There are plenty of reasons I think the spread can be reducing. I'm not going to turn this into a mask/no mask debate, but when Texas hasn't been wearing masks for the majority of this and yet never had major outbreaks, I have a hard time believing that's near the top of the list:
1) Maybe heat helps. Or just in general, people doing outdoor activities which I've been pushing for a long time. COVID or no COVID, I wish things would trend this way for our overweight, sedentary society. But that's wishful thinking.
2) Maybe more and more of the public, even more so than we realize, are becoming immune. If the CDC is right, 40mm have had this thing assuming 100k deaths and a death rate of 0.26%. That's over 12% of the population. Now, some still have it, but let's assume 10% now immune. It stands to reason that when 1 out of every 10 have some immunity you'll start to slow the spread naturally. Even if it's ever so slowly at only 10%. Particularly when 20-25% have had it in NYC, our worst numbers in this. 10% isn't considerable, but can help some in theory. Get it to 20%, and it theoretically slows even more. Then even more at 30%.
3) Maybe the virus is weakening. Really hope this is the case.
4) Maybe people are becoming better at this social distancing thing. Or at least, we learned from our mistakes in what caused the super spreading. This seems to be spreading from workers in close proximity to each other, then bringing it home to their families. And/or, like all viruses, when exposed to someone for longer durations. Meat packing plants. Public transit. Workers bringing it home to families. etc. in general, this hasn't been a part of our lifestyle here in Texas where you are exposed to someone for longer durations. Maybe in some of the major cities downtown Dallas or Houston. But in general, not like the NE states.
5) Likely a big one. New York City's major f*** up skewed the data for the rest of the country considerably and now that this is coming down, our country's numbers on the whole are.
6) Maybe masks are helping some. But in states like Georgia, Florida, and Texas, we are the most likely to resist a mask, and it doesn't seem that we have needed it in doing so. Some areas are wearing them more, but the rate was already way down long before it became more prevalent. We all know where this disease is dangerous. Super spreading events. Public transit. Meat packing places and/or other jobs that require workers to be around each other for prolonged periods of time. It's probably wise to require masks at many of these places of work or where you cannot avoid being around people for prolonged periods of time. In general, trips to HEB don't seem to be causing any spread, or at least anything noticeable in the grand scheme of things. I've still yet to see where masks at HEB, or a public park or outdoor activity, or in general every day life activities are causing our superspreading events. Personally, I still don't think that's worth the tradeoff of seeing each others faces. Especially now that asymptomatic spread may not be anywhere near as bad as what was once thoughts. Masks in areas where there is potential for a major super spread? Probably a good idea.
Likely a combination of a few of the above.
