The next weekend of big-time college football takes place in November. That’s the month when the weather gets chilly, skies turn gray, and contenders separate themselves from pretenders.
It’s the month of college football attrition and elimination. There are more crucial games with College Football Playoff hopes at stake.
Most of those games are scheduled toward the end of the month, but some teams begin November already fighting for their playoff lives.
Twelve teams will comprise the field for the national championship tournament, i.e., CFP.
Some may be undefeated. Most will have one loss.
Yet, there is speculation in some instances a two-loss team from “Power 4” conferences at least have a chance to get in the CFP field. That would depend highly on strength of schedule and quality of wins.
Two losses could be forgiven. Three losses won’t be unless a major conference championship is won.
Therefore, “Power 4” teams with two losses are walking a tightrope in a hurricane. Another misstep is too much to overcome.
With that in mind, here’s a look at two-loss “Power 4” teams and their CFP outlook heading into November. They’re listed in order of best-to-worst chances to back into the playoffs.
Alabama (6-2, 3-2 in SEC)
Best win: Georgia, 41-34
Worst loss: Vanderbilt, 40-35
Outlook: Solid. If the Tide finishes 10-2, it will have victories over Georgia, Missouri, LSU and Wisconsin. Alabama’s only losses were at Vanderbilt and at Tennessee. That would be hard to ignore. The Tide must travel to LSU but then face Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn. Help would likely still be needed. Alabama will be pulling for one-loss Tennessee vs. one-loss Georgia on Nov. 16.
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Coach Prime’s Buffs cracked the AP Top 25 in Week 10, checking in at No. 23.
Colorado (6-2, 4-1 in Big 12)
Best win: Cincinnati, 34-23
Worst loss: Nebraska, 28-10
Outlook: Not bad. The bad loss to Nebraska was in Week 2. Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes have steadily improved. Despite a 31-28 loss to Kansas State, Colorado remains in the thick of the Big 12 championship race. Although the Buffs likely will need to get in as Big 12 champs, they have a strong chance to get to the conference title game. Of the four remaining conference games, three are against opponents (Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma State) at or near the bottom of the standings. They get an open date this week to prepare for a must-win trip to Texas Tech on Nov. 9.
Illinois (6-2, 3-2 in Big Ten)
Best win: Michigan, 21-7
Worst loss: Oregon, 38-9
Outlook: Decent. Illinois may be the fifth-best team in the Big Ten. But the Big Ten doesn’t figure to get any more than four teams into the field. Losses to Oregon and Penn State aren’t bad but will keep the Illini out of the Big Ten Championship Game. Illinois has a great chance to finish 10-2. Minnesota (5-3) is the best opponent remaining on the schedule. That game will be in Champaign. But the Illini still need Indiana (8-0, 5-0) and/or Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) to be dealt at least two losses. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers play on Nov. 23.
LSU (6-2, 3-1 in SEC)
Best win: Ole Miss, 29-26 (OT)
Worst loss: USC, 27-20
Outlook: Dim. Fortunately for the Tigers, one of their losses was in non-conference play vs. USC. They need to run the table from here. Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma remain on the regular season schedule. That might provide an outside shot at winning the SEC Championship. But they’d also need Texas, Georgia and Tennessee to pick up a second conference loss. Or hope A&M loses twice.
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Lane Kiffin’s Rebs began 2024 ranked No. 6 in the nation.
Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 in SEC)
Best win: South Carolina, 27-3
Worst loss: Kentucky, 20-17
Outlook: Bleak. Both losses were against SEC rivals. Losing to Kentucky is a stain that cannot be easily removed. Georgia remains on the schedule. So do road trips to Arkansas and Florida. The Rebels figure to absorb at least one more loss.
Missouri (6-2, 2-2 in SEC)
Best win: Vanderbilt, 30-27 (OT)
Worst loss: Alabama, 34-0
Outlook: Dire. Almost any two-loss “Power 4” team should get in ahead of Missouri. The Tigers have beaten one opponent with a winning record (5-3 Vandy). Their losses to Alabama and Texas A&M were blowouts by a combined score of 75-10. That’s not a playoff resume, especially with no marquee opponents remaining.
Duke (6-2, 2-2 in ACC)
Best win: North Carolina, 21-20
Worst loss: Georgia Tech, 24-14
Outlook: Forget it. Two conference losses and no marquee victories. Still has to play unbeaten Miami on the road.
