Everyday after being on lockdown for 10 days, then what is the point? If this is not containable then why are we still trying to contain it? Let's return to some sense of normalcy and treat those who get it to minimize the serious cases.

Maybe cause it'd be 10x worse if they did nothing?

[facepalm]

10 days isn't enough

Italy waited too long to start isolation

TAMC11 said:

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Everyday after being on lockdown for 10 days, then what is the point? If this is not containable then why are we still trying to contain it? Let's return to some sense of normalcy and treat those who get it to minimize the serious cases.

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Italy's growth rate is slowing, however you'll need a logarithmic scale to see it (red is Italy, blue is U.S.).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html

AvidAggie said:

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Maybe cause it'd be 10x worse if they did nothing?

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But maybe not?

The point is to slow the spread to not overwhelm the hospital system.

So do we know how many people are actually in the hospital system in the US for Covid?

TAMC11 said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Maybe cause it'd be 10x worse if they did nothing?

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But maybe not?

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Thanks for your expert opinion sir.

TAMC11 said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Maybe cause it'd be 10x worse if they did nothing?

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But maybe not?

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And maybe the earth is flat?

SkiMo said:

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[facepalm]

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Don't touch your face!

Italy is spread out but their population is densely packed into small towns where everyone is on top of each other.

Italy is in trouble because China has been buying up companies and factories across northern Italy for the past decade. The Chinese population and business ownership in northern Italy is so vast that there are regular direct flights between Milan and Wuhan.

All of those Chinese workers went back to China for Chinese New Year then returned to Italy and their densely populated towns where everyone is on top of each other and got big groups of people sick very fast.

That caused the explosion of sick people and over-run on their hospital system that they just can't keep up with or catch up with.

It doesn't help that Italy has the second oldest population of any country in the world.

Thank God we turned off the faucet of Chinese flights when we did! Had we waited a couple more weeks, we'd be in a different place in the US

TAMC11 said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Maybe cause it'd be 10x worse if they did nothing?

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But maybe not?

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There is significant a lag time between start of restrictions and when you see an effect, and earlier in the process, a lot of Italians blew off the rules and kept partying and doing their normal routines. Was only over time as the deaths starting rolling in that the problem began to really sink in with more of the public. They have been getting more and more aggressive over time now even calling in some of the Military to enforce the restrictions.

texaggie90 said:

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Italy is spread out but their population is densely packed into small towns where everyone is on top of each other.

Italy is in trouble because China has been buying up companies and factories across northern Italy for the past decade. The Chinese population and business ownership in northern Italy is so vast that there are regular direct flights between Milan and Wuhan.

All of those Chinese workers went back to China for Chinese New Year then returned to Italy and their densely populated towns where everyone is on top of each other and got big groups of people sick very fast.

That caused the explosion of sick people and over-run on their hospital system that they just can't keep up with or catch up with.

It doesn't help that Italy has the second oldest population of any country in the world.

Thank God we turned off the faucet of Chinese flights when we did! Had we waited a couple more weeks, we'd be in a different place in the US

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Thank you for this info. I have been curious about why Italy has been hit so hard. This explains it.

Former CDC director: There's a long war ahead and our Covid-19 response must adapt

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html

Today's severe cases are in people infected 10 to 14 days ago who got sick five to six days ago and have steadily progressed to severe illness. That means cases will continue to skyrocket for weeks after spread stops

Average time to death is between 2 and 3 weeks after initial infection, so almost all the people dying today were exposed before the lockdown even started. While Lombardy was locked down earlier, the Northern provinces started lockdown on March 8th, so tomorrow marks two weeks there. Naturally people fled ahead of the lockdown, some carrying the disease with them.

Rest of the country went into full lockdown on the 10th, so Tuesday marks two weeks since then. You should see cases level off even more after that date, and hopefully the death rate begins to plateau.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

This is a good article.

As far as the rest of the country on full blown lockdown on the 10th. I would say much later than that, more like last few days to a moderate, not full blown lockdown.

We didnt get a more strict, work from home if you can order at my work till Thursday the 19th. And I work in defense which is closely tied to the government


Still lots of people taking kids to daycare too

TAMC11 said:

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texaggie90 said:

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Italy is spread out but their population is densely packed into small towns where everyone is on top of each other.

Italy is in trouble because China has been buying up companies and factories across northern Italy for the past decade. The Chinese population and business ownership in northern Italy is so vast that there are regular direct flights between Milan and Wuhan.

All of those Chinese workers went back to China for Chinese New Year then returned to Italy and their densely populated towns where everyone is on top of each other and got big groups of people sick very fast.

That caused the explosion of sick people and over-run on their hospital system that they just can't keep up with or catch up with.

It doesn't help that Italy has the second oldest population of any country in the world.

Thank God we turned off the faucet of Chinese flights when we did! Had we waited a couple more weeks, we'd be in a different place in the US

---

Thank you for this info. I have been curious about why Italy has been hit so hard. This explains it.

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(1) The early cases in Italy were Chinese tourists and white Italians.
(2) There are not commercial direct or non-stop flights between Wuhan and anywhere in Italy.
(3) There is evidence of the virus entering Italy via Germany.
(4) Italy "turned the faucet off" flights to China before the United States.
(5) China has massive investment in many other places; indeed, it has more invested in a number of European countries than it does Italy.
(6) There are many Chinese living in Italy nowadays, but there are more Chinese living in multiple other countries.
(7) There are, generally, certain cultural and geographical reasons why the virus was able to take root so hard in Italy.

