How can the Ags win the NCAAT

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GrayMatter
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5:51p, 2/4/25
AG
doing a bit of dx/dy because I'm curious of everyone's thoughts...

What improvements can we make to win the whole darn thing?

Let's take a step back and look at our remaining schedule:
  • @Missouri
  • Georgia
  • Arkansas
  • @MIss St
  • Tenn
  • Vandy
  • @Florida
  • Auburn
  • @LSU
If we handle our business at home, it is not out of the realm of possibility that we can beat Auburn and Tennessee at Reed and even if we lose to Florida and maybe Missouri, will that make you a believer that we can win it all?

Probably a far fledged thought, so here's a few more nuggets of info:
  • KenPom Defensive Rating - 7
  • KenPom Offensive Rating - 33
  • KenPom Net Rating - 14
  • Strength of Schedule - 5
  • Quad 1 games 12 - Wins - 7
  • Neutral record - 4-1
A few more stats (only because my google skills suck):
NCAAT Champs
Offensive Efficiency
  • 2020-2021 - Baylor - 3
  • 2018-2019 - Virginia - 8
  • 2017-2018 - Villanova - 2
  • 2016-2017 - North Carolina - 9
  • 2015-2016 - Villanova - 8
  • 2014-2015 - Duke - 1
  • 2013-2014 - UCONN - 53
  • 2012-2013 - Louisville - 21
  • 2011-2012 - Kentucky - 8
Defensive Efficiency
  • 2020-2021 - Baylor - 9
  • 2018-2019 - Virginia - 5
  • 2017-2018 - Villanova - 25
  • 2016-2017 - North Carolina - 10
  • 2015-2016 - Villanova - 10
  • 2014-2015 - Duke - 16
  • 2013-2014 - UCONN - 39
  • 2012-2013 - Louisville - 1
  • 2011-2012 - Kentucky - 2
4 (Solo only played 5 mins against Oregon) out of our 5 games that we have lost, one of our key players didn't play and that one loss was a one point loss at tu.

If we are at full strength and given what we know about how Buzz's teams perform late in the season, is it really that preposterous of a question?
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Method Man
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5:52p, 2/4/25
They can't.
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frenchtoast
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5:59p, 2/4/25
Not with that attitude.
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Method Man
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In reply to frenchtoast • 6:16p, 2/4/25
frenchtoast said:
Not with that attitude.


Not with the best attitude. They can beat anyone though. I'm convinced of that.
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bobinator
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6:24p, 2/4/25
AG
We just need to keep finding wrinkles to get us some easy shots at the basket. We know we can't shoot but we also don't need to make every shot as hard as possible.

Get a couple extra baskets a game by getting Payne and Coleman working and knock down a few open threes and who knows what could happen.
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TjgtAg08
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In reply to GrayMatter • 6:30p, 2/4/25
AG
32 in offensive efficiency on KenPom, not 42. Still probably not quite good enough though.
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cs69ag
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6:55p, 2/4/25
AG
You go 2-0 for 3 weekends in a row!
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TheDecadeSapling
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8:20p, 2/4/25
AG
We can compete with anybody. But we can't have long stretches of not scoring. We need to use our brains on offense.
Give me the guy who shoots for excellence and fails over the guy who shoots for mediocrity and succeeds.
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billydean05
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8:24p, 2/4/25
Our defense is championship caliber. We have to be much more consistent on the offensive end of the court. We can go on long stretches where we can't find the bottom of the net.
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amercer
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8:36p, 2/4/25
AG
Shoot 60% from three in the tournament, and we are champs
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An L of an Ag
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9:06p, 2/4/25
AG
Honestly? Realistic officiating and 80% FT shooting gets us at least to the Final Four.
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halfastros81
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7:56a, 2/5/25
AG
Every contributor needs to be healthy and we need Wade Taylor IV to be absolutely red hot. Otherwise we just aren't good enough offensively to survive the gauntlet.

Just watching 2 games last night ( Auburn and Tech) I was thinking the only way we can hang is with a red hot iV. As good as we are defensively those teams , especially Auburn have so many weapons and are so well coached.
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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In reply to halfastros81 • 9:10a, 2/5/25
halfastros81 said:
Every contributor needs to be healthy and we need Wade Taylor IV to be absolutely red hot. Otherwise we just aren't good enough offensively to survive the gauntlet.

