Record: 14-9 (2-4)
Team BA: .279 (.287 in conference)
Team ERA: 3.84 (3.15 in conference)

Conference record deceiving? They have had 4 close losses and 2 blowout wins. In each series, if you look at runs scored instead of W/L, it looks like Nebraska has dominated both Tech and Missouri. They outscored Tech 27-17 and Missouri 20-10.

Weekend Rotation:
Friday: Tony Watson
1-1 (5 starts), 3.31 ERA, 14BB, 26Ks, 32.1 IP, .213 BAA
Saturday: Charlie Shirek
2-2 (5 starts), 4.65 ERA, 10BB (+7HBP), 21Ks, 31 IP, .304 BAA
Sunday: Johnny Dorn
4-1 (6 starts), 4.58 ERA, 9BB (+10HBP), 26Ks, 35.1IP, .245 BAA

Dorn and Watson are returning weekend starters. Shirek was their midweek guy last year.

Bullpen:
They do closer by committee it appears. No one has more than 3 saves and that guy has an ERA of 9.00 (5.40 in conference).

In order by # of relief appearances in conference (Season ERA/Conference ERA, Season BAA/Conference BAA):
Zach Herr - 2.89/0.00 .188/.500
Erik Bird - 9.00/5.40 .400/.455
Matt Foust - 2.95/0.00 .222/.111 (3 midweek starts)
Thad Weber - 0.00/0.00 .130/.250
Steve Edlefson - 2.53/2.45 .231/.267
Luke Wertz - 3.48/0.00 .237/.000
Drew Bowman - 3.38/2.45 .269/.231 (4 midweek starts)
Mike Harmelink - 3.38/27.00 .207/1.000

The good news about the bullpen is that it their main guys appear to have struggled in conference (Bird & Herr both allowing .400+ BAA). The bad news, this appears (statistically) to be a very good and very deep bullpen.

Their Offense:
BAA: .279 for the season (.287 in conference)
Runs: 6.13/gm (7.83/gm in conference)

Nebraska has shuffled their lineup quite a bit since conference started and I suspect that shuffling could continue. I think the 1 hole and the 3 hole are about the only things set in stone.

The lineup I expect is this:

Belfonte (L) .294 (17 BB 9 HBP)
Tezak (S) .387 (7 doubles, 2HR -- has spent part of the season batting near the bottom of the lineup)
Brown (R) .276 (5HR, 7 doubles)
Opitz (L) .316 (4HR, 6 doubles)
Corriston (R) .378 (3HR, 6 doubles -- just moved up from down in the order)
Gerch (R) .253
Lanning (R) .263
Nimmo (L) .250
Wehrle (R) .203 (14 walks--batted close to .370 last year at the top of the order)

This lineup is not very imposing. I hope our pitching can come out and really perform well this week.

As for our rotation and lineup, I expect Newmann/Thebeau/Migl. I think Ueckert and Renfro will be trusted more this week and I dont think you see Nicholson throwing 140 pitches. I would expect 2 shorter outtings (~2-4 innings a peice) instead of a short and a long outting. I think you will see the same lineup we threw at TCU, but we might see Stouffer back at 3B and Greene in RF.

First of all, excellent, excellent job. Really appreciate the analysis.

Personally, I agree with just about everything except I think RC leaves Greene at 3rd, at least in Friday's game. If Greene has another 2 error inning, then yes, he will most likely be in right field. But I'm willing to say most of what happened last night was just nervousness. I think he'll be just fine.

Had Migl not thrown last night, I would say start him Saturday and save Thebeau for Sunday, but in this instance you're probably right, let him throw Sunday, I think he's earned it. Nicholson can come out of the pen Friday and Sunday if both games go to pot, with Ueckert (how the heck do you pronounce that anyway) and Renfro for Saturday. Or we could see someone else entirely come out on Saturday, which works for me because it could potentially cut down Nicholson's pitch count. And let's not forget Meyer...ok, so a lot of you might like to considering how he's done recently, but I think if we're looking good in either Friday or Saturday, he should get a little work. If the problem is something mental, he's just going to have tough it out himself, and sometimes the only way to do that is to just keep chugging along.

we win 2 out of 3

Maximus, I would like to see Meyer get the start in our next midweek game. If he can do well a couple of weeks in a row in midweek games, then I think he might get a look again on the weekend of Thebeau or Migl are struggling. The other pitcher who I would like to see in either long relief or in a midweek start would be Rivers. A guy I would like to see given an opportunity in short relief who we havent seen much of is Campfield. I think he has something like 1.7 K's per inning pitched. With the way our defense is playing, we really could use pitchers who dont let the ball in play much. Thats one reason I think Thebeau could come around and be solid for us. He seems to get more Ks than guys like Meyer and Migl.

Yeah, I forgot all about Rivers and Campfield. And what's the deal with Blake Rampy? Did I miss something?

and kind of the bottomline line to all this is that the Ags need and should win this series. This is not a vintage Husker team coming to Olsen Field. 2 of 3 minimum for the maroon-n-white.

I would like to sweep so the Ags would have some buffer for the 6-game road trip to Tech and Mizzou, but the pitching will really have to step up.

[This message has been edited by ag711 (edited 3/28/2007 12:58p).]

Damn! I missed the words of wisdom from Ag711.

I agree completely W. While I was writing the analysis I was thinking, "Wow, this is not nearly as good of a team as what the Huskers normally have." However, they still have a very deep pitching staff while we are just the opposite.

Did Jaba graduate/leave after last season at NU? He has to be the best named pitcher of all time. God bless Star Wars. . .

I guess Jaba went pro, but I am not sure.

Jaba was the Yankees 2nd pick in the draft last year (41st pick overall)......I assume he signed.

found this on the Yankees website dated 10/13/2006

quote:

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Joba Chamberlain has probably dreamed of his first professional start since he was mowing down Little Leaguers. But things didn't go quite as planned for the 2006 first-round draft pick.
The big right-hander out of the University of Nebraska made his pro debut for the West Oahu Canefires on Opening Day of the Hawaiian Winter League. Chamberlain pitched two innings of relief against the North Shore Honu, but gave up a third-inning solo homer that broke a 2-2 tie and saddled him with the first loss of his career.

But he's quickly learning how to bounce back. Chamberlain showed off the power he was known for in college, striking out eight batters in four shutout innings against Honolulu on Monday.

The former Husker struck out 232 batters in two seasons at Nebraska (208 IP) and was 10-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 2005.

Chamberlain and 11 other Yankees prospects are currently playing for the Canefires and the Peoria Saguaros of the Arizona Fall League.

---

thanks Byron.....you saved me a lot of time....I'm just going to link to this thread from my site instead of doing a preview.

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Check out "Texas A&M & Baseball In No Particular Order"
at tamu-and-baseball.com

No problem Ryan. I just checked out your website for the first time in a long time and I had forgotten about what a great job you do. The pitching breakdown you posted last tuesday was particularly interesting.

I forgot to mention that if we commit 7 errors, we will probably lose and make their offense look MUCH better than they really are.