Let's talk the Tide. Unlike Oklahoma, Alabama is definitely a contender, but how good do we think this team really is? Can they compete with Auburn (and whoever else) for the SEC title?

What's interesting to me is their playing style. I think in the metrics era of college basketball you've seen some programs run to the extremes of playing style. We've obviously built our style around the assumption that we don't have elite skill.

Alabama is the opposite, they've built their style on the idea that if they can get enough possessions in the game, their skill level will overtake yours.

A few things jump out to me about this team statistically:

- From a statistical profile standpoint they're similar to Oklahoma (though obviously better), especially defensively, though they're better on the defensive glass and defending at the rim. Like OU, they defend the perimeter really well.

- They are FAST and the only team that's really slowed them down is Purdue. They're the #3 tempo team in the country.

- They are crazy deep. This will be a team that I'm surprised if we can wear them down like we have some of the others.

- Some shifts in their offensive profile, especially compared to last year. They don't shoot the three nearly as well, but they still shoot an absolute ton of them.

- Elite around the basket. They spread the floor with their shooting which isolates your defenders and gives them an edge on the offensive rebounds for easy putbacks and scores. They're top 20 in OR% and #2 in 2pt%, two stats that I'm sure are related.

- They do not cause turnovers. They're are in the 300's in defensive turnover percentage.

So how do we win?

- Without Taylor, it's hard for me to find a path to victory here that doesn't include a phrase like "If (player other than Phelps) has a career day and Phelps has another great game...". It's basketball so there's always that chance that someone has a one shining moment game and we pull this off.

- Barring that, we absolutely have to slow this game down. The last two times we've played them they've controlled the game flow and if they do that again, they'll bury us again.

To answer my own question, I like this Alabama team a lot. They took a little time to get going this season but I think they're national championship good. Will be interesting to see them against Auburn because I think this is an Alabama team that's going to keep getting better and they don't play Auburn for the first time for another month.

They close with @Tennessee/Florida/@Auburn so if they start clicking late I think this is a team that could go into the tournament as the overall #1.

They must be good for their coach to keep wearing those clown jackets.

Do we have a line yet?

When Alabama is shooting the ball like this, no one will beat the Crimson Tide.

No. One.

This team has the highest ceiling in the country.

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) January 9, 2025

They are final four good, don't think they will win the national championship.

Their defense is not good enough, 37th on Kenpom, that is the worse rating of the top ten teams. If the offense is off, they don't have the defense to carry them.

Their defense is a lot better than it was last year though. They were #111 in defense last year and played UCONN about as well as anyone did when they met in the Final Four.

Considering their offensive style and pace I think #37 is plenty good enough for them defensively.

I wonder how we handle Wade's injury as it pertains to these upcoming games. Obviously if he's not cleared he won't play, but if it's a situation of "well, he could play tomorrow night and give 15-20 min or he could rest and be full go for next week," would we consider playing him tomorrow and then resting him all of next week?

The @UK game is probably not as important as the Bama home game, and we probably don't need him at home against LSU next weekend … but to get him for even 15 min against Bama could make the difference in holding serve at home, which would be huge.

Will be interesting to watch.

Fun fact:

The most an Alabama basketball team has scored since 1992 in College Station is 66 points.

Let's hope that trend continues because if Bama is held to 66 or less that would more likely mean the Ags won.

It's just hard to speculate at all because we have no idea what's going on there. The good news is we've already banked some good wins so it's not like a level one emergency to get him back like it would have been in say the 2023 season.

Let's say he sits two whole weeks and we lose all of the games he doesn't play, well that's not good, but it doesn't end our season at all. Plus as long as he comes back and looks good the committee will give us a break on those games.

Anything can happen in the tournament so metrics sometimes aren't the best predicters for how the game will go.

I think they're about as deep as we are and you're right in saying that they put a lot of pressure on defenses because of the amount of possessions they get each game.

From Kenpom: They are #3 in offense, we're #12 in defense. They're #37 in defense, we're #27 in offense.

However, they've had a tougher schedule than us, but we are playing at Reed which gives us a fighting chance.

2 years ago they were #2 team in the nation (featuring Brandon Miller) and we were able to beat them by taking advantage of their turnovers and converting at the free throw line. We went an astounding 27-28 at the free throw line with Wade/Boots/Dexter going 26-26. Of course, they did throttle us in the SECT final, but we did take one from them that year.

It's not gonna be easy, but it is doable. I honestly think it's one of those coach speak things that if we take care of what we do best, that is certainly a path to victory. We won't be able to outscore them that's for sure; we're gonna have to play ball control.

I think OU, Alabama, and Kentucky all play very similar ball - relying on the three point shot. OU gives us the roadmap for how to play against Kentucky, who I think we beat because of how one dimensional they are, - but Alabama can play inside too (unlike Kentucky).

To win we need a solid A&M game from the start where our defense doesn't let us get down by double digits, get our guys to the free throw line and make the shots, and put a couple of their guys in early foul trouble. Really hoping to see a low scoring game because the likeliness of us winning a game in the mid 80s to 90s seems very low.

Vandy also and to some extent Florida though their defense is better. Those are the SEC teams that want to play pretty basketball. Texas probably should commit a little more to playing like that but they haven't for whatever reason, they're a pretty team trying to play ugly basketball and they're bad at it.

No one out uglies BUzzball! It's Butt Ugly!

They surprisingly only shoot .321% from three, just barely ahead of us and shoot free throws under 70%!

Let's force them into bad shots and slow them game down here at home! They also haven't won in College Station since 2015!

