Texas Medical Center Graphs

31 Views | 170 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by 94chem
cc_ag92
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AG
I was responding to the claim that it "couldn't be caused" by schools, not advocating for school openings or closures. I'm not sure why you decided to make a point that had nothing to do with what I was saying.
We all know how you feel about it.
DadHammer
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AG
What was your point?
cc_ag92
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I was attempting to discuss the possibility that high school kids can be infected, symptomatic, and contagious, which means that schools opening can impact the rate of illness amongst people who seek hospital care. That possibility should be examined as we seek to open schools and businesses across Texas. Let me spell this out for you. I'm not implying that we should not open schools or businesses. I am an advocate for researching why things happen, not dismissing a possible reason because it doesn't fit a narrative.
I know your point is that it doesn't matter why. Open it all up.
AggieBiker
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AG
cc_ag92 said:

I was attempting to discuss the possibility that high school kids can be infected, symptomatic, and contagious, which means that schools opening can impact the rate of illness amongst people who seek hospital care. That possibility should be examined as we seek to open schools and businesses across Texas. Let me spell this out for you. I'm not implying that we should not open schools or businesses. I am an advocate for researching why things happen, not dismissing a possible reason because it doesn't fit a narrative.
I know your point is that it doesn't matter why. Open it all up.
If you look again at what I said I was not "dismissing a possible reason because it doesn't fit a narrative" as you say here. I said, "Unless you are getting educators I would not expect it to be school reopening since kids are rarely affected and more rarely affected enough to hospitalize." I am correct in saying kids are more likely to be asymptomatic than adults. And whether they are asymptomatic or symptomatic, they are rarely affected enough to be hospitalized. In this case, I was commenting to a doctor that works in a hospital about the cases he is seeing. Therefore, I was supposing that the possibility a school link was the cause of the increase would not be due him seeing school aged children in the hospital but would make sense if he was seeing educators that were infected due to working in schools.

I never dismissed wholeheartedly school reopening as an influence in the increase of presentations but rather unless the people he was seeing were educators, it would less likely that school settings were causing the increase and more likely that Labor Day activities caused the increase.

Both of my Aggie daughters are teachers with in-class student populations so I am well aware and observant of what CV is doing in the schools. And according to the reports here in Texas yesterday 0.2% of in-person attending students and educators have been found to be CV positive since schools reopened. Therefore, it is unlikely the increase he has observed is due to school reopening if you allow me to also suppose that 90-99% of that 0.2% probably did not have to go to the hospital which is what we know about all cases of this for the total population of CV positive patients.

I hope I have been clear in my statement.
[url=https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3128461/4][/url][url=https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3128461/4][/url]

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RandyAg98
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AG
This thing's all but over in Houston.

cc_ag92
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I apologize if it sounded like my most recent post was referring to you as dismissing the possibility. I honestly was trying to have a conversation with you.

My original reply to you was: "At what age do you think "kids" become old enough to be affected? I'm not talking about hospitalizations, just sick with symptoms, since you brought that up.
Or, bear with me... could some of the adults in the schools be affected and hospitalized? I know it's popular here to act like that's impossible, but in one of the districts near me, high school kids are getting diagnosed fairly often, with symptoms. It seems like they could transmit to their teachers (who are also getting diagnosed). I don't know of any hospitalizations, but to dismiss it as impossible just doesn't seem reasonable."


DadHammer jumped in and wrote "The point is we can't shut down the country anymore. Teachers at risk should stay home. The rest of everyone else has to get back to life and work. We are killing our economy and other deaths will dwarf covid deaths.


That's the point. Kids and young adults are at less risk than the flu. It's time to get back to life."

My frustration was with him interjecting his well-known opinion which actually had no bearing on the discussion I was seeking to have with you regarding the age at which kids become old enough to transmit the virus.



Fan
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S
RandyAg98 said:

This thing's all but over in Houston.


Could someone please find a way to deliver this message to Sylvester Turner and Lina Hidalgo?
AggieBiker
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cc_ag92 said:

I apologize if it sounded like my most recent post was referring to you as dismissing the possibility. I honestly was trying to have a conversation with you.

