Or was this spike due to mass testing with new kits?

That some pretty scary technology

Johnny2Fan said:

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Or was this spike due to mass testing with new kits?

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Our testing is just now ramping up - we did 100,000 tests yesterday and we will get those results over the next 2 to 10 days. The numbers we are seeing in new infections came from the past 2 to 10 days or so. It's takes close to a week before you seek treatment so what we are seeing now came from infections that started 2 weeks or more ago.

We didn't get serious about shutting things down until, what? A week ago?

I think between testing ramping up and the effect of our social distancing we shouldn't expect to see the peak of infections for another month or so, towards the end of April.

based on the delay between testing and results, and the suspected time between exposure and symptoms, it will take at least 3 weeks before we would start seeing the "results" of social distancing efforts.

who?mikejones said:

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That some pretty scary technology

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What do you think all the fine print that "free" services make you agree to use their services is for?

who?mikejones said:

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That some pretty scary technology

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Haha, that's nothing!

Stimulus plan should have provided an oz of Sweet sensimilla to help people stay in and chill.

Do you really think people are practicing social distancing? From wait I have seen and experienced on a daily basis people are going about their normal lives other than going to restaurants/bars and sending kids to school. Instead of sitting at home many are just finding other public things to do with their free time. If this is how we take things seriously we are screwed...thank goodness this virus doesn't have a higher death rate.

Its 5:25 pm on a Thursday in Los Angeles and Google Maps isn't showing very much traffic.

I do believe that a lot of people are practicing social distancing.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Its 5:25 pm on a Thursday in Los Angeles and Google Maps isn't showing very much traffic.

I do believe that a lot of people are practicing social distancing.

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I agree. It's remarkable how many people are staying put. However, it's never going to be enough for Karen.

who?mikejones said:

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That some pretty scary technology

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You should see what happens when you analyze fitness trackers that people can post/share, especially for overseas troops.

ag0207 said:

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Do you really think people are practicing social distancing? From wait I have seen and experienced on a daily basis people are going about their normal lives other than going to restaurants/bars and sending kids to school. Instead of sitting at home many are just finding other public things to do with their free time. If this is how we take things seriously we are screwed...thank goodness this virus doesn't have a higher death rate.

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We absolutely are here in SF. Hardly any foot traffic around the places I've gone, relative to normal anyway. Rarely groups over 2. People take wide paths around when passing. I often have people walk into the streets when I'm passing with my dog. Might be because there's a wide range of ages where I live, so while it's still a younger area on the whole, they skew a few years older than average. I am pretty sure that this has made a difference in behavior.

Exception being millennials in the park. While significantly fewer than normal on nice days, there were way more than I expected. Honestly I couldn't believe it, especially since most other areas I walk people seem to be going out of their way to avoid each other. And for the most part, people are staying inside when possible.

Being in the city right now is a bit eerie to be honest, but folks here are taking this quite seriously. No one here is "going about their normal lives," I guarantee that.

People keep saying millennials are doing this or that but we are likely older than the kids you are seeing out and are all at home being anti social with kids and spouses.

I think at this point "millennial" is just an example of genericization. It is just short hand for "that darn younger generation that is filled with useless idiots" when said by crotchety old *******s.

I don't doubt a non-insignificant number of people are going over to others' homes.

The good news is that limits social connectivity within a friend group, or maybe a few friend groups given some people will act as bridges to other groups.

While not ideal, that's significantly better than bars, cafes, restaurants, offices, etc. which create hundreds or thousands of bridges between groups in a single evening.

KT_Ag08 said:

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People keep saying millennials are doing this or that but we are likely older than the kids you are seeing out and are all at home being anti social with kids and spouses.

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Nope. These are all between the ages of 25-35. This is a very young city, but we have very few people under 25 here. Also, most people here in that age are single. Marriage with kids is a rarity in that age demographic here. Once mid 30s hits, people suddenly decide to settle down and move out of the city. These are millennials, I guarantee it. If this were the suburbs, I would agree with you though.

When you look at the numbers we see or are being reported today, you gotta remember we are actually seeing what the spread was like two weeks ago. It takes 5-10 days for people to show symptoms, potentially another couple days to seek medical help as symptoms worsen (and only the sickest or clearest symptoms are getting tested), and then another few days to get those results back in a lot of cases. So really we are looking back two weeks ago and what was happening then, which was right about the time a lot of the "major" social distancing actions started to take place. The NBA halting, sports shutting down, schools and universities starting to close, etc.

If we want to see what the results of our efforts today will be, we are gonna have to wait two weeks to really see it in the data. If we had better testing we could have quicker results and better resolution about the problem, but we just don't.

Dad-O-Lot said:

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based on the delay between testing and results, and the suspected time between exposure and symptoms, it will take at least 3 weeks before we would start seeing the "results" of social distancing efforts.

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The problem is, like the OP shows, if people don't see immediate results they are going to be saying it isn't working and clamoring to open things back up.

Johnny2Fan said:

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Or was this spike due to mass testing with new kits?

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Use your brain. I don't mean to be rude but honestly, no real volume of testing has been done until about the time states SIP. Of course it's because we finally began to test.

ag0207 said:

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JDo you really think people are practicing social distancing? From wait I have seen and experienced on a daily basis people are going about their normal lives other than going to restaurants/bars and sending kids to school. Instead of sitting at home many are just finding other public things to do with their free time. If this is how we take things seriously we are screwed...thank goodness this virus doesn't have a higher death rate.

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Guess it depends on where you are. In Northern California we are taking it totally seriously. Nobody is going about life as normal, not even close.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

OverSeas AG said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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who?mikejones said:

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That some pretty scary technology

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You should see what happens when you analyze fitness trackers that people can post/share, especially for overseas troops.

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I quit wearing mine because of that.

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Meh, anything coming from a fitness tracker pales in comparison to what the apps on your phone and computer are doing. Big data is everywhere.

Strava fixed the heat map issue for troops overseas.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess