ESPN FPI gives us a 56.0% chance of beating Arkansas, and we are 4-point favorites over Arkansas. I am not surprised by these numbers because both teams appear evenly matched. Both Texas A&M and Arkansas lost to nonconference Power 4 opponents, struggled in home wins over Group of 5 opponents, and won their SEC openers on the road by 10+ points each.

I would like a double-digit win over Arkansas for the 2nd year in a row, but this game will likely be close from start to finish. We have won 11 of 12 SEC games against Arkansas, but 6 of those wins were decided by 7 points or fewer, including overtime wins in 2014, 2015, and 2017. Hopefully, we beat Arkansas to improve to 4-1 and start 2-0 in SEC play.

The Georgia at Alabama game could be the greatest game of the regular season. Both Georgia and Alabama are coming off bye weeks. It could be the first of possibly three Georgia vs Alabama games this season because it's quite possible the two meet once again in Atlanta for the SEC Championship and again in the expanded College Football Playoff.

Alabama and Georgia are evenly matched, but Alabama holds a distinct advantage in third down offense and defense. Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country in third-down defense, allowing only 16% of third down conversions. Conversely, Georgia's offense has struggled on third-downs a bit. Georgia is converting only 38% of their third down opportunities, which is 74th in the country. The biggest issue the Bulldogs have faced is they've struggled when they've gotten off schedule. For the season, Georgia's defense has given up 45% of opponent third-downs, which ranks 91st in the country. Alabama has converted 53% of its third downs on offense, good for 12th in the nation.

https://bamahammer.com/posts/alabama-football-has-one-big-edge-over-georgia-that-could-decide-the-game-01j8j2wwhah5