This Chinese-Italian business partnership has become a rallying cry of anti-Chinese hardliners. And is full of misinformation.

At best, at this point, it is unconfirmed and at worst, it is flat wrong.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-21350013

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany/amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/business/italy-china-far-right.amp.html

https://www.ecnmy.org/engage/prato-chinese-stuff-look-around/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketplace.org/2013/04/22/chinese-refashion-italys-textile-industry/amp

http://www.macrolotto.it/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/minority-report/201807/made-in-italy%3famp

texaggie90 said:

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Italy is spread out but their population is densely packed into small towns where everyone is on top of each other.

Italy is in trouble because China has been buying up companies and factories across northern Italy for the past decade. The Chinese population and business ownership in northern Italy is so vast that there are regular direct flights between Milan and Wuhan.

All of those Chinese workers went back to China for Chinese New Year then returned to Italy and their densely populated towns where everyone is on top of each other and got big groups of people sick very fast.

That caused the explosion of sick people and over-run on their hospital system that they just can't keep up with or catch up with.

It doesn't help that Italy has the second oldest population of any country in the world.

Thank God we turned off the faucet of Chinese flights when we did! Had we waited a couple more weeks, we'd be in a different place in the US

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Did we turn off the faucet of Italian flights?

793 deaths reported in Italy today. Damn,Deaths have been going up and up past few days. I think that is about 2500 now in the past 4-5 days. Really hope things start leveling off for them soon.

texaggie90 said:

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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-21350013

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany/amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/business/italy-china-far-right.amp.html

https://www.ecnmy.org/engage/prato-chinese-stuff-look-around/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketplace.org/2013/04/22/chinese-refashion-italys-textile-industry/amp

http://www.macrolotto.it/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/minority-report/201807/made-in-italy%3famp

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Yes, I'm aware there are many Chinese textile workers in Italy, although most of your links discuss Tuscany, and more specifically Prato, which is not at the epicenter of the breakout in Italy.


None of that disputes known facts such as the existence or non-existence of flights between Wuhan and Milan, or actually supports anything in particular about the outbreak in northern Italy.

TXAggie2011, I agree more with texaggie90.

I've been to Italy 4 times over the last 10 years and we have always noticed just how many restaurants and shops are owned by Asians (not sure how many are Chinese, Korean, etc). But some of what he said does make sense.

Looks like we missed passing Italys single day new case number by 44

We passed Spain for total cases and are currently #3 behind Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Ag Defense Rules said:

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TXAggie2011, I agree more with texaggie90.

I've been to Italy 4 times over the last 10 years and we have always noticed just how many restaurants and shops are owned by Asians (not sure how many are Chinese, Korean, etc). But some of what he said does make sense.

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Japan, South Korea, and all of Southeast Asia should be absolutely ravaged. The UK and France have significantly larger Chinese populations than Italy.

The only particular vector identified by texaggie90 are direct flights from Wuhan to Milan that, to the best of my knowledge and searching, don't actually exist. Italy has been shut off from China for almost two months. Italy screwed up the response and its spiraled out of control due to domestic factors.

This issue was, best I can tell, largely spurred along by an article by Helen Raleigh, who is a financial adviser in Colorado who has some really strong opinions about China that get her airtime in particular circles. Her article on a highly political website was opportunistic garbage to take a shot at Italian foreign policy.


But really, all I'm saying is at this point, is that this is at best unconfirmed. And plenty of misinformation is being attached to it.

TAMC11 said:

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Everyday after being on lockdown for 10 days, then what is the point? If this is not containable then why are we still trying to contain it? Let's return to some sense of normalcy and treat those who get it to minimize the serious cases.

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If it isn't containable China wouldn't be able to hide it anymore.

I can't remember where I read it, but I read somewhere that even after they stopped flights to China, people would just fly into other EU countries and then take a train to Italy.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Spain. They are also seeing rapid increases. They look to be 7-10 days behind Italy.

jamey said:

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Looks like we missed passing Italys single day new case number by 44

We passed Spain for total cases and are currently #3 behind Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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A quick check says Italy has ~40 million people vs the US at 300+ million.

We "should" have more cases given how big the US is (geographically and people).

AgLiving06 said:

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jamey said:

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Looks like we missed passing Italys single day new case number by 44

We passed Spain for total cases and are currently #3 behind Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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A quick check says Italy has ~40 million people vs the US at 300+ million.

We "should" have more cases given how big the US is (geographically and people).

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Population density. Italy is 532 per square mile. US is 94

Cromagnum said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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jamey said:

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Looks like we missed passing Italys single day new case number by 44

We passed Spain for total cases and are currently #3 behind Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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A quick check says Italy has ~40 million people vs the US at 300+ million.

We "should" have more cases given how big the US is (geographically and people).

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Population density. Italy is 532 per square mile. US is 94

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Not in the populated areas. So good news for Nebraska and Wyoming...etc but not so much for the places most of us live in

TAMC11 said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Maybe cause it'd be 10x worse if they did nothing?

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But maybe not?

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Don't take this personally, but this quote perfectly summarizes everything that is wrong with America today.