CDC now estimates 0.05% CFR (1 out of 2000) for symptomatic Americans younger than 50

12,251 Views | 89 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by buffalo chip
Keegan99
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AG
Quote:

The CDC's five scenarios include one based on "a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States." That scenario assumes a "basic reproduction number" of 2.5, meaning the average carrier can be expected to infect that number of people in a population with no immunity. It assumes an overall symptomatic case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.4 percent, falling to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rising to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older. For people in the middle (ages 5064), the estimated CFR is 0.2 percent.


https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/
Pulmcrit_ag
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So 1.3% IFR over 65? 15% of Americans are older than 65. ~50-70% of Americans will be infected. So 370k-520k people over 65 die. Thats a pretty reasonable number and probably reduced further by some sense of social distancing to at least spread out over time.
FlyRod
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Could you clarify what you mean by "reasonable?"
Pulmcrit_ag
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It's a deadly disease and that number is much less than the projections of initial uncontrolled spread. Many hundreds of thousands were always going to end up dying of this.
Dad
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Pulmcrit_ag said:

So 1.3% IFR over 65? 15% of Americans are older than 65. ~50-70% of Americans will be infected. So 370k-520k people over 65 die. Thats a pretty reasonable number and probably reduced further by some sense of social distancing to at least spread out over time.

How many millions of people over 65 were going to die in the next two years if Covid didn't exist?

I'm thinking in the 4 million range.
Jmiller
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aggie-beta said:

Pulmcrit_ag said:

So 1.3% IFR over 65? 15% of Americans are older than 65. ~50-70% of Americans will be infected. So 370k-520k people over 65 die. Thats a pretty reasonable number and probably reduced further by some sense of social distancing to at least spread out over time.

How many millions of people over 65 were going to die in the next two years if Covid didn't exist?

I'm thinking in the 4 million range.
What are you implying? The death rate for people over 65 is doubling because of COVID?
revvie
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I will take his conclusions with a grain of salt. This is an opinion piece, not a scientific peer reviewed article.
I hope his views are correct.
Pasquale Liucci
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"His conclusions" are just verbatim from CDC most likely conclusion. You do know that right?
Pasquale Liucci
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As in, his article directly links to CDC COVID response page for helping hospitals and medical professionals plan for future outbreaks. The CDC outlined upper and lower bounds of infectivity and disease severity (first four scenarios were different combos of these from high to low) as well as most likely. The author just added comments to CDC data.
Squadron7
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Just a reminder: The median age of COVID deaths is four years greater than the average life expectancy in the U.S. (78.8 years).
OldArmy71
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Just a reminder: People who actually live to 74 can expect to live another 11 years. COVID 19 robs many elderly people of a significant number of years.
GAC06
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As many as half the deaths are from nursing homes, where the median life expectancy is 5 months.
tysker
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OldArmy71 said:

Just a reminder: People who actually live to 74 can expect to live another 11 years. COVID 19 robs many elderly people of a significant number of years.
Just a reminder that a majority of COVID-related in deaths in North America can be traced to nursing homes (and similar facilities) and the average life expectancy for a person in a nursing home is about 13 months. COVID is pulling forward deaths but by several months, not several years or decades.
Carolin_Gallego
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Source? I believe that is false information (most likely to push a political narrative that will not play very well with voters).
We believe progress is made through MORE discussion, not LESS, and we believe that to be true even if the topics are uncomfortable and we occasionally disagree with one another. - TexAgs
The name-calling technique making false associations is a child's game. The propagandist who uses this technique hopes that the audience will reject a person and their argument on this false basis.
Squadron7
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OldArmy71 said:

Just a reminder: People who actually live to 74 can expect to live another 11 years. COVID 19 robs many elderly people of a significant number of years.


The sum of 74 + 11 and the median age of COVID deaths are essentially the same then.
GAC06
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I'm sure this won't end your flagging spree but here you go.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98172/social-support-key-nursing-home-length-stay-death

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/11/nursing-homes-us-data-coronavirus
GAC06
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Carolin_Gallego said:

Source?

This is not suppose to be the Political forum, guys.

Quote:

To be clear: This is not a place to post your opinion as fact or to post information not rooted in clear facts. This is not a place to have political arguments or to detail your opinions about how well or poorly the government is handling the issue. This is not a place to rant about media conspiracies. This is not a place to critique other people for their level of concern or efforts to prepare. There are forums for (some of) those conversations, but they don't belong here.



There is nothing political being espoused here so quit whining and trying derail the thread. This virus kills the oldest and sickest in our society, in most cases people who were already not long for this world. That's not political, it's factual.
Carolin_Gallego
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GAC06 said:

I'm sure this won't end your flagging spree but here you go.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98172/social-support-key-nursing-home-length-stay-death

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/11/nursing-homes-us-data-coronavirus

You did not link scientific studies. You should link the original source of the stated information.