Syracuse (5-2, 2-2 in ACC)
Best win: UNLV, 44-41
Worst loss: Stanford. 26-24
Outlook: Forget it. Losing to 1-7 Stanford is unforgivable. Two conference losses means almost no chance to reach the ACC Championship Game.
Arizona State (5-2, 2-2 in Big 12)
Best win: Utah, 27-16
Worst loss: Cincinnati, 24-14
Outlook: Forget it. No great wins and a soft schedule. Opponents are a combined 22-33. Woof. Both losses are in conference play. Destined for an obscure bowl game.
Heisman Watch (If my ballot was due today)
Marco Garcia-Imagn Images
Ashton Jeanty and No. 15 Boise State Broncos will be back in action on Friday against SDSU. The game will air on FS1.
1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State, RB: The nation’s leading rusher “only” gained 128 yards and scored the winning touchdown in the Broncos’ 29-24 victory over UNLV. That’s well below his average of 196.5 yards per game, but UNLV has a strong run defense. Jeanty is having such an incredible season that his average per carry “dropped” to 8.65 yards after posting his seventh consecutive 100-yard game. He leads the nation with 1,376 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. At his current pace, Jeanty would finish the regular season with 2,358 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns. He could make a run at Barry Sanders’ single-season record of 2,628 rushing yards.
2. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon, QB: He shined in a 38-9 drubbing of then-No. 20 Illinois. Gabriel completed 18-of-26 passes for 291 yards. He threw touchdown passes of 31, 34 and two yards. He also ran for a touchdown. Gabriel is now ranked ninth in the nation in passing. He has completed 76.2 percent of his passes for 2,371 yards and 18 touchdowns.
3. Cam Ward, Miami, QB: His candidacy took a slight step back with a pedestrian showing vs. Florida State. Fortunately for Miami, he didn’t need to have a stellar performance to beat the Seminoles 36-14. Ward passed for just 208 yards with no touchdowns. He did, however, catch a meaningless touchdown pass with 4-and-a-half minutes left in the game. Ward dropped from No. 1 in the nation in passing to No. 3. He has thrown for 2,746 yards and 24 touchdowns.
4. Travis Hunter, Colorado, WR: OK, I’ll finally add the Buffaloes receiver/DB to the list. Hunter had a great showing last week in a 34-23 victory over Cincinnati. He caught nine passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns. It was the fifth game in which he has exceeded 100 receiving yards and the third game with multiple touchdown catches. Overall, Hunter has 60 receptions for 757 yards and eight touchdowns. As a cornerback, he has broken up seven passes, intercepted two, forced a fumble and posted 21 tackles.
5. Kaleb Johnson, Iowa, RB: He remains fifth on the list because there’s no reason to drop him. Last week, Johnson rushed for 109 yards on 14 carries and scored three touchdowns in a 40-14 victory over Northwestern. His touchdowns came on runs of 26, 41 and 25 yards. Johnson is second in the nation with 1,144 rushing yards. He has scored 16 touchdowns.
Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio State defeated Penn State in Columbus last season, 20-12.
Games to Watch
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State: The Buckeyes are second in the Big Ten in total offense. The Nittany Lions are second in total defense. Penn State is fourth in offense. Ohio State is first in defense. It’s a classic matchup for two teams trying to keep up in the Big Ten race with Oregon and … Indiana.
Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia: True, it’s not a matchup of ranked opponents, but bitter rivalries are always fun. Besides, Florida is quietly playing much better. The Gators have won three of their last four. The loss was in overtime at Tennessee.
No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU: A month ago, who would’ve guessed this would have major implications in the ACC championship race? (Still having issues remembering SMU is in the ACC). Anyway, Pitt is 7-0, 3-0. SMU is 7-1, 4-0. Both are trying to keep up with Clemson and Miami.
No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina: Why not? A&M is getting national attention for its come-from-behind victory over LSU last week. No win comes easy on the road in the SEC, especially in South Carolina. Two of the Gamecocks’ three losses were by two points to Alabama and three points to LSU.
San Diego State at No. 15 Boise State: A Friday night confrontation of foes unbeaten in Mountain West Conference play. Not buying San Diego State? Don’t blame you. But at least you can watch Boise running back Ashton Jeanty continue his Heisman bid.
