My 2012 Aggie Baseball Postmortem

1,428 Views | 12 Replies | Last: 13 yr ago by agforlife97
dabo man
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Looking back on 2012, I have a few thoughts on the program and would like to share them.

Starting pitching -
I begin with starting pitching because it's where Rob Childress has really excelled in his time here in Aggieland. I think that a lot of Aggie fans take our starting pitching for granted. Michael Wacha wasn't drafted out of high school but was the 19th overall pick in this draft. That's amazing. By the end of this season, Daniel Mangden had really developed, and we had four solid starting pitchers. Year after year we have great starting pitching, and as an Aggie who takes this for granted, I am sure that 2013 will be no different.

Relief pitching -
It's amazing that I can be so pleased with our starting pitching year after year and so unhappy with our bullpen, but that's how it is seemingly every season. I first complained late in the 2008 season that RC used too few arms from the pen too often, and that they were worn out by post-season.

This season, we had Estevan Uriegas and Kyle Martin, and for most of the season, that was it. Este is a short reliever, which compounded the problem. I am not going to pile on K-Mart. He is who he is, a hot and cold pitcher who is good probably three out of four times and brutal that fourth time. That's fine for a reliever, but not a go to guy. Things got a little better late in the season as Jason Freeman began getting regular appearances.

Maybe my memory is selective, but during the Mark Johnson/Jim Lawler era, I don't every remember having so many pitchers on the roster who never saw action. Denny Clement, Gandy Stubblefield (disappeared after a few early mid-week starts), Ross Hales, Derrick Hadley (up and down as a mid-week starter last season). Thinking back to the MJ years, I remember Derrick Adams, who pitched very little in his time here, and yet was one of my favorite players! I don't ever remember so many on one team though.

Offense -
I might be in the minority here. I am not sure, but I like a speed/small ball offense. Whitey Herzog's 80s Cardinals were a blast to watch, and Augie has won two nation titles in Austin using small ball.

Early in the season, we got runners on, stole bases, laid down good bunts, and turned singles into doubles. It seemed like everything was working. In mid-April, we lost the last game in Lawrence, went into a funk, and I don't think that our offense really ever recovered. I haven't looked at the numbers to confirm that, it's just how things "seemed to go" as the season went on. Remember that when Ross Stripling threw his no hitter, it was a 1-0 final, and I don't think that our run was even earned.

In the last part of the season, Stein, Wood, Reynolds, Bratsen, and Juengel were all cold. Alleman was cold, and then got mono and spent the post-season on the bench. When you can't get guys on base, a small ball offense is just hideous to watch. I wanted to see some experimentation with the lineup to try to maximize OBP and speed and minimize strikeouts. What we got was very little change, except that when Allemand got sick, we saw a lot of Mitchell Nau, probably the slowest guy on the team.

Here is where being an Aggie baseball fan gets frustrating. RC has nothing to do with the offense. That's Andy Sawyer's realm. Only "Saw Dog" doesn't do interviews. At least, I've never seen or read an interview with him. I was curious enough about a few things offensively last season that I sent him an email. He didn't reply. That leaves me wondering why Nau was playing so often when he, in my mind, was a bad fit for our offensive philosophy. I suspect that it's because he hits for power. I don't attend practices, so I don't know that for sure.

Defense -
Back in 2005 I read the book Moneyball. I enjoyed it, and although I am not a hard core Sabrematrician, it did change how I look at defense. In general, I believe that you put your seven best hitters on the field and find a place for them. They have a limited number chances each game, and if the difference between a good fielder and a poor fielder is 5% (50 points), then that doesn't really amount to much over the course of a season. BTW, I say "seven" best fielders, because I think that the catching position is an exception to this thinking.

Our early season defense was wretched. I am pretty sure that Matt Juengel was fielding just under .900 when he was moved from 3B to DH. (Oddly enough, when Alleman got sick, Matt played very well at 3B.) Alleman struggled at 2B, but was better at 3B. Reynolds fielded well at SS but had a number of bad throws. House was solid at 1B, as was the outfield. Stein isn't a bad defensive catcher by any means, but he is no Gonzo.

Overall, the defense was okay. I haven't looked at our final stats, but I suspect that it balanced out to look average, or maybe even above average in the end. This is an area where I wonder if we are unusually streaky. I would like to see a stat geek look up the number of 3+ error games this season for maybe all of the Big 12 and SEC. I have a hunch that we would be higher in that list than you would predict based off of our overall numbers.

Conclusion -
This team underachieved, and the season was a disappointment to me. We had most of our talent back from a tough 2011 team that scrapped in Tallahassee and made the CWS. Our starting pitching was even better than last year, when you consider the Stilson injury. We had the potential to be a national seed and return to Omaha.

