The chances are higher than that.
People have been arrested and tried for odometer fraud.
Think about it. Every time you have the car worked on, the reading on the odometer is recorded by the dealer. So there is a paper trail unless you do all your own work.
When you sell the car, you must provide a statement concerning the car's milage and include the odometer reading.
If the car shows signs of heavy use but with a low odometer, a prospective buyer might just check it out. If you trade it in at a dealer when buying a new car, the dealer will be more likely to notice those signs.
There is something called carfax reports (
http://www.carfax.com) that purports to detect, among other things, odometer fraud. I assume that they use, among other things, the odometer readings taken by the dealers when you take it in for service.
In one single 2 year period in one state, 2,200 instances of rolling back odometers were discovered.
One other thing. Odometer fraud is not only a crime in Texas, it is also a federal crime.