Seems to me like we could not ask for a better SR matchup, but I don't know much about them. What do we know about Oregon?

How do you know we couldn't have asked for a better match-up if you know nothing about them?

When scrolling their their results this year, it seems like they took care of their business a lot.

Had a senior right handed throw 120+ pitches in a complete game shut out last night. Makes me think they don't have the deepest of bullpens but have some reliable arms mixed in.

We definitely have a good matchup but Braden saying he has lost two series against them is a little unsettling especially considering both those teams went to Omaha.

Their 3 starters went

7 innings- 116 pitches
7 innings - 114 pitches
9 innings-128 pitches

Solid starting pitching, but they only scored 10 runs in their 3 games.

Had a good overall season. Only lost 1 series, to Stanford, on the season. Split 4 games with Oregon State (technically lost the series, backed it up winning the midweek). Just couldn't get sweeps. Have 4 guys with double digit HRs, Notably 18 from Jacob Walsh and 16 from Mason Neville. Most of their starters are .260-270 type hitters. One guy to watch is freshman Maddox Moloney who seems to really be coming on. Now hitting .333 with 10 HRs and an OPS near 1.100.

The weekend rotation goes LHP, RHP, RHP. Greyson Grinsell is their best with a 3.82 and 97K in 75 innings. All 3 go deep into games. Their #2, Kevin Seitter threw a CG shutty last night vs UCSB to advance to the Supers. They appear to have a very defined 1-2 punch out of the bullpen with LHP Bradley Mullan sporting a 1.66 ERA in 26 appearances bridging the gap to RHP Logan Mercado, their closer.

Nothing that just stands out from a stats perspective. Good, not great, stats across the board. Some power, some speed. Their starters consistently go deep so getting to the bullpen could be key. Their two main RP pieces have 26 appearances then it drops quickly to 18, 16, 13...

They field at a .977 clip.

I'm sure a team from Oregon will love the heat & humidity of CS since the weather in the NW is so similar...

I wonder if Evan Stewart is hyping to the baseball team how much everything is better in oregon

I posted this on Premium

Looking at a few individual pitchers

(ERA/WHIP/IP/H/BB/K)
Grinsell 3.82 / 1.19 / 75.1 / 48 / 42 / 97
Seiter 4.52 / 1.3 / 81.2 / 72 / 34 / 80
Gordon 4.73 / 1.37 / 91.1 / 83 / 42 / 83
Mullan 1.66 / 1.32 / 38.0 / 28 / 22 / 33

Not dominant numbers by any means. All appear to have some control issues given the high BB count. Good K numbers but the walks are a problem particularly to an offense like ours that likes to take pitches. Mullan looks to be a solid closer with an ERA of 1.66 but still a WHIP of 1.3 and control issues.

If we avoid chasing sliders in the dirt we'll be in good shape with a group that walks guys like they do.

Gotta grind on those pitchers! I'm feeling much better with Schott and Grahovac driving the ball last night

seems if we can get to their starters fairly early they could have problems. seems like a good matchup for a schloss coached team. should be competitive, oregon is a good, but not great team. if we are patient at the plate we should be in good shape.

AgCommander said:

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I'm sure a team from Oregon will love the heat & humidity of CS since the weather in the NW is so similar...

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no joke, it is going to be nasty all week and weekend. really high humidity because of the higher temps in the gulf.

Posted in another thread but probably makes more sense here as well.

Oregon's RPI is up +13 on the weekend to #39. It's their highest mark since week 2 of the season when they were #22. They were preseason #30.

They've been in and around the top 25-35 in the coaches poll most of the season. The entered the D1 poll in week 9 at 18, and spent most of the back half of the season in 22-25 range.

On paper, this is pretty lopsided. There isn't a single metric I've looked at where the Ags do not hold a significant advantage.

(Offense) Team OPS
Ags, #8, .970
UO, #90, .871

(Offense) Run differential:
Ags, #2, +4.5
UO, #44, +1.9

(Offense) Runs per game:
Ags, #18, 8.7
UO, #125, 7.0

(Defense) Team ERA:
Ags, #3, 3.82
UO, #32, 4.70

(Defense) Runs per game allowed:
Ags, #3, 4.2
UO, #25, 5.1

(Defense) Hits per game allowed:
Ags, #11, 7.6
UO, #19, 7.9

Having said all that, the regular season stats and records mean absolutely jack squat come the postseason. It's pretty tough to have a decent RPI out west these days and west coast teams tend to be underrated. They are a talented club and we'll need to come ready to play just like it's a conference weekend.

If we play to the level we are capable of, no doubt in my mind we're the much better team.

Another key metric to put the numbers into perspective...

Strength of Schedule:

• A&M - #15
• Oregon - #68

Q1/Q2 Games/Record

• A&M: 34, 21-13
• Oregon: 22, 14-8

Interestingly, while UO has a nice record against Q1 & Q2, they're only 12-9 vs. Q3.

