Early results of federal rainfall study show dramatic growth in 100-year storm

3,150 Views | 3 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by txags92
PJYoung
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AG
Early results of federal rainfall study show dramatic growth in 100-year storm

Quote:

The standard used by area officials to estimate the amount of rain that would fall during a so-called "100-year storm" could be up to five inches short across Harris County, according to preliminary results of a highly anticipated federal study, a finding that promises to spur sweeping changes in development regulations, floodplain maps and infrastructure projects.

Preliminary results released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association analysis of decades-worth of data show that across the county the "100-year storm" -- or a storm that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year -- has risen by three to five inches in Harris County since the last study was conducted in 2001.
SeMgCo87
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AG
PJYoung said:

Early results of federal rainfall study show dramatic growth in 100-year storm

Quote:

The standard used by area officials to estimate the amount of rain that would fall during a so-called "100-year storm" could be up to five inches short across Harris County, according to preliminary results of a highly anticipated federal study, a finding that promises to spur sweeping changes in development regulations, floodplain maps and infrastructure projects.

Preliminary results released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association analysis of decades-worth of data show that across the county the "100-year storm" -- or a storm that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year -- has risen by three to five inches in Harris County since the last study was conducted in 2001.

I expected this.

The Flood maps will get re-drawn, and a lot more houses will be in the 100 yr flood plain.

And remember, the 1% chance is any given year, so if you dont flood for 5 yrs in the 100 yr Flood plain, you are now up to 5% chance, and 6% next yr. 30% over the life of a mortgage.

It would help the flood insurance program if Mortgage Underwriters made flood insurance mandatory for 500 yr benchmark, just like the 100 yr requirement.
CalAG
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AG
SeMgCo87 said:



And remember, the 1% chance is any given year, so if you dont flood for 5 yrs in the 100 yr Flood plain, you are now up to 5% chance, and 6% next yr. 30% over the life of a mortgage.






That is not how statistics works...

The chance of a 100 year flood is always 1% in any given year whether one occurred the year before or not is immaterial to the chance of the flood occurring this year.

The chance of a 100 year flood event occurring over the life of a 30year mortgage is actually approximately 26%.

If you haven't flooded for 5 years, the chance of a 100 year flood coming in year 6 is still 1%.
BrazosDog02
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AG
Sweet. Now more people can be forced to have insurance for an event that is very unlikely to occur. Sounds great!
txags92
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BrazosDog02 said:

Sweet. Now more people can be forced to have insurance for an event that is very unlikely to occur. Sounds great!
Huh? How on earth did you come to that conclusion? I can't count how many 100-year floods I have experienced living in Houston for 48 years.
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