Just watching 2 games last night ( Auburn and Tech) I was thinking the only way we can hang is with a red hot iV. As good as we are defensively those teams , especially Auburn have so many weapons and are so well coached.


we beat texas tech but i would agree with the auburn statement. they are really good.
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Pumpkinhead
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9:33a, 2/5/25
AG
Auburn is one of the best teams in the last several years, not just this year. Prohibitive favorite obviously to win it all. Aggies are not on the same level as Auburn, but only 2-3 other teams in the country could maybe argue that they are.
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halfastros81
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In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 9:46a, 2/5/25
AG
We beat Tech without their top scorer.
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bobinator
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 9:46a, 2/5/25
AG
I actually kind of think the key isn't at much Taylor being red hot as it is just everyone else not being completely ice cold several games in a row. Taylor can't shoot 70% from 3 for several games in a row, it's just not gonna happen, but it would be nice if the rest of the team could just kind of rotate having decent-to-good games.

The other big key for us, and something to really watch over this last month of the season, is how committed are we to getting Payne the ball. I thought that was a big change in the South Carolina game. When the offense started to stagnate, we just fed him the ball, and it worked. I think he either scored or assisted like five straight buckets. Can we do that against a high level team?

Just having SOMETHING that's our "when in doubt, do this" on offense that isn't Taylor or Phelps driving would make a huge difference in the forecast for this team.
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greg.w.h
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In reply to cs69ag • 9:48a, 2/5/25
AG
cs69ag said:
You go 2-0 for 3 weekends in a row!
Yes…but how?
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 9:49a, 2/5/25
AG
Even more than his scoring is his rebounding.
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cs69ag
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10:05a, 2/5/25
AG
^ how....the usual.....rebound. hit free throws. low turnovers and healthy team!
add in balanced scoring!
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ExtremeRush
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10:58a, 2/5/25
AG
Auburn is legit. But they aren't unbeatable. They beat Texas by 5, S Carolina (without top player) by 3, Georgia by 2, and Tenn by 2. One of those four is a very good team.

If we end up in a different region than Auburn, there's a chance someone knocks them out before the final 4 and we don't even have to play them.

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GrayMatter
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In reply to Method Man • 11:06a, 2/5/25
AG
Method Man said:
frenchtoast said:
Not with that attitude.
Not with the best attitude. They can beat anyone though. I'm convinced of that.
This is what led me to my thought and post. I said at some point that in order for us to get to the Elite 8 and beyond, we'd have to be more consistent in how we play.

That hasn't changed, but I'm more confident this year than perhaps maybe the BCG days where I can feel like we can play with anyone.

The key is to be consistent for 40 minutes and then string a few consecutive games with the same output.

I'm pretty sure Buzz knows this, but the only thing holding us back from going far is us.
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bobinator
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In reply to GrayMatter • 11:28a, 2/5/25
AG
The only teams that truly worry me from a style standpoint are the pace teams because it's hard to slow down teams that are really committed to playing fast. And the more possessions a game has, the more it's going to stress our offense.

Three teams that kind of fit that bill are Alabama, Illinois and New Mexico (if they get in.)
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NyAggie
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In reply to bobinator • 11:38a, 2/5/25
AG
bobinator said:
The only teams that truly worry me from a style standpoint are the pace teams because it's hard to slow down teams that are really committed to playing fast. And the more possessions a game has, the more it's going to stress our offense.

Three teams that kind of fit that bill are Alabama, Illinois and New Mexico (if they get in.)


And yet if we make free throws at our normal clip we beat bama without Wade Taylor

But I do agree that that style is more problematic for us and causes us to have to play better than our normal offensively unless we can somehow force our style onto them more than they force theirs onto us
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bobinator
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In reply to NyAggie • 12:20p, 2/5/25
AG
Not quite, we'd have had to shoot slightly above our season average to make up 6 points. Of course you could also say that if Payne shoots his normal percentage we lose by even more since he shot 15 of the free throws and made 11 of them.

But Wade or not, almost beating them at home is a completely different animal. I think we can beat anybody at home.

Like I expect the line even for Auburn to only be 5-6 points at Reed.
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AggByMarriage
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12:32p, 2/5/25
"How can the Ags win the NCAAT?"