My original reply to you was: "At what age do you think "kids" become old enough to be affected? I'm not talking about hospitalizations, just sick with symptoms, since you brought that up.
Or, bear with me... could some of the adults in the schools be affected and hospitalized? I know it's popular here to act like that's impossible, but in one of the districts near me, high school kids are getting diagnosed fairly often, with symptoms. It seems like they could transmit to their teachers (who are also getting diagnosed). I don't know of any hospitalizations, but to dismiss it as impossible just doesn't seem reasonable."


DadHammer jumped in and wrote "The point is we can't shut down the country anymore. Teachers at risk should stay home. The rest of everyone else has to get back to life and work. We are killing our economy and other deaths will dwarf covid deaths.


That's the point. Kids and young adults are at less risk than the flu. It's time to get back to life."

My frustration was with him interjecting his well-known opinion which actually had no bearing on the discussion I was seeking to have with you regarding the age at which kids become old enough to transmit the virus.
I think that can occur at any age even an infant. I don't think it is as likely with a younger person as with an older person merely because it appears the viral load in children is typically lower resulting in less symptoms and less infectiousness. But that doesn't mean I think it couldn't happen multiple times. Absolutely there is a risk of teachers becoming infected from their proximity to their students in the classroom.

"could some of the adults in the schools be affected and hospitalized?" Yes they could and that was my question to the doctor, is he seeing a significant number of educators? If so, then his supposition of the relationship to school starting would represent more plausibility of fact rather than mere speculation.
DadHammer
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The have and always will ignore the facts.
DadHammer
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Your right cc. I should not have commented.

My apology. I didn't read your reply thoroughly.

I thought you were implying we had to shut down schools because kids might transmit the virus.
RandyAg98
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They wouldn't listen.
cc_ag92
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Thanks for the apology. I know I'm sometimes guilty of not reading thoroughly myself. We're living in strange times and many of us are on edge. Not many of us take the time to apologize, so I truly appreciate it.
cc_ag92
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I do think that your question was a good one.

I'm not too concerned about my friends and family who teach in elementary schools. I am concerned about some of the ones who teach at the high school level because I haven't seen any clear indications of "the magic age" at which children become old enough to transmit.
Both of my young adults (18 and 21) are living away at college, so I'm not freaking out about this, yet still concerned.

Upon rereading my initial response to you, I do think my "bear with me..." was unnecessarily hostile. I'll follow DadHammer's lead and apologize for that. It wasn't my intent, but my week was pretty crappy and that apparently spilled out in that post.

Thanks for the conversation.
plain_o_llama
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Looking at the TMC data to attempt to gauge the flow of patients, things continue to look good. The rate total cases are being resolved (on average) is the fastest we have seen.



plain_o_llama
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I lost interest in attempting to tease anything out of general Case numbers a few months ago. Accordingly, I have followed the TMC and Dallas County data sets because they offer potentially reliable and consistent counts of hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths.

As has been discussed on numerous threads, there are a lot of difficulties in tracking death totals. What constitutes a Covid death? What is the best way to report a death? When it is identified as a Covid death, a probable Covid death, or via a lagging recognition of "day of death"?

We can see an example of this difficulty in the death totals from TMC over the last week. Per a note in their data release, one unit apparently had a back log of about 50 deaths that had gone unreported. Kudos to TMC for including the note and catching up their counts.





RandyAg98
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For Houston, this thing is wrapping up.

LINK
Fan
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RandyAg98 said:

For Houston, this thing is wrapping up.

LINK

I was just looking at those! It's hard to reconcile those numbers with Harris County's endless "Code Red." It's dishonest and misleading! I think our local Houston area leaders are creating confusion by continuing to push their everyone should still be at home agenda.
P.U.T.U
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It is not done by any means, they added another opening up metric that there has to be less than 200 new cases per day in Harris county with a population around 4.8 million which is less than 0.04%. Talk about moving the goal post again.

RandyAg98
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Especially when "New Cases" is a ridiculous metric to use for policy decisions. We are six months in, and there are 100 definitions of "New Cases" depending on who is counting and when they counted them. If you look at the TMC charts, they just released like 10,000 "new cases" in one day that were "backlogged"...whatever the hell that means. It's over. They just don't want to admit it.
P.U.T.U
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Harris county keeps adding metrics to stay shut down and is releasing new cases even if they were positive months ago. Using this method they can keep the county locked up as long as they want to. Just like 5 central Texas counties having to roll back opening up since they had 1 death and 15% of hospitalizations are Covid. For whatever reason they want the state to be shut down
DadHammer
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That is flat out horrible bs.

