Somthing is not Adding up? 2017 to 2020 US Death Rates

2,783 Views | 10 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Amarillo Slim
fullback44
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So the CDC has "UPDATED" their US death rates... something isnt adding up?

Anyone have any insight as to why these 2020 numbers dont add up? CDC lying again for 2020?

Just doesnt make any sense

TOTAL U.S. DEATHS [ALL CAUSES]:
2017 Total Deaths US: 2,813,503 (234,000/month)
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm][/url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm
2018 Total Deaths US: 2,839,205 (237,000/month)
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm][/url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
2019 Total Deaths US: 2,855,000 (238,000/month)
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm][/url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
2020 Total Deaths US (jan - week 9/26): 2,130,000 (236,000/month)
[url=https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6][/url]https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6
2,130,000 + (236,000/month x 3) [Oct, Nov, Dec] = 2,838,000 [assumption based on monthly avg]

Total United States Death Rates per year 2017-2020 extracted from CDC records

2020: 2,838,000 [3-month assumption insert]
2019: 2,855,000
2018: 2,839,000
2017: 2,814,000

maybe its time the TRUTH comes out, we had the same or similar disease in 2008 I believe, hardly ever mentioned to the public or in the news
fullback44
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
FoxNews just added this in this week also



look like alot of elders that were gonna die ended up dying and it was either attributed to Covid or maybe Covid caused them to expire early?
PerpetualLurker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm sorry but I am having trouble following. What is the question?
fullback44
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
No real question .. just brought some facts over from the CDC
ORAggieFan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
There's a reason Sweden has had below average deaths for weeks. Covid accelerated deaths by 3-6 months. Problem is, now deaths due to lockdowns are rising and is what will contribute to excessive deaths in the US.
AggieAuditor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I think this is the best real world example of a circular reference.
jebeka
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Covid is serious if you are in a nursing home. It's serious to a very small group outside of a nursing home. It's a cold to everyone else. What a screwed up year. If you say it's not a risk you are labeled a heartless *******. If you hide in a bunker you are doing your part to save the world.
AustinAg2K
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It's been mentioned many places, and many times. The CDC deaths lag by something like 30 or 60 days. If you look at your data you will see the number of deaths for September 2020 and the first week of October 2020 are a fraction of the other months. If you are looking to calculate excess deaths, you need to not include the last month or so. Or just go to the CDC webpage they have for excess deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Belton Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It seems to me that we're probably not going to get a good idea of excess deaths and how COVID has affected our death rate for a few years. It will be interesting to look back in 3 to 5 years and see where we stand.

COVID is still very much an ongoing study and will be for some time.
hph6203
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Belton Ag said:

It seems to me that we're probably not going to get a good idea of excess deaths and how COVID has affected our death rate for a few years. It will be interesting to look back in 3 to 5 years and see where we stand.

COVID is still very much an ongoing study and will be for some time.
The data in the OP is wrong. They used 2019 death rates through the end of September for the 2020 death amounts, which is why there's hardly any discrepancy in the total deaths between 2019 and 2020. The drop from 2019 to 2020 in their flawed data is because there are more deaths in the winter/fall months than Summer/Spring so overall deaths are lower than they actually were in 2019.


Here's the real info quoted from my reply on the thread on the politics forum:

Quote:


The difference in deaths YTD as of the end of August was 250,350. Since getting a handle of the virus outbreak the US has been running a weekly death rate that is comparable to an above average flu season. That is not an unsubstantial difference for the summer months. If reported COVID deaths is comparable to increase in deaths then Texas is probably running about 15-20% above the norm right now and peaked at 68% above the norm by week. By the end of August there had been 16.8% more deaths in Texas and 13.04% more deaths YTD for the entire United States. There were 18% more deaths between the first week of March and the last week of August.

There was a 6% jump in deaths between 2014 and 2015, flat from 2015 to 2016, 3% jump 2016 to 2017, 1.7% increase 2017 to 2018, flat 2018 to 2019, and a 13.04% jump from 2019 to 2020 (By the end of August for all). Prior to the outbreak the United States was running 1.7% increase from 2019 to 2020 (By the time the first death from COVID was listed in Washington).

In short if you believe that this virus isn't killing people, you're lying to yourself. It doesn't have to not kill people in order for it to not be a good idea to completely shut down our economy. Also of note is that 26.3% of the excess deaths year over year are not attributed to COVID in the data, which may mean that lockdowns are actually causing some deaths, though not as much as COVID itself.

As an example, as of the end of August, Georgia who has been aggressive about re-opening had an increase in deaths YTD of 13.87%, California who has been pretty aggressive about keeping things closed had an increase in deaths YTD of 11.7%. We know that black and Hispanic individuals are more susceptible to this virus and given that 35% of California is black or Hispanic and 39% of Georgia is black or Hispanic it's not outrageous to assume that the discrepancy could be attributed to demographics. Florida likewise is at 14.28% increase in deaths YTD.

Based upon data from this link:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr

And this link:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

Whether a state is hit hard seems to be more a function of population density and demographics rather than whether or not they shut down. Of course I admit I'm biased.

New York City got absolutely hammered at 73% more deaths YTD, followed by New Jersey at 35.21%, District of Columbia at 29.2%, Arizona at 23.8%, New York State at 20.18%, and Massachusetts at 19.6%.

Best performers would be West Virginia (-2.6, though it seems there reporting sucks, regardless they have never been substantially outside what would be a normal increase year to year), Hawaii (-1.03%), Alaska (.17%), North Dakota (.63%), Montana (.98%), South Dakota (1.49%), Maine (1.9%) and Oklahoma (2.87%).


Here are screenshots of the data for 2019/2020.

United States through end of August


States through end of August:

Amarillo Slim
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I did the same exercise and extrapolated numbers using leading cause of deaths over last 5 years. If you apply same average for each cause of death times total deaths either Covid caused deaths are greatly exaggerated or law of averages will now have to be called Theory of averages. The only are one may except significant year over year drop would be accidental deaths since fewer people driving for 6 months.

Covid real, extra measures needed, actual deaths due to covid exaggerated.
"Real happiness comes not from getting what we desire; but celebrating what we have."
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.