18 Days to Selection Sunday. You could watch St. John's vs UCONN tonight like a mainstream sheep, but the real sickos are grinding the bubble action.
Texas A&M Projected Seed: 9
Torvik TourneyCast odds: 98.3% (+1% from yesterday)
Current bubble status: Expanding. A few teams absolutely did not help themselves last night. An awful loss for Indiana on its home court to Northwestern brings them back into the fray. Auburn loses a game that isn't very competitive which almost drags them back into the true bubble mix too. New Mexico drops a game to Nevada which hurts their chances. Missouri does themselves a big favor to get out of this group and TCU stays afloat.
True bubble (teams that right now could go either way):
Texas
Ohio State
Santa Clara
TCU
--- cut off ---
Indiana
USC
VCU
Games of the day (that matter for us): (projected seed), team we're for in bold
(9) Texas A&M at (5) Arkansas - 8 PM - ESPN2 - Putting this here because people will point it out if I don't. Everyone knows the stakes here. Potential trajectory-altering win here, very little downside for a loss, especially if it's close.
(3) Florida at (10) Texas - 6 PM - ESPN2 - Our most plausible path to safety involves beating the Longhorns again, and since we play them twice and Florida only once they might as well win this game. Flip side is if Texas get smoked here they're going to be real trouble and will likely need to AT LEAST beat us or Arkansas (also away) along with beating Oklahoma again.
(9) Georgia at (5) Vanderbilt - 6 PM - SEC Network - Vandy is more likely to be in competition with us for SEC Tournament seeding, Georgia is more likely to be up against us on the bubble, so who you're for here depends on how you're looking at our last four games.
Butler at (7) Villanova - 6 PM - FS1- Nova is unlikely to fall back to the bubble, but is catchable on the seed list. They'll likely win this one fairly easily, but also thought that about Indiana vs Northwestern last night. If they drop this one and get blown out by St. John's they'll slide much closer to us without much chance to pick up anything else of value.
(B - right on the edge) Ohio State at (8) Iowa - 8 PM - BTN - This game is going on at the same time as ours so if we win then you can immediately switch and be for Ohio State for seeding purposes. But Ohio State probably needs to win either this game of their home game against Purdue on Sunday along with beating Penn State and Indiana to close the season or they're going to be really sweating it out.
(8) SMU at Cal - 9 PM - ACC Network - SMU is probably safe, but they're in a situation where the best they can really do is tread water and hope the bubble doesn't come up to get them. They're definitely catchable on the seed list. Cal is not quite dead if they win out, but we'll worry about that later.
(11) Santa Clara at (9) St. Mary's - 10 PM - CBSSN - This game is after ours, so switch sides if we win because we can vault past St. Mary's. But for now we're keeping with the main idea that our goal is to just make the tournament, and for that, we'd like to eliminate Santa Clara from at-large consideration. This would be a roughly .7 WAB game for them, and if they don't get they're probably toast barring beating Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament and even that might not be enough. They'd need the bubble to stay incredibly soft.
(6) Wisconsin at Oregon - 10 PM - BTN - Probably doesn't matter but if you're up late anyway, could keep Wisconsin within striking distance.
(8) Utah State at (B - out) San Diego State - 10 PM - FS1 - BUBBLE GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE DAY -
This is another one where you can change sides if we win to try and drag Utah State below us. SDSU has a tough road to the right side of the bubble anyway, but they might as well lose this game and be more or less eliminated. They have WAB opportunity road games at New Mexico and Boise left, so if they win this one, there's a path for them.
Texas A&M Projected Seed: 9
Torvik TourneyCast odds: 98.3% (+1% from yesterday)
Current bubble status: Expanding. A few teams absolutely did not help themselves last night. An awful loss for Indiana on its home court to Northwestern brings them back into the fray. Auburn loses a game that isn't very competitive which almost drags them back into the true bubble mix too. New Mexico drops a game to Nevada which hurts their chances. Missouri does themselves a big favor to get out of this group and TCU stays afloat.
True bubble (teams that right now could go either way):
Texas
Ohio State
Santa Clara
TCU
--- cut off ---
Indiana
USC
VCU
Games of the day (that matter for us): (projected seed), team we're for in bold
(9) Texas A&M at (5) Arkansas - 8 PM - ESPN2 - Putting this here because people will point it out if I don't. Everyone knows the stakes here. Potential trajectory-altering win here, very little downside for a loss, especially if it's close.
(3) Florida at (10) Texas - 6 PM - ESPN2 - Our most plausible path to safety involves beating the Longhorns again, and since we play them twice and Florida only once they might as well win this game. Flip side is if Texas get smoked here they're going to be real trouble and will likely need to AT LEAST beat us or Arkansas (also away) along with beating Oklahoma again.
(9) Georgia at (5) Vanderbilt - 6 PM - SEC Network - Vandy is more likely to be in competition with us for SEC Tournament seeding, Georgia is more likely to be up against us on the bubble, so who you're for here depends on how you're looking at our last four games.
Butler at (7) Villanova - 6 PM - FS1- Nova is unlikely to fall back to the bubble, but is catchable on the seed list. They'll likely win this one fairly easily, but also thought that about Indiana vs Northwestern last night. If they drop this one and get blown out by St. John's they'll slide much closer to us without much chance to pick up anything else of value.
(B - right on the edge) Ohio State at (8) Iowa - 8 PM - BTN - This game is going on at the same time as ours so if we win then you can immediately switch and be for Ohio State for seeding purposes. But Ohio State probably needs to win either this game of their home game against Purdue on Sunday along with beating Penn State and Indiana to close the season or they're going to be really sweating it out.
(8) SMU at Cal - 9 PM - ACC Network - SMU is probably safe, but they're in a situation where the best they can really do is tread water and hope the bubble doesn't come up to get them. They're definitely catchable on the seed list. Cal is not quite dead if they win out, but we'll worry about that later.
(11) Santa Clara at (9) St. Mary's - 10 PM - CBSSN - This game is after ours, so switch sides if we win because we can vault past St. Mary's. But for now we're keeping with the main idea that our goal is to just make the tournament, and for that, we'd like to eliminate Santa Clara from at-large consideration. This would be a roughly .7 WAB game for them, and if they don't get they're probably toast barring beating Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament and even that might not be enough. They'd need the bubble to stay incredibly soft.
(6) Wisconsin at Oregon - 10 PM - BTN - Probably doesn't matter but if you're up late anyway, could keep Wisconsin within striking distance.
(8) Utah State at (B - out) San Diego State - 10 PM - FS1 - BUBBLE GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE DAY -
This is another one where you can change sides if we win to try and drag Utah State below us. SDSU has a tough road to the right side of the bubble anyway, but they might as well lose this game and be more or less eliminated. They have WAB opportunity road games at New Mexico and Boise left, so if they win this one, there's a path for them.