RPI Futures are out now and have us with a 100% probability of finishing in the top 45 in RPI to virtually guarantee a tourney invitation. It currently figures us having a 30% chance of finishing top 16 and hosting the first weekend. For those of you unfamiliar, RPI Futures is a project by a volley stats contributor that answers the question: "What would the final RPI be if we used win probabilities to project the remaining games on the schedule?" This version uses Pablo ratings which is a win probability model based on past results.
The RPI futures midpoint of wins in the model for us sits at 19. I think that is the median number of wins in the distribution of outcomes based on the simulations - we don't have to achieve this to get into the top 45. This is what I assume is required to finish at our predicted RPI of 23.
To end the season with 19 wins, we would finish at 19-9. If we look ahead to find five more losses, assume two losses to Tennessee, away at Kentucky, and Florida at home. We could take one more loss in the matches at LSU and Mizzou and at home against Georgia and Auburn as well as the hypothetical easy wins vs. South Carolina, Miss St., Ole Miss x2 and Alabama.
So while the models still like us a lot, achieving that predicted win/loss total will require a lot of growth and consistency from the team as Morrison keeps saying in interviews. I guess the upside of possibly getting into the top 16 would include handling all those "expected" wins and stealing a Tenn, KY, or Fla game or two or three.
The downside of finishing closer to a 45 RPI and sneaking into the tourney to face a top seed would have us losing a few more of those "expected" wins and not picking up any unexpected wins.