Around CFB: Stroke of luck needed for Alabama to get back to the playoff
There seems to be a general consensus that for the first time in the College Football Playoff’s six-year history, Alabama won’t be among the four-team field.
Although the Tide is 10-1 and was ranked fifth in the rankings a week ago, the thought is too many things are working against coach Nick Saban’s team.
The strength of schedule isn’t strong enough. There are too many potential one-loss “Power 5” teams that could be conference champions. Alabama is without star quarterback Tau Tagovailoa, which may influence the CFP committee to dismiss the Tide.
Yet, Alabama has been in a tough spot before and ended up as national champion.
Take the 2011 season, for example.
Alabama appeared to be out of the national championship discussion after falling 9-6 to LSU on Nov. 5. LSU finished the regular season unbeaten and trounced Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game.
The Tigers topped the Bowl Championship Series standings — the system of computers and polls that was then used to determine participants in the national championship game.
Alabama seemed destined to finish third in the standings behind Oklahoma State, which was 10-0 going into a mid-November clash with 5-4 Iowa State.
But with the score tied 24-24 late in the fourth quarter, usually-reliable kicker Quinn Sharp missed a 37-yard field goal attempt that could’ve clinched a Cowboys victory.
Oklahoma State fell 37-31 in double overtime. That loss created an opportunity for Alabama to face LSU again for the national title.
Alabama won the rematch, 21-0.
The next season the Tide was again aided by another stroke of luck
When Johnny Manziel led Texas A&M to a 29-24 upset in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 10, the Crimson Tide again appeared out of the national title hunt.
Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon all went into the next to last game of the season with 10-0 records. All those teams had national championship aspirations that seemed well within reach.
Except … Kansas State was upset by Baylor 42-24, and Oregon fell 17-14 to Stanford in overtime.
Just like that, Alabama was back in the championship picture. Then, the Crimson Tide defeated Georgia, 32-28, in the SEC championship game.
That put Alabama in the national title game against Notre Dame. Alabama blew out the Irish, 42-12.
Once again, Alabama needs help to backdoor its way into the national championship picture.
The argument that Tagovailoa's injury eliminates Alabama isn't strong. Alabama could argue that Ohio State won a national title with third-string quarterback Cardale Jones at the helm. Why assume Alabama can't win with Mac Jones at quarterback?
As far as strength of schedule, it's not like Pac-12 and Big 12 teams have faced monstrous competition. Baylor's strongest non-conference opponent was Texas-San Antonio. Oklahoma's was Houston. Utah's was BYU.
Alabama has to hope some other one-loss teams lose in the next two weeks. Georgia (10-1) still has playoff hopes. So do Utah (10-1), Oklahoma (10-1), Baylor (10-1) and Minnesota (10-1).
First, Alabama has to defeat Auburn to finish the season 11-1. Then, the Tide must hope for all the dominoes to fall in their favor.
The most likely scenarios would include:
Georgia falling to LSU in the SEC championship game. That would seem to eliminate Georgia.
Utah losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game and Minnesota either losing to Wisconsin this week or falling to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
That would leave Oklahoma and Baylor, which will meet for the Big 12 championship game.
If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State in the Bedlam rivalry and then defeat Baylor in the Big 12 title game, both OU and Baylor would have two losses and would probably be eliminated.
Maybe Alabama could get the nod over a one-loss Baylor or a one-loss OU, but the Tide cannot count on that.
A lot of moving parts would seem to be required for Alabama to clinch a spot in the four-team playoff. But none of those scenarios are outrageous.
And for some reason, Alabama often is the recipient for good fortune.
Heisman Watch (If my ballot was due today)
1. Joe Burrow, LSU, QB: The nation’s most accurate passer with a completion percentage of 78.9, Burrow had a typically strong showing in a 56-20 victory over Arkansas. He completed 23 of 28 attempts (82.1 percent) while passing for 327yards and 3 TDs. Overall this season, Burrow has passed for 4,014 yards and 41 touchdowns with just six interceptions.
2. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, QB: Hurts accounted for all four touchdowns in the Sooners’ 28-24 victory over TCU. He passed for two and rushed for two while accumulating 318 yards of total offense. Hurts is second in the nation in total offense with 4,340 yards. He’s passed for more than 3,000 yards (3,184) and rushed for more than 1,000 (1,156). Hurts joins Heisman winners Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M and Lamar Jackson of Louisville as players to have passed for 3,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 in the same season. He's also thrown 30 touchdown passes and rushed for 17 TDs.
3. Chase Young, Ohio State, DE: Despite missing two games, Young leads the nation with 16.5 sacks. He had 3 in last week’s 28-17 victory over Penn State. The nation’s most dominant defensive player, Young also is third in the nation with 19.5 tackles for loss and has 38 total tackles. He’s also second in the nation with six forced fumbles, has broken up a pass and blocked a kick.
4. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin, RB: By rushing for 222 yards in a 45-24 victory over Purdue, Taylor posted his third consecutive 200-yard performance. He is second in the nation with 1,685 rushing yards and has scored 18 touchdowns. He’s also caught 20 passes for 162 yards and 4 TDs.
5. Justin Fields, Ohio State, QB: His statistics aren’t gaudy, but his impact on the unbeaten Buckeyes has been. Fields has passed for 2,352 yards and 33 touchdowns with just one interception. In last week’s 28-17 victory over Penn State, has completed 16 of 22 attempts for 188 yards and 2 TDs.
Predicted playoff participants
1. LSU: The unbeaten Tigers have been held to fewer than 36 points just once all season.
2. Ohio State: The Buckeyes lead the nation in total defense and are sixth in total offense.
3. Clemson: The streak of blowouts is now six straight victories by at least 29 points.
4. Oklahoma: Closing wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor in the Big 12 championship game figures to be enough to get the Sooners in. But they’ll be pulling for Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game just in case.
This week’s best games
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Michigan: The Buckeyes have won seven straight over “that school up north.” The Wolverines hope to end that streak and maybe throw a wrench into Ohio State’s national title hopes.
No. 5 Alabama at No. 15 Auburn: With just one loss, Alabama still has a shot at the College Football Playoff. Auburn would relish knocking the Tide out of consideration.
No. 12 Wisconsin at No. 10 Minnesota: The winner represents the West Division in the Big Ten championship game and probably is subjected to a beatdown by Ohio State.
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 21 Oklahoma State: It would be Bedlam if the Sooners suffered a second loss and likely elimination from the playoff picture.
Texas A&M at No. 1 LSU: A playoff appearance is secondary for LSU, which aims to avenge last year’s 74-72 loss to the Aggies.
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