How does anyone not see what's going on here. Wow.
Knucklesammich
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Not disagreeing in any way but its important to define the "they" in this. TMC didn't push that backlog out, but the state yes?

TMC is really the only data feed I follow daily at this point because they have always given the state provided view and their own view which really shines a light on the issues mentioned above. Be it positivity, new cases, and some of the best ICU/Bed capacity information I've seen throughout this whole thing.



Absolutely looks like its winding down in Houston which is great news. I'm waiting on the news stories about how well TMC/Houston did in blunting the spike, managing capacity all while communicating clearly without the panic and grandstanding we've seen elsewhere. Doesn't fit the narrative so I'm not holding my breath.

Tired of the moving goalposts on this thing.

dermdoc
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Agree. And goalposts are not being moved based on science or medicine. Goalposts are being moved based on politics and money. And usually those are the two things that cause goalposts to move. And they are inextricably connected,
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
DadHammer
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https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/daily-cumulative-covid-19-positive-cases-for-greater-houston-area/

Average daily infections have fallen off a cliff. Down to 373/day from the high of 2,366.

Time to open up 100%.
Big_Time_Timmy_Jim
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DadHammer said:

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/daily-cumulative-covid-19-positive-cases-for-greater-houston-area/

Average daily infections have fallen off a cliff. Down to 373/day from the high of 2,366.

Time to open up 100%.


Minor clarification - the 'greater Houston region' is a 9 County area with over 7.5 million people, so it's not just houston...makes the 'new' cases number an even more ridiculous metric to use.
KlinkerAg11
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Aren't they testing the sewage now as another metric?
DadHammer
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Excellent point.
P.U.T.U
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7.5 million people, averaging 78 people in the hospital, and through another source I saw 12 deaths since I could not find the information on their website. Crazy this is considered the yellow/green area.
Bert315
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DadHammer said:

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/daily-cumulative-covid-19-positive-cases-for-greater-houston-area/

Average daily infections have fallen off a cliff. Down to 373/day from the high of 2,366.

Time to open up 100%.


Agreed. It should be noted that those high numbers may have included old tests. You will notice about 2 weeks ago they started to show which cases were older than 14 days I believe. Numbers were already coming down but really fell off then.

Our facilities have kind plateaued the last week or so with a slight increase. Not quite sure on the reasoning but we did not see a Labor Day surge or a bump from schools that is noticeable. Time to get back at it.
94chem
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dermdoc said:

Agree. And goalposts are not being moved based on science or medicine. Goalposts are being moved based on politics and money. And usually those are the two things that cause goalposts to move. And they are inextricably connected,


Can you explain the money part of that statement?
dermdoc
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94chem said:

dermdoc said:

Agree. And goalposts are not being moved based on science or medicine. Goalposts are being moved based on politics and money. And usually those are the two things that cause goalposts to move. And they are inextricably connected,


Can you explain the money part of that statement?
Hospitals are getting paid for reporting deaths as covid deaths which leads to over reporting. There is an obscene amount of money to be made off of widespread vaccines which may or may not be necessary.

And I believe democrats want the fear to continue to help them win elections which further advances their other agendas and rewards dem contributors.

[Moving this over to Politics for this discussion. - Staff]
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
94chem
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dermdoc said:

94chem said:

dermdoc said:

Agree. And goalposts are not being moved based on science or medicine. Goalposts are being moved based on politics and money. And usually those are the two things that cause goalposts to move. And they are inextricably connected,


Can you explain the money part of that statement?
Hospitals are getting paid for reporting deaths as covid deaths which leads to over reporting. There is an obscene amount of money to be made off of widespread vaccines which may or may not be necessary.

And I believe democrats want the fear to continue to help them win elections which further advances their other agendas and rewards dem contributors.


I'm not sure how hospitals are making money off this. Kinda seems like a welfare mom having a baby so she can get another check. Go for a short walk around the TMC medical-industrial complex, and tell me how a handful of Covid deaths helps them. They make far more money bilking cancer patients, smokers, obese, foreigners...
 
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