Ags have lost 3 games at home all season. Beating A&M twice in a weekend in College Station is a tough task for any team. And A&M has shown they can beat other good teams in 1-0 games with their arms or higher scoring affairs with their bats. I have seen many people describe A&M as a 'complete' team that can win in a variety of ways.

No guarantees but Ags of course with good chance to get to Omaha

Their regular season results versus the "better" teams this year:

• W vs. OU, 4-2
• L vs. TTech, 11-7
• L vs. UCSB, 6-1
• L vs. UCSB, 7-3
• W vs. UCSB, 16-9
• W vs. Grand Canyon, 9-4
• W vs. Grand Canyon, 13-5
• W vs. Arizona, 2-1
• W vs. Arizona, 3-2
• L vs. Arizona, 15-4
• L vs. Oregon St, 2-0
• L vs. Oregon St., 4-2
• W vs. Oregon St., 7-1
• W vs. Oregon St., 9-5

Right, our numbers are better overall even versus tougher competition, at least on paper. Always a bit leery of west coast undervalue but there's no doubt we played a much harder schedule overall, even giving UO a little benefit of undervalue bump.

Their only really bad weekend was against Stanford. Series losses vs UCSB and at OSU. Decent series wins over Arizona. A good showing in Arlington on opening weekend included a win over Oklahoma.

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/schedule/Oregon

Starting pitching seems to be their strength. Hoping we can work counts and get to the bullpen.

Offense has a couple of guys that can drive the ball out of the ballpark, but nothing overly special is this era of college baseball and would be bottom half of the SEC.

We're the better team but anything can happen in baseball.

I feel confident that a pitcher from west coast climate won't be going as long in steamy College Station as they did in Pacific NW.

Im expecting a tight series. Probably similar to the Louisville 2022 super

5-4, 4-3 type of games

How quickly can we start building homeless encampments to make Oregon feel more at home?

They are the opposite of most west coast teams who manufacture runs and play small ball. They got a few guys that mash and some decent pop and averages up and down the lineup.

I think Oregon plays more like Louisiana. Here is a breakdown of their 10 runs scored in their sweep of the UCSB regional:

vs San Diego
1) Solo home run
2) Single, HBP, error on Sac bunt attempt to load the bases, followed by RBI fielder's choice
3) Immediately following the fielders choice, laid down another Sac bunt to score their 2nd run of the inning (only multi-run inning in the tournament)
4) Single followed by a RBI double both coming with 2 outs in the inning
5) Solo home run

vs UCSB (Winners bracket game)
6) Single, stolen base, RBI single
7) Double, wild pitch to advance to 3rd, RBI fielder's choice

vs UCSB (Regional Final)
8) Walk, Sac bunt, RBI single
9) Walk, wild pitch advances runner to 2nd, RBI single
10) Solo home run


There was a lot of either sac bunts or stolen base attempts after getting a single or walk. The 2 doubles and 3 solo home runs all noted above were their only extra base hits of the weekend. Lots of taking advantage of miscues and putting pressure on the defense.

They won a regional on the road vs a respected team. They're going to be tough

It is possible to have an immediate opinion that the draw is favorable just because they were a 3 seed in their regional, without knowing much else at all about them. Not a specific opinion on matchups per se tho…

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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I think Oregon plays more like Louisiana. Here is a breakdown of their 10 runs scored in their sweep of the UCSB regional:

vs San Diego
1) Solo home run
2) Single, HBP, error on Sac bunt attempt to load the bases, followed by RBI fielder's choice
3) Immediately following the fielders choice, laid down another Sac bunt to score their 2nd run of the inning (only multi-run inning in the tournament)
4) Single followed by a RBI double both coming with 2 outs in the inning
5) Solo home run

vs UCSB (Winners bracket game)
6) Single, stolen base, RBI single
7) Double, wild pitch to advance to 3rd, RBI fielder's choice

vs UCSB (Regional Final)
8) Walk, Sac bunt, RBI single
9) Walk, wild pitch advances runner to 2nd, RBI single
10) Solo home run


There was a lot of either sac bunts or stolen base attempts after getting a single or walk. The 2 doubles and 3 solo home runs all noted above were their only extra base hits of the weekend. Lots of taking advantage of miscues and putting pressure on the defense.

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Makes sense combined with their very solid starting pitching. Should be a pretty tough series.

Sean98 said:

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Had a good overall season. Only lost 1 series, to Stanford, on the season. Split 4 games with Oregon State (technically lost the series, backed it up winning the midweek). Just couldn't get sweeps. Have 4 guys with double digit HRs, Notably 18 from Jacob Walsh and 16 from Mason Neville. Most of their starters are .260-270 type hitters. One guy to watch is freshman Maddox Moloney who seems to really be coming on. Now hitting .333 with 10 HRs and an OPS near 1.100.