Simple, just win the last game of the season.
Wait?! Is this a trick question?
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NyAggie
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In reply to bobinator • 1:25p, 2/5/25
AG
bobinator said:
Not quite, we'd have had to shoot slightly above our season average to make up 6 points. Of course you could also say that if Payne shoots his normal percentage we lose by even more since he shot 15 of the free throws and made 11 of them.

But Wade or not, almost beating them at home is a completely different animal. I think we can beat anybody at home.

Like I expect the line even for Auburn to only be 5-6 points at Reed.


I agree, and it's why I think we get st least one of the Tennessee/Auburn games

Hopefully we can at least split mizxou/miss st on the road as well

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halfastros81
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2:02p, 2/5/25
AG
A large Part of my premise on Taylor being hot is it stretches the defense and opens up things inside. In theory the offense should be more efficient and shooting % goes up and also potentially draw more fouls .

He doesn't have to be hot for 6 games either. If we get a high enough seed we could win the first few games with our regular game but in certain matchups I think he has to be really effective for us to win.

I'm not saying he needs to score 25-30 ppg, but the opponents fear that he could based on a hot start would yield an overall positive impact .
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GrayMatter
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In reply to halfastros81 • 3:48p, 2/5/25
AG
halfastros81 said:
A large Part of my premise on Taylor being hot is it stretches the defense and opens up things inside. In theory the offense should be more efficient and shooting % goes up and also potentially draw more fouls .

He doesn't have to be hot for 6 games either. If we get a high enough seed we could win the first few games with our regular game but in certain matchups I think he has to be really effective for us to win.

I'm not saying he needs to score 25-30 ppg, but the opponents fear that he could based on a hot start would yield an overall positive impact .
So if Wade gets hot, does that hamper Phelp's or Manny's driving game?

Or is it a matter of ensuring that they are on the weakside for the skip pass?
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 4:03p, 2/5/25
AG
Yeah I mean there's no question he has to be effective for us to go far. Our whole offense is a house of cards built mostly around him. I just don't think he has to be all that "hot." He just has to be effective.

I'd actually probably argue that if I got to pick one player to be unusually hot for the march madness run that it would be Phelps. When Phelps can shoot, at all, we're extremely hard to beat.
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AggieTrainer
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12:26a, 2/6/25
I'm not basketball-savvy enough to chime in, but I will anyway. If all the guards come to realize they have 4 other guys they can distribute the ball to, that would probably be a bit more effective than going kamikaze to the basket and praying for the best. That, and I'd like to see Payne a few feet closer to the basket when he gets an entry pass.
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cs69ag
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5:53a, 2/6/25
AG
Auburn was good last year too....and lost to Yale in the tournament!
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Frank Grimes
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 7:52a, 2/6/25
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Auburn is one of the best teams in the last several years, not just this year. Prohibitive favorite obviously to win it all. Aggies are not on the same level as Auburn, but only 2-3 other teams in the country could maybe argue that they are.
Prohibitive favorite? They lost to Duke, and Duke is on fire. While the ACC is down, Duke is making it a cake walk.
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halfastros81
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In reply to GrayMatter • 9:39a, 2/6/25
AG
I think Phelps isolation /driving game could still be part of a winning formula if the defense is stretched . There's a chance he passes the ball if he doesn't have an open look at the rim. I'd argue Manny's iso game should only be a part of the offense in very specific circumstances because he's pretty much guaranteed to either shoot the ball or turn it over .
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 9:58a, 2/6/25
AG
Phelps just needs to be better about actually putting the ball in the basket when he gets to the rim. He's good at doing the hard part in getting there, he just needs to finish at a higher rate than he has lately.

He's 5/20 on shots at the rim in our last four games. He's a bad three point shooter but right now the expected value of his three point shots is higher than his rim shots. Although he has been getting fouled a lot.
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halfastros81
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In reply to bobinator • 10:05a, 2/6/25
AG
I suppose we should discuss what red hot means . If Wade is shooting 40% or better from the field and getting and making open 3 looks the defense has to pay extra attention to him. I'd argue Phelps shouldn't even attempt 3's for the most part at 28% from 3 land. Statistically speaking only Taylor , Hefner, Wilcher and maybe Manny should shoot 3's in normal game flow.

I feel like Phelps trouble finishing at the rim is an anomaly that will self correct and as you point out he gets to the line regularly when he attacks as well.
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