How much less likely are you to *get* covid after vaccination?

9,331 Views | 103 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Zobel
Good Poster
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AG
And how can we have accurate info on this if vaccinated individuals with no/mild symptoms never get tested because they don't think they need to?
Aston94
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AG
Isn't that the point of the vaccine, to lessen symptoms and make it where you don't have to go to the hospital?

95% of serious cases are unvaccinated. That's all that really matters.
cone
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AG
it's absolutely ridiculous that we don't have real time data about hospitalization based on vaccination status

I see 99% figures repeated but haven't seen a table or chart
Nasreddin
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These are facts they don't want you to know.
Good Poster
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AG
My question isn't about the seriousness of symptoms, it is strictly about "does the vaccine reduce your likelihood of contracting the virus"
cone
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AG
that's much harder to track
texan12
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Aston94 said:

Isn't that the point of the vaccine, to lessen symptoms and make it where you don't have to go to the hospital?

95% of serious cases are unvaccinated. That's all that really matters.


Were people with minor cases ever hospitalized? What percentage of all current cases with minor symptomatic or asymptomatic unvaccinated are at home?
GAC06
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AG
Aston94 said:

Isn't that the point of the vaccine, to lessen symptoms and make it where you don't have to go to the hospital?

95% of serious cases are unvaccinated. That's all that really matters.


It's certainly good news the vaccines are effective at preventing severe illness but the infection rate matters. If reducing symptoms is the point, it hurts the case for vaccine mandates for healthy people since they already are very unlikely to have severe symptoms. The vaccines were largely sold as a means to end the pandemic, not for individuals to prevent severe symptoms.
Duncan Idaho
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cone said:

it's absolutely ridiculous that we don't have real time data about hospitalization based on vaccination status

I see 99% figures repeated but haven't seen a table or chart

It was either Shreveport or Monroe that I drove through this weekend that had an electronic billboard with the current hospitalization numbers by vax status. I can't remember the exact number but it was overwhelming unvaxed but not 95%
PJYoung
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A KidDoc quote that applies in this thread:

Quote:

The virus changed (Delta variant)- the data changed. This was not just a random narrative shift. It is how science is supposed to work.
KidDoc
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cone said:

it's absolutely ridiculous that we don't have real time data about hospitalization based on vaccination status

I see 99% figures repeated but haven't seen a table or chart
Here ya go Cone, not every state reports it though:

COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases: Data from the States | KFF
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
cone
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i appreciate the attempt from KFF

but this is the CDC's remit
texan12
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/iceland-deals-with-growing-delta-outbreak-as-high-vaccination-rates-stop-deaths/news-story/b970a814615715e573d67b3a1c1525f0

These articles are over one year apart. The first suggests as of APR20 that over half the cases are asymptomatic while fast forwarding to the aug21 article where ~85% of the total population is vaccinated. Perhaps its safe to say that a large % of people have natural immunity along with a vaccine.

"Now, the sparsely populated island has more than 1590 active cases. About 20 are in hospital, with a quarter of those in intensive care. While that doesn't sound like many, in such a small country even that number puts a strain on its healthcare resources."

A month prior to the above quote, Iceland only had two active cases. So, does the vaccine or natural immunity from a non-delta variant even matter? It's like we're starting over again.

Edit to add: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iceland/?fbclid=IwAR2iHEvH87ltPKTh27wRT7hbmD6BUzofvUu25Cxm0JobfAopUpJQb1Xs9aE

8900 total cases and 30 deaths.

Gordo14
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8x less likely to get infected. 25x less likely for hospitalization and death. The vaccines are truly incredible with how robust and effective they are.
texan12
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Gordo14 said:



8x less likely to get infected. 25x less likely for hospitalization and death. The vaccines are truly incredible with how robust and effective they are.


It may be premature to claim them robust as Iceland has had an increase in cases and hospitalization.
PJYoung
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texan12 said:

Gordo14 said:



8x less likely to get infected. 25x less likely for hospitalization and death. The vaccines are truly incredible with how robust and effective they are.


It may be premature to claim them robust as Iceland has had an increase in cases and hospitalization.

I think it's probably a constantly changing % as new variants roll out.
JP_Losman
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AG
the current vaccines are fighting the last war
Gordo14
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texan12 said:

Gordo14 said:



8x less likely to get infected. 25x less likely for hospitalization and death. The vaccines are truly incredible with how robust and effective they are.


It may be premature to claim them robust as Iceland has had an increase in cases and hospitalization.


That's not how you should evaluate the trends. It's the the vaccinated vs unvaccinated trend relative to each other that marks success. If 100% of the population was vaccinated and nobody in the hospital, then there is only one direction that hospitalizations could go - up.

At the end of the day we have plenty of data points from Israel, to the UK to the US to KNOW that the vaccine is very effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. It is also very effective (less so) at preventing infection.
txaggie79
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Iceland article direct quote:

"Reykjavk hospital data reveals infections remain proportionately far higher among the unvaccinated. But vaccination only offers moderate resistance to contracting the disease.

The big difference, however, is in the severity of the symptoms.
Previous outbreaks of non-Delta variants among much lower vaccination rates claimed 29 Icelandic lives. The latest outbreak despite its size has so far claimed none."


texan12
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Perhaps, but 100% is not a reasonable or attainable metric. ~85% vaccinated and an educated guess that many more were asymptomatic is pretty damn good.

