Strength of Schedule: Fallacies in Pac-12's arguments

“So the king gave the order, and they brought Daniel and threw him into the lions’ den.”

You know the story. Three jealous men plotted to have Daniel thrown into the lions’ den where they assumed he’d be ripped apart and no longer a threat.

In the Bible those men were described as administrators of King Darius. Today, they would be known as Pac-12 football coaches.

Pac-12 coaches want to force SEC teams to play a nine-game conference schedule. No doubt, they’re hoping SEC teams would devour each other, compromise the league’s chances of getting teams into the new college football playoff field and thus no longer be as great a threat.

Perhaps you heard that earlier this month Stanford’s David Shaw and several other Pac-12 football coaches were openly critical of the Southeastern Conference’s decision to play eight conference games. Their feeling is that since major college football is adopting a four-team playoff, each league should be required to play the same number of conference games.

That, they say, would foster more equality in the selection process to determine the playoff field.

“I’ve been saying this for three years now: I think if we’re going to go into a playoff and feed into one playoff system, we all need to play by the same rules,” Shaw said. “Play your conference. Don’t back down from playing your own conference. It’s one thing to back down from playing somebody else. But don’t back down from playing your own conference.”

Oregon’s Mark Helfrich, Washington State’s Mike Leach and UCLA’s Jim Mora made similar comments. Shaw even went so far as to slam SEC teams for playing “cupcake” non-conference schedules.

That brings to mind another Biblical reference — something about removing the plank in your own eye.

SEC teams already annually schedule Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Louisville. This year SEC teams will also play non-conference games against West Virginia, UCF, Indiana, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech. Beginning next year every SEC team will play at least one opponent from a major conference. This year Georgia plays two — Clemson and Georgia Tech of the ACC.

The suggestion that mandating all college football leagues play the same number of conference games will create equity assumes that all conferences are equal.

That simply isn’t the case.

Just last season the SEC had four teams finish among the top 10 in the national rankings. Shaw’s Pac-12 had one — No. 9 Oregon. The previous season there were five SEC teams in the final top 10. The Pac-12 had two.

Some might then argue the extra non-conference game helps SEC teams get into the top 10. Yet, the argument that SEC teams typically face stronger competition within its conference has merit, too.

Take Texas A&M, for instance. Last year the Aggies faced five conference opponents that were ranked among the nation’s top 25 in the final polls.

The Aggies were just 1-4 in those games. Yet, in the Chick-fil-A Bowl they defeated No. 23 Duke, an ACC member which had posted 10 wins.

Pac-12 advocates might be tempted to dismiss Duke’s success and question the strength of the ACC. However, it should be noted that in the past four years the SEC is 6-2 against the Pac-12. Those two Pac-12 victories were Oregon over struggling Tennessee in 2010 and 2013.

Further, Pac-12 coaches — and coaches in other major conferences — have ripped SEC teams for scheduling FCS opponents. Yet, eight Pac-12 teams will play FCS opponents this season.

Still, Shaw and Co. seem to believe their teams are in the lions because they play nine conference games. But as was the case with Daniel, some of those lions aren’t ferocious.

Pac-12 members Cal and Colorado are currently among the nation’s weakest programs in major conferences. In fact, Cal’s only victory was a 37-30 squeaker over FCS Portland State.
Colorado managed four wins — two over FCS members Central Arkansas and Charleston Southern. The Buffaloes also beat Colorado State.

Their fourth victory was over — you guessed it — Cal.

Still, some Pac-12 coaches seem to maintain they face a greater challenge.

“I think it (requiring nine conference games) would make it more fair,” Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez said. “But I’m not worried about that. I’m just trying to get a first down right now.”

Rodriguez was wise not to pile on. His team’s non-conference schedule includes UNLV, Texas-San Antonio and Nevada. The Wildcats also play Colorado AND Cal.

And since Shaw has been the most vocal critic, take a look at Stanford’s 2014 schedule and compare it to Auburn’s. That’s a valid comparison because both are defending conference champions.

Stanford’s three non-conference opponents are UC-Davis, Army and Notre Dame; Auburn’s four are Samford, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State and Kansas State. UC-Davis and Samford are both FCS teams, so they cancel each other out. Army (3-9 last season) and Louisiana Tech (4-8) are similar. So too are Notre Dame (9-4 in 2013) and Kansas State (8-5).

That leaves Auburn with San Jose State, which was 6-6 last year. So compare San Jose State to the worst Pac-12 team that Stanford faces — Cal. Most would agree San Jose State’s football program is now at least equal to Cal, if not superior.

Now, look at the remaining games.

Stanford faces USC, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, Oregon State, Oregon, Utah and UCLA. Those teams were a combined 68-35. Auburn faces Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. They were a combined 67-36.

Not much difference.

Sure, some SEC teams need to upgrade their non-conference opponents. SEC Commissioner Mike Slive has prodded his teams to do so and Texas A&M — one of the main transgressors — has responded by scheduling future non-conference games against Arizona State, UCLA and Oregon.

Interestingly, those are all Pac-12 teams.

Actually, the feeling here is SEC teams should play nine conference games. That would allow more equitable scheduling for the divisional races, enhance teams’ overall strength of schedules and provide better games for fans that are often required to make generous donations just to be eligible to purchase expensive season tickets.

Those are good reasons for the SEC to consider a nine-game conference schedule.

The whining of Pac-12 coaches is not.