The weekend rotation goes LHP, RHP, RHP. Greyson Grinsell is their best with a 3.82 and 97K in 75 innings. All 3 go deep into games. Their #2, Kevin Seitter threw a CG shutty last night vs UCSB to advance to the Supers. They appear to have a very defined 1-2 punch out of the bullpen with LHP Bradley Mullan sporting a 1.66 ERA in 26 appearances bridging the gap to RHP Logan Mercado, their closer.

Nothing that just stands out from a stats perspective. Good, not great, stats across the board. Some power, some speed. Their starters consistently go deep so getting to the bullpen could be key. Their two main RP pieces have 26 appearances then it drops quickly to 18, 16, 13...

They field at a .977 clip.

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Sounds like a complete team that good, but not necessarily great. Someone you'd expect to play in the post season.

LOYAL AG said:

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I posted this on Premium

Looking at a few individual pitchers

(ERA/WHIP/IP/H/BB/K)
Grinsell 3.82 / 1.19 / 75.1 / 48 / 42 / 97
Seiter 4.52 / 1.3 / 81.2 / 72 / 34 / 80
Gordon 4.73 / 1.37 / 91.1 / 83 / 42 / 83
Mullan 1.66 / 1.32 / 38.0 / 28 / 22 / 33

Not dominant numbers by any means. All appear to have some control issues given the high BB count. Good K numbers but the walks are a problem particularly to an offense like ours that likes to take pitches. Mullan looks to be a solid closer with an ERA of 1.66 but still a WHIP of 1.3 and control issues.

If we avoid chasing sliders in the dirt

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Oh boy......

Deerdude said:

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I feel confident that a pitcher from west coast climate won't be going as long in steamy College Station as they did in Pacific NW.

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One can hope.

It's also a situation where it may be the last time they pitch this year. Probably leaving it all on the mound.

tjack16 said:

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Im expecting a tight series. Probably similar to the Louisville 2022 super

5-4, 4-3 type of games

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Maybe. Generally I expect that for all Supers. Having said that 2022 Louisville was a borderline Top8 seed and a host that year while Oregon was a three seed. Oregon had a good season but they have probably more holes than Louisville did coming in.

They pitched well this weekend in that they didn't give ups lot of runs but they did have significant command issues Friday and Saturday (7 BB and 5 BB respectively) they just got out of it. Hopefully we punish those mistakes. going in we have much better command of the strike zone than they do so hopefully that materializes. I like my chances with the first two games being Prager/Ashenbeck then Sdao/Cortez. Lots of swing and miss and not a lot of walks for those two games.

We are and should be the favorite at home but it's baseball… anything can happen.

I hope the home plate umps are more consistent than what we saw last night

rgag12 said:

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How do you know we couldn't have asked for a better match-up if you know nothing about them?

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They are a THREE seed. This means they barely got into a regional. See, every regional has 4 teams and they seed them 1-4. Typically the 4 seed just got in because they won their conference tourney. The 3 seeds are typically bubble teams that squeezed their way into a regional, but may have missed getting into a regional had a couple of games not gone their way. Dont typically see a ton of 3 seeds in SR.

Hopefully this helps you understand how this works and you can see how us drawing a 3 seed in the SR versus a 1 seed seems to be a pretty favorable matchup for us.

AggieBB said:

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rgag12 said:

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How do you know we couldn't have asked for a better match-up if you know nothing about them?

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They are a THREE seed. This means they barely got into a regional. See, every regional has 4 teams and they seed them 1-4. Typically the 4 seed just got in because they won their conference tourney. The 3 seeds are typically bubble teams that squeezed their way into a regional, but may have missed getting into a regional had a couple of games not gone their way. Dont typically see a ton of 3 seeds in SR.

Hopefully this helps you understand how this works and you can see how us drawing a 3 seed in the SR versus a 1 seed seems to be a pretty favorable matchup for us.

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There are multiple 3 seeds who could legitimately win the whole thing this year. Truth be known is a lot of 2 and 3 seeds are flip flopped bc college baseball is notorious for spreading things around geographically so teams sometimes get seeded lower when have resumes of 2 seeds

If Texas had beat us Saturday I honestly would have them as favorites to head to omaha as I think we might not have come out of losers bracket. And they were a pretty strong 3.

We've also seen multiple 3 seeds win nattys in the modern era

I'm not disagreeing with you completely but 2 vs 3 seed in a ton of cases is irrelevant when your talking strictly about how good some of these teams are

rgag12 said:

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How do you know we couldn't have asked for a better match-up if you know nothing about them?

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Because he'd know a lot more about them if they were good.

no, unfortunately you wouldn't because their conference no longer exists.

We are the more talented team and they make other teams pay for their mistakes. Keep the errors to a minimum and we should have this one