Next season is going to be tough. We will be playing some of the best talent in the country in the SEC and losing a number of key players. There is one thing that I know though, we will have good starting pitching!



[This message has been edited by dabo man (edited 6/14/2012 3:04p).]
Luke The Drifter
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Not a bad summary. My two biggest complaints about 2012 were:

1. No developemnt of the bullpen.
2. Weak/untimely hitting.

I know we struggled to find a solid Tuesday starter (until Mendgen came through in May) and I know our defense wasn't all that great sometimes, but not having one single, solitary "go to" guy out of the bullpen really, really hurt. But I sort of attribute that back to the poor offense. There were plenty of Tuesday and some weekend games vs. cupcakes where the offense should have gotten us out to comfortable leads...comfortable enough to get some of the lesser used relievers some work. But the problem is, we struggled offensively in those games and RC was forced to use (possibly over-use) the more proven guys.

Some examples:

Feb. 21 vs. SFA, Ags won 4-3
Feb. 24 vs. Holy Cross, Ags won 3-2 (11 innings)
Feb. 25 vs. Holy Cross, Ags lost 7-3 (10 innings)
Feb. 28 vs. Northwestern State, Ags won 14-10 (but needed a huge comeback to win)
Mar. 14 vs. UT-Pan Am, Ags lost 5-2
Apr. 3 vs. UTSA, Ags won 4-3 (7 innings, weather shortened)
Apr. 10 vs. UT-Arlington, Ags lost 3-2
Apr. 15 vs. Kansas, Ags lost 5-3
May 6 vs. tech, Ags lost 8-4 (12 innings)
May 13 vs. San Diego State, Ags won 4-2
May 25 vs. Kansas, Ags lost 5-3 (Big 12 tourney)


You'll notice a lot of Sunday games on there. We had Pineda going on the mound and he was typically consistent, if not great. He was head-and-shoulders better than our opponent's Sunday starter. Yet for some reason, our hitters were getting shut down and mowed down like crazy, meaning we either had to (a) leave Pineda out there longer than we should or (b) fall back on the couple of "trusted" relievers to hopefully hold on for a win.

If you look back at the games vs. SFA, Holy Cross, NW State, Pan Am and UTSA, we *should* have been able to use those games to develop some players, get some non-everyday players some work, etc. Instead, we had to rely on our big guns just to eek out wins (and sometimes lose to) fairly crappy teams.

Score a few more runs vs. bad teams or bad starting pitchers and, IMO, the bullpen and season W-L total would have looked a lot better for the Ags.

For my money, the disappointment of the 2012 season falls sqarely on the shoulders of our anemic, non-clutch offense. The hitters let us down waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more often than the pitching or defense.





But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Mark Fairchild
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All of the above pretty much sums up the season. Well done Dabo and Luke. Have plans to watch as much of the CWS as possible, and see what happens. I am looking forward to seeing some much better pitching then we have seen in the past, hitting much more consistent then in the past(due to becoming accustomed to the bats), and some solid defense. Just really perplexed that the AGS aren't there.

Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
dabo man
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quote:
For my money, the disappointment of the 2012 season falls sqarely on the shoulders of our anemic, non-clutch offense. The hitters let us down waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more often than the pitching or defense.

I agree, Luke. I was just trying to cover every area.
Gone
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Agree with Luke
agforlife97
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I don't really believe in clutch hitting. Statistically it should even out.

We were just weak offensively. We K'd too much and didn't even hit for any power. If we're going to keep running a small ball offense, we need to recruit hitters with better strike zone judgment, that's all there is to it.
Luke The Drifter
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Cynic -

Can't argue with that, either. "Clutch" hitting should even out. When the dust settled, the team ended the season with a .288 batting average. But I bet if we went through and defined "clutch" at bats over the course of the season, my guess is we probably hit no better than .200 in those situations. Just a hunch...I'm not going to spend the time to do the analysis.





But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
LOYAL AG
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quote:
I don't really believe in clutch hitting. Statistically it should even out.


