to grasp the gift I offered. lol

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Methinks you're a chatGPT bot

Bama has never beat Rice, hth