Safe at Home said:

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The number of new deaths in the US peaked at 57 three days ago and then dropped to 49 then 46 yesterday. Just a blip or something meaningful? If the average time from infection to death is 15-20 days could we be starting to see the effects of people gaining awareness os social distancing?

Chart of new deaths by day

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Exsurge Domine said:

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Safe at Home said:

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The number of new deaths in the US peaked at 57 three days ago and then dropped to 49 then 46 yesterday. Just a blip or something meaningful? If the average time from infection to death is 15-20 days could we be starting to see the effects of people gaining awareness os social distancing?

Chart of new deaths by day

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We are showing 86 today

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Section327Ag said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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Safe at Home said:

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The number of new deaths in the US peaked at 57 three days ago and then dropped to 49 then 46 yesterday. Just a blip or something meaningful? If the average time from infection to death is 15-20 days could we be starting to see the effects of people gaining awareness os social distancing?

Chart of new deaths by day

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We are showing 86 today

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In this data set the last 7 days of US deaths are listed as
12
16
23
42
0
110
80

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Safe at Home said:

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The number of new deaths in the US peaked at 57 three days ago and then dropped to 49 then 46 yesterday. Just a blip or something meaningful? If the average time from infection to death is 15-20 days could we be starting to see the effects of people gaining awareness os social distancing?

Chart of new deaths by day

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Chetos said:

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Bankeraggie said:

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Chetos said:

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Plot it against the common flu

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I honestly cannot believe any educated person is still saying this.

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I cant believe you are afraid to evaluate. everything needs to be weighed against a relative known. Especially unknowns. This is the only way to understand the extent of consequence and properly design a mitigation plan.

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MaroonStain said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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Chetos said:

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Bankeraggie said:

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Chetos said:

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Plot it against the common flu

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I honestly cannot believe any educated person is still saying this.

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I cant believe you are afraid to evaluate. everything needs to be weighed against a relative known. Especially unknowns. This is the only way to understand the extent of consequence and properly design a mitigation plan.

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I think it's still a fair question, but it's not always easy to find statistics for each country. However, with some simple math, we can get a rough comparison to the US. Obviously there is more to it than my simple math below, but I don't have time to figure out our percentage of old people, smokers, etc. compared to Italy.

Italy is currently the worst case scenario, so I am going to use them to say how bad it can get. For the past week, as the virus has ramped up, they've averaged 600 deaths per day. Flu season is six months, so I'll use 180 days. If they were to maintain that average for the duration of flu season (currently there isn't much evidence this goes away after fly season, but I am just using that time for comparison) that's over 100,000 deaths for Italy. Now consider Italy has about 60 million people. The US has 300 million people, so you can multiple that 100,000 by 5 and get 500,000 deaths in the US for unchecked coronavirus. I think they estimate the flu kills 20,000-40,000 each year.

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Please cease the hysteria posting. Italy's population density, demographics and health care system are much different than US. Extrapolating death numbers is sadistic and does not add any positive value to any crisis.

Added to Ignore...

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Pumpkinhead said:

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mazag08 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Chetos said:

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Bankeraggie said:

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Chetos said:

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Plot it against the common flu

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I honestly cannot believe any educated person is still saying this.

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I cant believe you are afraid to evaluate. everything needs to be weighed against a relative known. Especially unknowns. This is the only way to understand the extent of consequence and properly design a mitigation plan.

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Here were some recent remarks on March 20th by the U.S. government, Chetos, related to their thoughts on the potential consequences of COVID-19 compared to the flu:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-c-oronavirus-task-force-press-briefing/

It is felt that COVID-19 is about two to three times more contagious than the regular flu, and potentially about 10 times more deadly. And no vaccine yet available. That if pretty much the Cliff Notes version of why COVID-19 is not being treated as 'just another flu', and why you are seeing governments across the world taking forcing social distancing, despite the huge economic costs.

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And the "feelings" that produce that data are faulty, because we have absolutely no idea how many have had or currently have the chinese virus.

It's more likely the death rate is .01% than 1%, much less the astronomical numbers we've seen "experts" posting.

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I think the CDC and people like Dr. Fauci deserve to be called experts, not "experts" with double quotes. They are the people educated and experienced with infectious diseases in our country. Obviously doesn't mean they are always right or their models are going to be correct, but they are about the best we got.

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mazag08 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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mazag08 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Chetos said:

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Bankeraggie said:

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Chetos said:

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Plot it against the common flu

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I honestly cannot believe any educated person is still saying this.

---

I cant believe you are afraid to evaluate. everything needs to be weighed against a relative known. Especially unknowns. This is the only way to understand the extent of consequence and properly design a mitigation plan.

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Here were some recent remarks on March 20th by the U.S. government, Chetos, related to their thoughts on the potential consequences of COVID-19 compared to the flu:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-c-oronavirus-task-force-press-briefing/

It is felt that COVID-19 is about two to three times more contagious than the regular flu, and potentially about 10 times more deadly. And no vaccine yet available. That if pretty much the Cliff Notes version of why COVID-19 is not being treated as 'just another flu', and why you are seeing governments across the world taking forcing social distancing, despite the huge economic costs.

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And the "feelings" that produce that data are faulty, because we have absolutely no idea how many have had or currently have the chinese virus.

It's more likely the death rate is .01% than 1%, much less the astronomical numbers we've seen "experts" posting.

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I think the CDC and people like Dr. Fauci deserve to be called experts, not "experts" with double quotes. They are the people educated and experienced with infectious diseases in our country. Obviously doesn't mean they are always right or their models are going to be correct, but they are about the best we got.

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That's fair, as long as you always keep in mind that models are just models. They don't think for themselves or use logical reasoning. They provide an output measured the way the creator intended based on a finite set of inputs. We don't have remotely close to 100% of the inputs, and we don't even know if ANY of the inputs are accurate.

So the models are nothing more than background noise until we know the exact data. And until we know how many people have and have had the virus, the models can't tell us anything within even a large error range.

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