I absolutely do believe in clutch hitting. Some guys handle the moment well while others don't. When you see a hitter that sticks to their approach with two outs and two men on that's a guy that can be a good clutch hitter. But when you see an otherwise good hitter hacking at no strike curves in the dirt in that situation that is a guy that won't be. Both might succeed or fail in any given moment but over time the first guy will be labeled a good clutch hitter while the other one will not. The first guy is calm while the second guy is pressing. Its no different than a QB that can or can't lead a late game scoring drive. Some guys just don't have that poise.
Strike One
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I agree with Loyal Ag about the lack of clutch hitting and that it is for real. I also tend to think that beside for Wacha and Stripling (and a brief bit of Mengden at the end of the season) our pitching staff was way overrated. While guys like Freeman and C. Ray looked like they had good stuff and good form, they tended to get blasted when pitching against any type of decent hitting team as did Pineda. On the other hand, the third or fourth pitchers for other teams seemed to blow their pitches right past our anemic hitters. As fans, I think a lot of us looked at the other pitcher's high ERA's (4.75, etc.) and thought that that meant they didn't have anything and should be easy to hit. Instead, I think a lot of these guys had probably had real bad outings in the early season (when guys like Pineda were doing well against weaker competition) and had hit their stride by late season. Hopefully, RC will show his alleged pitcher development abilities to a much higher degree this coming season. Also, either drop the small ball approach or get hitters who don't take fast balls down the middle then lunge, time after time, at pitches down in the dirt and way off the plate. I'm sick of watching the Ags set a clinic in how not to approach key at bats. (Apparently, I haven't gotten over last season yet!)
W
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looking back the 3-game series defeat to Cal-Fullerton was really a microcosm on many levels of the entire 61-game season.

- Starting pitching...Wacha was fantastic in game 1. Stripling and Pineda were okay. Strip left with a 1-run deficit. Pineda left with the game tied.

- Bullpen...K-Mart did his 2 of 3 thing. Effective in games 1 and 2, but not in game 3. Took the loss. Mengden was good in both games 1 and 2, but was stretched too far in game 2 (3 innings). Lack of depth hurt. Esty was solid in the series.

- Defense...the gloves were terrible vs. CSF --> 10 errors. One atrocious play in game 2 in which 3 runs (including the batter) scored on a bloop single to left was a killer. Stein's defense and Juengel's defense contributed to the disastrous play. Their fielding woes would continue throughout the year. Some of the other defensive issues improved with personnel adjustments.

- Offense...lack of power. The Ags did not hit a HR in the series. Only had 4 x-base hits. House had 2 of them. Fullerton meanwhile had 8 x-base hits and 1 HR. The Ags stole 7 bases and sac bunted 4 times in the series. Including one sac bunt by Naquin (in the game 2 loss) that contributed to a run scoring, but limited the potential for a big inning.

- Offense...Naquin (4 of 12, 4 RBI) and House (6 for 11, 2 RBI) and not much else. Reynolds had 4 hits and got his average to .397, but fell off a cliff soon thereafter. Bratsen had a nice 2-run triple in game 1, but then the 5 thru 9 hitters did zero the rest of the series.

- Offense...clutch hitting non-existent. In game 2...Nau, Bolcerek, Statum, and Reynolds each had an 8th or 9th inning AB with the winning run on second base: 0 for 4 w/3 K's. And none of those at-bats were against CSF's star closer Lorenzen. Reynolds' K to end the 9th and bring on the rain delay to Sunday was one of the turning points of the season.

In game 3 again...Bolcerek and Statum had 8th inning AB's with the winning run on 2nd base. Neither got the ball out of the infield. Looking back...have to wonder how a true freshman and light-hitting reserve player were getting such critical late inning AB's. An indication of the depth problems on the roster. This problem continued into the regional.

- Offense...Juengel nowhere close to the hitter he was in 2010 & 2011. In the series 4 for 13, 1 RBI, and 4 K's. All 4 hits were singles and only 1 with runners on base. Juengel had 6 AB's in the series with men on base and only advanced the runners 1 out of 6 times. Very poor.

- Blue Bell Magic MIA...the crowd was ready to explode if any A&M hitter could have delivered a series winning hit in game 2 or 3, but no one could. That was the story throughout the entire 40-game home schedule + regional.

And one final note...Fullerton finished the season 36-21. Was not a great Titan team by any stretch and the Ags could not beat them. Most of the problems in the CSF series really never got fixed. At the end of the day either (1) a talent problem or (2) complacency among veteran players (or both) is to blame
sharpdressedman
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Good inputs from everyone.
quote:
This team underachieved, and the season was a disappointment
says it all.
MMantle
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Can't stand the way we don't 'value' baserunners.

Year after year we run ourselves out of way too many innings.

In home games this year at Olsen we had 55 baserunners picked off, thrown out, caught trying to take an extra base, etc.

That's a lot of lost chances, not good for a team that professes to play 'small ball'.
Happy Kuykendahl
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quote:
1. No developemnt of the bullpen.
2. Weak/untimely hitting.


And because #2 was so bad it made #1 look bad. The pen so often had little and mostly no room for error because our hitting could only muster a 1-0 or 2-1 lead after 7 innings and a stellar outing from one of our starters.
agforlife97
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If you believe in timely hitting, then you also would have to believe in untimely defense. That seemed to hurt us in regionals and at the end of the season generally.

I tend to look at it as we were only a decent offensive and defensive club in a very weak conference. We had two fantastic starters but we just couldn't overcome our other glaring deficiencies. That stats don't lie.
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