Eight statistical categories to watch as A&M attempts turnaround

Significant improvement in 2023 might be enough for the frustrated Texas A&M football team to be content.

But there is always hope the Aggies will have a dramatic metamorphosis, from a 5-7 disappointment in 2022 to a College Football Playoff participant.

Alas, that would require more than doubling last season’s victory total. No team has made the CFP field with more than one loss.

Yet, it’s been done. Just last year, TCU reached the CFP, despite finishing 5-7 in 2021. Michigan reached the 2021 playoffs, despite finishing 2-4 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Of course, as a member of the powerful Southeastern Conference, Texas A&M faces greater obstacles than TCU of the Big 12 or even Michigan of the Big Ten.

For example, three Big 12 teams — Oklahoma in 2018 and 2019 and TCU last year — have appeared in the playoffs within the last five years.

Those Big 12 teams are 0-3 against SEC opponents Alabama (’18), LSU (’19) and Georgia (’22). They were outscored 173-69.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

11 SEC teams have appeared in the first nine College Football Playoffs.

Big Ten teams haven’t fared any better in that span. Ohio State lost to Alabama, 52-24, in 2020. Michigan fell to Georgia, 34-11, in 2021.

Still, the requirement for playoff consideration is obvious — one loss or less. Even Alabama was omitted from the playoffs last year even though its two losses were both on the road by a combined four points.

The question then is, what will it take for Texas A&M to meet the playoff criteria?

There are no absolute answers. However, there are guidelines that are based on the performance of the 20 playoff teams over the last five years.

The following is a look at those playoff teams’ average performance in eight statistical categories, how A&M rated in those categories last year and the Aggies’ prospects of reaching those averages in 2023.

1. Total Offense
• Playoff teams average: 496.49 yards
• Texas A&M in 2022: 360.8 (93rd in the nation)

Outlook: Can the influence of offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino produce another 135 yards per game? The Aggies exceeded 400 total yards in just four games last season, but two were with then-true freshman Conner Weigman starting at quarterback.

The loss of running back Devon Achane is worrisome, but A&M’s receiving corps of Ainias Smith, Evan Stewart, Moose Muhammad and Noah Thomas provide big-play potential. The Aggies desperately need that big-play potential. They only managed 19 plays of 30 yards or more last season.

Yet, Petrino has a history of fielding explosive offenses. He’s reportedly using more pre-snap motion and deception than A&M has previously shown. An increased offensive output should be expected, but 130 yards worth might be too ambitious.

Jamie Maury, TexAgs

Evan Stewart was A&M’s leading receiver last year, amassing 649 yards and two TDs.

Of course, the 496-yard mark is just an average. Eleven playoff teams averaged more than 500 yards, but Cincinnati reached the 2021 playoffs averaging just 413.9 yards.

Projected level of improvement: Significant

2. Scoring Offense
• Playoff teams average: 41.64
• Texas A&M in 2022: 22.8 (101st in the nation)

Outlook: As has been well-chronicled, A&M would’ve posted 10 wins with one more touchdown in every game, but the Aggies must increase their scoring average by three touchdowns — 18 points — to reach the playoff norm.

A&M exceeded 30 points only twice last season — in the first game and the last. Both games were won. Since 2008, Petrino’s offenses at Power 5 Arkansas and Louisville averaged more than 31 points in six of nine seasons.

A spike in scoring can also be expected. An 18-point increase also seems overly ambitious.

But Notre Dame reached the playoffs in 2018 with a 31.4 scoring average and again in 2020 with a 33.4 average. Petrino’s track record suggests it’s doable for the Aggies.

Projected level of improvement: Significant

3. Third-Down Conversion Percentage
• Playoff teams average: 47.92
• Texas A&M in 2022: 35.95 (99th in the nation)

Outlook: Cincinnati converted 39.39 percent of its third-down opportunities in 2021. That’s the lowest percentage by a playoff team. Eighteen playoff teams converted more than 40 percent.

Obviously, A&M needs to make dramatic progress. A reason to think the Aggies might is that two of their best efforts on third downs against FBS opponents were in games in which Weigman started (35.71 vs. Ole Miss and 66.67 vs LSU).

Jamie Maury, TexAgs

Conner Weigman and Max  Johnson combined for 155 rushing yards last season.

Weigman and Max Johnson both have shown a willingness to scramble on third downs. For example, Weigman scrambled to pick up first downs on third-and-12 and third-and-7 situations in a win over LSU. Johnson scrambled for 33 yards on a third-and-7 in a win against Arkansas.

Quarterbacks with the ability and willingness to scramble can make plays off-schedule. That’s particularly vital on third down.

