...during the first half of the season. Not so sure about the final outcome, though, but things aren't as bleak as many make them out to be.

Let's make some assumptions:
1. Biggio equals last year's production at the plate
2. Bagwell increases his numbers by eliminating the hitch in his swing
3. Ensberg returns to his 2003 self and doesn't go homerless half the season
4. Everett continues to improve offensively
5. Berkman doesn't suffer a major set back when he does return
6. Lane finally gets a chance to play and produces like he's been expected to.
7. Chavez gets more time behind the plate and increases the offensive production from that position.
8. Pettitte makes full recovery
9. Oswalt has career year
10. Backe continues to produce quality starts
11. Lidge stays lights out
12. (big one here) Redding has a year comparable to his stuff (Hey, it snowed in South Texas this year)
13. Young arms emerge for bullpen stability (can't be any worse than Miceli)

Things that would really help:
1. Clemens returning
2. Quality outfield acquisition
3. Quality pitching acquisition(s)

Other things to consider:
1. Less presure to win.
2. Potentially a much younger team.
3. No Jimy Williams

Biggest negatives:
1. Cardinals
2. Cubs

The Astros still have a chance to be a good team, possibly even reaching 90 wins. Making the playoffs out of the Central Division will be tough, though, if not impossible, unless things change between now and the start of the season. If Clemens comes back and the Astros find outfield help, I wouldn't count them out, but maybe that's just the optimist in me. For some reason I see this team pulling together and having a good year.

Only way to know is to wait and see what happens next season. They sure surprised all of us after the allstar break.

man, that is a lot of assumptions. I hope the 'stros do good this season, but they need to pull something out this offseason.

Dude, put the pipe down and slowly back away from the keyboard.

[This message has been edited by mm98 (edited 1/10/2005 10:22p).]

Never underestimate the effect of not having Jimy Williams at the helm. Last year's first half was TERRIBLE with him. Seemingly every game, the 1st inning began with Biggio getting on base followed by an Everett sac bunt. Heck, Everett missed 6 weeks and was barely passed for the league lead in sac bunts in the final week of the season. Small ball with the likes of Bagwell, Kent, Berkman, Hidalgo, and Ensberg. AAAARGGH!

Northgater, I think you make a lot of sense. In my opinion the biggest offensive need is production from the catcher position because Asmus is an automatic out. They need to add some speed probably from the younger guys.
This should be a very interesting Spring Training season

Full Speed Ahead - Fire At Will - Gig'em

Who expected the Marlins to win the World Series at the beginning of the season two years ago?

You know, some of Northgaters assumptions aren't all that bad. If most of this happens they will everone a run for their money.

Those are some reasonable assumptions in my opinion. However, they are still assumptions, and there are still 13 of them. It would be a lot easier if we we're not banking on career years out of Oswalt and banking on all of our young talent to produce like they should.

I would wager that 7-8 of your assumptions will happen, the Astros will be competitive, but will probably come up short. But, you never know....

[This message has been edited by coop87 (edited 1/11/2005 11:22a).]

those aren't assumpotions though. They're more along the lines of wishes. The fact that half of those might come true is realistic but I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you. There are a lot of guys coming back from injury that you're expecting to be 100% right away. It could happen but it's not likely.

Just a dream.

NGer-

I was just messing with you on my first comment.

SOME of those are reasonable assumptions, but no team has a run of only good luck. There will no doubt be other setbacks which aren't mentioned in your original 13 points. You always have to account for injuries, bad play, droughts, running into hot teams, and bad coaching at times.

But, just for the sake of debate, here are some reasons why I don't think those 13 cards will all fall in our favor:

1 - It has not yet been determined just how much PT Biggio gets this year.
2 - Possible, but part of his decline is father time setting in, not just the hitch and head movement.
3, 4, & 7 - None of those guys were ever considered to be offensive producers. But, as you stated, they can only go up. I just don't see them producing as much as we'll need them to.
5 & 6 - Likely.
8 & 9 - I have no idea what the current report is on Pettitte but if Oswalt can continue to use his changeup the way he did the second half of last year he could be dominant, barring any injuries which he is known for given his small frame.
10 - Possible. No one really knows for sure.
11 - Almost automatic.
12 - Unlikely, just as you mentioned. He has had too many opportunities to all of a sudden just pull it together. If I'm not mistaken, he isn't very well liked in the clubhouse either.
13 - Possible. Most of the young arms are a couple of years away but i guess that doesn't rule out the possibility of an early call up to the big leagues. I still think they have to sign two solid inning eaters for the pen.

ahahahhahhahahahahahahahaahahaha

Nice wish list. Just add "3 Beltran clones come to play the outfield" and you're set.

Let's revisit my January assumptions:

1. Biggio equals last year's production at the plate - Pretty close. Average dipped slightly

2. Bagwell increases his numbers by eliminating the hitch in his swing - Nope, shoulder surgery

3. Ensberg returns to his 2003 self and doesn't go homerless half the season - Yep! And a little extra, too.

4. Everett continues to improve offensively - Actually got worse

5. Berkman doesn't suffer a major set back when he does return - I think he did well

6. Lane finally gets a chance to play and produces like he's been expected to - Aside from his .118 AVG, 1 HR, and 4 RBI month of May, he did okay.

7. Chavez gets more time behind the plate and increases the offensive production from that position - Chavez was actually released during the season, but Ausmus batted .300 the last three months of the season.

8. Pettitte makes full recovery - I'd say so

9. Oswalt has career year - Not a career year, but a second consecutive 20-win season.

10. Backe continues to produce quality starts - Not really

11. Lidge stays lights out - Pretty much

12. (big one here) Redding has a year comparable to his stuff (Hey, it snowed in South Texas this year) - Was definitely smoking when I wrote this

13. Young arms emerge for bullpen stability (can't be any worse than Miceli) - 3.66 Bullpen ERA; 4th in NL

Things that would really help:
1. Clemens returning - $22 Million well spent

2. Quality outfield acquisition - Didn't happen, but Taveras played better than expected

3. Quality pitching acquisition(s) - Also didn't happen

Other things to consider:
1. Less presure to win - Not sure if this mattered

2. Potentially a much younger team - A lot younger team. Maybe the energy helped

3. No Jimy Williams - Still a HUGE plus

Biggest negatives:
1. Cardinals - Ran away with the Central again

2. Cubs - Do I have to say anything here?

Oh yeah. At the All-Star break:

2004: 45-46
2005: 44-43 (Through 91 games, the Astros were actually 45-46 again)

quote:

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Northgater, I think you make a lot of sense. In my opinion the biggest offensive need is production from the catcher position because Asmus is an automatic out. They need to add some speed probably from the younger guys.

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except with 2 outs in the 9th inning with your team down by 1.

Astros have to win the NLCS to outperform last year's team.. Yet to see if that happens, but you never know.