Rebounding their misses is gonna be what makes or breaks this deal. They spread you out and fire away fast. You have to come out and guard them or they'll make a better percentage but then that opens you up to their offensive boards and easy putbacks.

If it's not clear I absolutely hate this matchup for us and how we play. I think we're more likely to beat Auburn than we are Alabama.

But that said it's basketball so who knows. Maybe Wade plays and we can score enough or someone unexpected just goes nuclear.

Agree we have to slow the game down or risk getting run out of the gym. Combined scoring over 160 or so in regulation will not bode well for us imo. The way to possibly do that is be selective on shots taken, draw fouls, hit free throws , play lights out defense , be + 5 or better on turnovers . Will have to win the points in paint battle as well. If we just attack the rim relentlessly like we have been i suspect we'll get a ton of shots blocked . Need some head fakes and post moves . If someone has a clear open road to the basket that's one thing but passing or driving the hoop with defenders in good position won't go well imo.

Tall order without Wade if he's unavailable to spread things out I'm afraid but get a great game from Phelps, Hefner , Carter, Manny , or Wilcher then not impossible if they play great on both ends.

I thought they were better last year when I watch them

Most everything has been pointed out; talented, deep, fast tempo, very balanced scoring…. They sound like a top 5 team because they are.

My first concern is the post dramatic-win hangover for the Aggies. Aggies have to keep their head in the game for 40 minutes.

My second concern is Wade's physical condition. Hope he plays within himself and doesn't get hurt worse.

Maybe it comes down to how Wade and Zuric play?
Maybe it comes down to how Garcia, Coleman, and Payne play?

The thing I loved about the OU game was I never saw the guys give up. Never lose heart.

ABM

Are we sure 4 is out or is it game time decision?

NM. Just saw GoBs thread below

Pumpkinhead said:

---

Fun fact:

The most an Alabama basketball team has scored since 1992 in College Station is 66 points.

Let's hope that trend continues because if Bama is held to 66 or less that would more likely mean the Ags won.

---

In the Feb. 5, 1992 game at G. Rollie, A&M hosted #18 Alabama. I remember knowing James Robinson, Latrell Sprewell and Robert Horry, but Horry wasn't as well known. I remember Sprewell as bouncy.

Aggie Freshman Tony McGinnis went up for a tomahawk jam and Horry came from nowhere to pin it to glass in one of the most athletic basketball plays I've ever witnessed. It's hard to find the box score from that game.

Our chances would be way better with Wade. Without him I think it's unlikely that we win, but buzzball at least gives you a chance

NyAggie said:

---

Our chances would be way better with Wade. Without him I think it's unlikely that we win, but buzzball at least gives you a chance

---

That's Wade at 100%. Otherwise, he a distraction and will make us inconsistent.

All or none.

Purdue beat them, and we beat Purdue.

Oregon beat both of us. Us by 10, them by 2.

This will be a close game.

They are the worst defensive team in the SEC, and 2nd to worst FT shooting team in the SEC. If we get them to play our style, we have a good chance.

Good enough to allow us to beat ourselves which is precisely what happened tonight.

After watching the game, I believe Bama is a legit Final Four team. They have NBA starters at every position. They have a good coach. They will go deep into the tournament.

Still think they were better last year. Last night didn't change my mind (still a contender though obviously)

I think we are just as good when healthy

EXCELL said:

---

Good enough to allow us to beat ourselves which is precisely what happened tonight.

---

Unfortunately you are correct.

Wanted to circle back to say I was extremely impressed with Alabama in person. They might prefer to play pretty basketball but they definitely weren't afraid to scrap either.

Won't be surprised if a month or so from now we're looking at them as a top 3 team.

Hell, could be a week from now.

I don't mean just in the polls, but in the metrics also. They look like a team that's just starting to figure out how to play together.

They definitely pass the eye test; they can play with anyone. They're versatile and athletic and they have really good guards. They're definitely a top 5 team right now, but the season grind is gonna be the tale tell of post season predictions.

GrayMatter said:

---

Anything can happen in the tournament so metrics sometimes aren't the best predicters for how the game will go.

I think they're about as deep as we are and you're right in saying that they put a lot of pressure on defenses because of the amount of possessions they get each game.

From Kenpom: They are #3 in offense, we're #12 in defense. They're #37 in defense, we're #27 in offense.

However, they've had a tougher schedule than us, but we are playing at Reed which gives us a fighting chance.

2 years ago they were #2 team in the nation (featuring Brandon Miller) and we were able to beat them by taking advantage of their turnovers and converting at the free throw line. We went an astounding 27-28 at the free throw line with Wade/Boots/Dexter going 26-26. Of course, they did throttle us in the SECT final, but we did take one from them that year.

It's not gonna be easy, but it is doable. I honestly think it's one of those coach speak things that if we take care of what we do best, that is certainly a path to victory. We won't be able to outscore them that's for sure; we're gonna have to play ball control.

---

What an excellent thread. Everybody made great points and most were prescient in predicting what could happen and what did happen - but this particular post (username definitely checks out) describing how we beat them on our home court in the past talked about how we hit 27 out of 28 free throws in that win.

Obviously, had we done anything close to achieving a FT% like that - especially with the number of free throws that we got - we would've won - although the game flow, including what kind of shots they would have attempted in the end would've been different had we been consistently ahead due to to success in or foul shooting.

I also recall the pregrame Buzz interview where he predicted the winner of the Bama game would be the team that rebounded the best... and HE WAS RIGHT.

Let's get back to WINNING the rebound contest and hit at least 75% of our free throws tomorrow night while dominating the paint!

BTHO Kentucky!