Either way we're splitting hairs considering .0026% of Iceland's total population makes up known covid cases.
texan12
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29 of 8900 total cases with a population of ~340k. Like I said, we're just splitting hairs now.
Nasreddin
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My qualms are not against a vaccine or a virus. You cite whatever you want but you'll never get past the fact that this vaccine was sold first to be effective, then they moved to "it's still effective because you won't get too sick or die", we were also told that the vaccinated would not have to wear masks and were told that with a vaccine, you can enjoy access to things that unvaccinated cannot. Those last two vanished like a fart in the wind. No amount of studies are going to change that. Now, whether it was intentional or just a failed PR scam remains to be seen, but the facts are apparent.
KidDoc
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Robin Hood Was A Thief said:

My qualms are not against a vaccine or a virus. You cite whatever you want but you'll never get past the fact that this vaccine was sold first to be effective, then they moved to "it's still effective because you won't get too sick or die", we were also told that the vaccinated would not have to wear masks and were told that with a vaccine, you can enjoy access to things that unvaccinated cannot. Those last two vanished like a fart in the wind. No amount of studies are going to change that. Now, whether it was intentional or just a failed PR scam remains to be seen, but the facts are apparent.
You are still willingly ignoring the fact that the virus changed. It is not a grand conspiracy it is a mutation, which is not surprising with Coronavirus. The remove the mask guidelines for vaccinated was based on the past strains of COVID for which the vaccines are amazingly effective. It is the mutation of the virus that caused the change in guidelines based on real time data, particularly from areas with very high vaccine coverage but very high spread of the delta variant specifically England and Israel.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
texan12
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What percentage of the public in 2019 knew about how often a coronavirus mutates? We were only used to flu seasons before this.
Zobel
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AG

Quote:

You cite whatever you want but you'll never get past the fact that this vaccine was sold first to be effective

How about the original Pfizer phase 3 study from December 2020?
Quote:

A two-dose regimen of BNT162b2 conferred 95% protection against Covid-19....The first primary end point was the efficacy of BNT162b2 against confirmed Covid-19 ... defined according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) criteria as the presence of at least one of the following symptoms: fever, new or increased cough, new or increased shortness of breath, chills, new or increased muscle pain, new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, diarrhea, or vomiting, combined with a respiratory specimen obtained during the symptomatic period or within 4 days before or after it that was positive for SARS-CoV-2...
And the original Moderna phase 3 study from February 2021

Quote:

The mRNA-1273 vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy at preventing Covid-19 illness...The primary end point was the efficacy of the mRNA-1273 vaccine in preventing a first occurrence of symptomatic Covid-19 ...defined as occurring in participants who had at least two of the following symptoms: fever (temperature 38C), chills, myalgia, headache, sore throat, or new olfactory or taste disorder, or as occurring in those who had at least one respiratory sign or symptom (including cough, shortness of breath, or clinical or radiographic evidence of pneumonia) and at least one nasopharyngeal swab, nasal swab, or saliva sample...that was positive for SARS-CoV-2...
You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. What you're saying here is provably false.
KidDoc
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AG
I would be willing to bet that 99% of the non medical public never knew there was such a thing as coronavirus before 2020, much less that they tend to mutate (like pretty much all RNA virus).

Just like they don't know about Coxsackie virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, etc-- it isn't their job so you shouldn't expect the general public to know anything about it.

Just like I don't know how to fix my car, I take it to people with training and knowledge for that. But somehow many people have become infectious disease experts via Google and social media in 2020-21.

Robin Hood here just keeps insisting the CDC is putting out a coordinated effort to misinform and "move the goal posts". I am no CDC fan and they have been pretty bad especially in 2020 but this decision was based on hard data.



No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
texan12
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I'm definitely one of those 99%. I also understand Robin Hood's sentiment that we were misled somewhat. You can't act like the news is pure and holy. Just like your auto mechanic probably has duped you a few times all the while you were glad they checked your blinker fluid.
txaggie79
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AG
Dude, you must have trust issues. There are good sources of information. And there are honest auto mechanics!
cone
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Quote:

The remove the mask guidelines for vaccinated was based on the past strains of COVID for which the vaccines are amazingly effective.
but this assumes a resumption of masking like we did last winter is a legit mitigation measure
mccjames
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I also think the metric that needs to be pushed at this point is how many have recovered from COVID AND vaccinated.

We need how many have had shot without COVID and how many revovered from COVID that is the % of population that needs to be out!
KidDoc
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Yes excellent point. I have very very little faith that masking makes much difference outside of N95 fitted masks.

edit: and since we have no real data on mask efficacy, it is a faith based guideline/mandate.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Nasreddin
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Again, this may be the case, but like "2 weeks to flatten the curve" is what we were told. I'm fine with acknowledging that these were in the studies, but it was NOT a the narrative given to the American People. Sorry, but that's the truth.
Nasreddin
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I understand. I'd add:

You believe that I think there is some manner of conspiracy. A conspiracy presupposes some level of competence. I believe we are dealing with a lot of throwing **** at the wall to see what sticks. I don't engage in conspiracy theories.
bay fan
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S
Seemingly you also don't engage in proven facts, just keep repeating your beliefs which are not demonstrably correct.
AggieHusker
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