Furthermore, your sources do not back up your implied claim that 'half of ALL COVID deaths happen in nursing homes'.
We believe progress is made through MORE discussion, not LESS, and we believe that to be true even if the topics are uncomfortable and we occasionally disagree with one another. - TexAgs
The name-calling technique making false associations is a child's game. The propagandist who uses this technique hopes that the audience will reject a person and their argument on this false basis.
GAC06
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AG
You obviously didn't read the article. What hobby will you take up once you can't be the hall monitor on this thread anymore?
Carolin_Gallego
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They are dubious statements to say the least. Yes, the elderly are at higher risk (as they are with most diseases). But to down play the risk to other groups and the potential spread of the virus by carriers is reckless.
We believe progress is made through MORE discussion, not LESS, and we believe that to be true even if the topics are uncomfortable and we occasionally disagree with one another. - TexAgs
The name-calling technique making false associations is a child's game. The propagandist who uses this technique hopes that the audience will reject a person and their argument on this false basis.
BowSowy
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Did someone make a sock account just to argue about COVID? Sure looks that way
TRM
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WatchOle said the user was a sock a couple weeks ago. How it didn't get banned then blew my mind.
tysker
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Carolin_Gallego said:

GAC06 said:

I'm sure this won't end your flagging spree but here you go.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98172/social-support-key-nursing-home-length-stay-death

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/11/nursing-homes-us-data-coronavirus

You did not link scientific studies. You should link the original source of the stated information.

Furthermore, your sources do not back up your implied claim that 'half of ALL COVID deaths happen in nursing homes'.

From Sweden: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3609493
Quote:

Upwards of 70 percent of the Covid19 death toll in Sweden has been people in elderly care services (as of mid-May 2020). We summarize the Covid19 tragedy in elderly care in Sweden, particularly in the City of Stockholm. We explain the institutional structure of elderly care administration and service provision. Those who died of Covid19 in Stockholm's nursing homes had a life-remaining median somewhere in the range of 5 to 9 months. Having contextualized the Covid19 problem in City of Stockholm, we present an interview of Barbro Karlsson, who works at the administrative heart of the Stockholm elderly care system. Her institutional knowledge and sentiment offer great insight into the concrete problems and challenges. There are really two sides to the elderly care Covid19 challenge: The vulnerability and frailty of those in nursing homes and the problem of nosocomial infectionthat is, infection caused by contact with others involved in the elderly care experience. The problem calls for targeted solutions by those close to the vulnerable individuals.

From Canada (an estimated 80% deaths are from nursing homes):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-canada-long-term-care-nursing-homes/2020/05/18/01494ad4-947f-11ea-87a3-22d324235636_story.html
Quote:

Nursing homes account for 81 percent of the country's covid-19 deaths, according to Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, a far greater proportion than in the United States.

GAC06
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Carolin_Gallego said:

They are dubious statements to say the least. Yes, the elderly are at higher risk (as they are with most diseases). But to down play the risk to other groups and the potential spread of the virus by carriers is reckless.


How do I "play down" an IFR of 0.05% for people under 50? That's not even accounting for health, just age. It's not a threat for most of the population. Sorry that upsets you for some bizarre reason.
Squadron7
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Carolin_Gallego said:

They are dubious statements to say the least. Yes, the elderly are at higher risk (as they are with most diseases). But to down play the risk to other groups and the potential spread of the virus by carriers is reckless.

If one group is of higher risk then it is mathematics itself that downplays the risk to other groups.

No one is denying the existence of outliers in the data set.
GAC06
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I haven't said anything political. You have been shown facts, and your argument is lacking substance. Predictably, you're trying to get the thread locked/deleted/moved.
billydean05
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Please find link.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

Squadron7
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billydean05 said:

Please find link.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70



Money paragraph from the above link:

"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 5.1 million people live in nursing homes or residential care facilities, representing 1.6% of the U.S. population. And yet residents in such facilities account for 42 percent of all deaths from COVID-19, for states that report such statistics."
Carolin_Gallego
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billydean05 said:

Please find link.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70


N.Y. is a big outlier in that data set consisting of the highest confirmed infection rate by a large margin and only 13.8% of deaths from LTCF / assisted living facilities.
We believe progress is made through MORE discussion, not LESS, and we believe that to be true even if the topics are uncomfortable and we occasionally disagree with one another. - TexAgs
The name-calling technique making false associations is a child's game. The propagandist who uses this technique hopes that the audience will reject a person and their argument on this false basis.
tysker
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Carolin_Gallego said:

IFR is not the only risk.
Yes, but it is the topic of the thread...
Squadron7
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Carolin_Gallego said:

billydean05 said:

Please find link.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70


N.Y. is a big outlier in that data set consisting of the highest confirmed infection rate by a large margin and only 13.8% of deaths from LTCF / assisted living facilities.

I guess that means that for the other 49 states, the average is even higher than 42%,

It makes sense. A rabbit warren like NYC is the perfect breeding ground for infectious anything. It is like a nursing home/Long term care facility writ large.
FireAg
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Carolin_Gallego said:

billydean05 said:

Please find link.

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70


N.Y. is a big outlier in that data set consisting of the highest confirmed infection rate by a large margin and only 13.8% of deaths from LTCF / assisted living facilities.
What is the mean age of the Covid-related deaths in NY to date?
GAC06
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That's addressed in the article.

" A number of policymakers in New York have alleged that nursing home facilities in that state have been underreporting their COVID-19 fatality figures, possibly because New York State counts as hospital deaths those of nursing home residents who die in a hospital. "

Keegan99
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Carolin_Gallego said:

Keegan99 said:

Wrong forum. Mods please move to the COVID board. Thanks.
You had the correct forum to begin with. The CDC study was not linked in the OP. A political opinion piece was cited.


No. It was posted on Billy's board by accident.
Bruce Almighty
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Some State was over 50%. Pennsylvania maybe?
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