Projected level of improvement: Significant

4. Total Defense
• Playoff team average: 330.94
• Texas A&M in 2022: 365.0 (52nd in the nation)

Outlook: Five playoff teams allowed an average of more than 350 total yards. 2020 National Champion Alabama allowed 352.2.

From a yardage standpoint, the Aggies’ defense doesn’t appear that far away from playoff caliber.

However, A&M must tighten up against the run. Last season, A&M was ranked an abysmal 123rd in the nation in rushing defense.

Health and experience should be key factors in A&M making significant improvement. Defensive tackle McKinnley Jackson missed four games and two in 2021. He finished the last half of the 2022 season strong, though.

Defensive linemen Walter Nolen, Shemar Stewart and LT Overton started games as true freshmen and figure to be better with a year of growth and experience.

Linebacker play is the key. More consistency is needed from Edgerrin Cooper and Chris Russell. Expect sophomore Martrell Harris to be more involved. Maybe Jackson State transfer Jurriente “JD” Davis will have a major impact.

The pass defense will remain strong. The secondary could be as good, if not better, than a year ago.

Projected level of improvement: Slight

5. Scoring Defense
• Playoff team average: 19.47
• Texas A&M in 2022: 21.2 (25th in the nation)

Jamie Maury, TexAgs

D.J. Durkin will take over the role of linebacker’s coach in 2023 in addition to his duties as defensive coordinator.

Outlook: The Aggies are close here, too. Their average drops to 19.4 when three touchdowns allowed by special teams and the offense are subtracted.

More consistency is needed, but A&M was playoff-caliber in points allowed. Six playoff teams — LSU in 2019, Ohio State in 2020 and 2022, Oklahoma in 2018 and 2019 and TCU in 2022 — allowed at least 21 points per game.

Projected level of improvement: Minimal

6. Opponent’s Third-Down Conversion Percentage
• Playoff team average: 33.66
• Texas A&M in 2022: 35.63 (44th in the nation)

Outlook: A&M’s defensive success on third down in 2022 was playoff caliber. Four playoff teams had lesser showings on third down, including Ohio State (37.17 in 2020), Notre Dame (38.86 in 2018), Alabama (41.5 in 2020) and Oklahoma (46.38 in 2018).

But a dozen playoff teams held opponents to at least a 33.97 conversion rate. The Aggies need to be better. There’s a good chance they will.

As previously mentioned, better health and more experience may result in a better performance from the defensive line. In turn, that may result in opponents facing longer yardage on third down against what should be a strong A&M secondary.

Projected level of improvement: Slight

7. Turnover Margin

• Playoff team average: +6.4
• Texas A&M in 2022: -1 (tied for 76th in the nation)

Outlook: Dramatic improvement is needed on both ends of the turnover spectrum. Last year, A&M forced 16 turnovers while committing 17.

Only two teams with a negative turnover ratio made the playoffs in the last five years. Both were Oklahoma (-2 in ’18, -8 in ‘19).

Jamie Maury, TexAgs

Safety Demani Richardson has grabbed four interceptions in his career.

A&M can look to the quarterback position to glean optimism for turnover reduction. Neither Weigman nor Johnson threw any of the six interceptions the Aggies lost in 2022.

On the other hand, the Aggie defense needs to grab more interceptions. Last season, A&M managed just four, which were returned for a paltry 13 yards.

The fewest interceptions by a playoff team were six by Oklahoma in 2018. Fifteen of the past 20 playoff teams had at least 11 interceptions.

Projected level of improvement: Slight

8. Sacks
• Playoff teams average: 39.2
• Texas A&M in 2022: 19 (111th in the nation)

Outlook: A strong pass rush is a typical characteristic of playoff teams. An increase in sacks likely leads to an increase in turnovers forced. Hurried quarterbacks are inclined to fumble or make bad passes that are intercepted.

Eighteen of the 20 playoff teams posted at least 20 sacks. Three teams have had more than 50, including Alabama (57 in ‘21), Ohio State (54 in ‘19) and Clemson (54 in ‘18).

The lowest total for a playoff team was 21 by Ohio State in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Ohio State played just eight games that year.

A&M must add iron to its anemic pass rush. The health of defensive end Fadil Diggs figures to provide a boost. He led A&M with three sacks but missed the last four games with an injury.

Also, the growth of Overton, Nolen, Shemar Stewart and linebacker Harris, who posted two sacks as a freshman, are likely to make the rush better.

Further, redshirt freshman Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy — who missed all of last season to injury — could provide a boost as well.

Potential must become production.

Projected level of improvement: Solid

Showing Olin’s Work

For each of the eight stats listed above, we’ve compiled the numbers of each of the four playoff participants from the last five seasons.

* - Denotes that sack totals are likely skewed due to the COVID-shortened 2020 season.