Forecasting SEC's college hoops standings for 2016-17

3,317 Views | 31 Replies | Last: 9 yr ago by wacarnolds
mikesyracuse1
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/15682754/projecting-sec-standings-2016-2017-men-college-basketball


From the article./
Going into last season, everyone thought the SEC belonged to Kentucky. Instead, the Wildcats ended up sharing the regular-season title with Texas A&M -- although the Aggies received the top seed in the conference tournament by way of winning the only regular-season meeting. And the last SEC team standing in the NCAA tournament was, you guessed it, the Aggies (the league earned only three bids: UK, A&M and Vanderbilt).

1. UK

2. Texas A&M Aggies
Billy Kennedy lost four starters from a team that reached the Sweet 16, but Tyler Davis has the potential to earn SEC Player of the Year honors as a sophomore. Though Davis had occasional issues with foul trouble in 2015-16, the 6-10 freshman excelled in the Aggies' season-ending loss to Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament: 7-of-8 from the field, eight rebounds and three blocks in just 27 minutes.
But Davis won't have to face the SEC as a one-man team. Admon Gilder, DJ Hogg and Tonny Trocha-Morelos all averaged better than 18 minutes per game last season, and incoming freshman Robert Williams is a top-50 recruit. That said, the onus will be on this younger group of Aggies to duplicate what Alex Caruso and last season's seniors were able to accomplish on defense, particularly with regard to takeaways. That will be no small task, but it's conceivable that any slippage on D could be offset in part or even entirely by Davis' maturation on offense.
3. Florida
4. Vandy
5. Georgia
6. Bama
7. Arkansas
8.LSU
9. USC
10. ole Miss
11. MSU
12. Tenn
13. Auburn
14. Missouri

mikesyracuse1
mdanyc03
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That is pretty much exactly what I would write about this team in two paragraphs
agfan1030
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CypressAg09
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They have Mississippi St much lower than I would have figured considering their last and current recruiting classes. I also think LSU is way too high.
txagssweetie2014
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I would be ecstatic with 2nd in the SEC!!
Pumpkinhead
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If Bruce Pearl does actually finish 13th in the SEC conference at the end in his third year, would it be time to start describing his progress there as a disappointment?
wacarnolds
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quote:
If Bruce Pearl does actually finish 13th in the SEC conference at the end in his third year, would it be time to start describing his progress there as a disappointment?
Without a doubt.
eb93
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I think two is a little high next year and talking up tyler davis for player of the year is a year too soon. We have the pieces, but will be young and will lose some road games to less talented teams. That being said, not sire who is clearly better besides Kentucky. These rankings disrespect Frank Martin and Ben Howland. And I think Tennesse will be better in Barnes' second year.
letters at random
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That's a little too optimistic, though I am hoping for top 4.
citizenkane06
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That's exactly where I would have us. The rest of the SEC seems like it could go anywhere.
mdanyc03
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quote:
That's a little too optimistic, though I am hoping for top 4.


Let's see you make a case for why anybody else besides Kentucky should be picked ahead of us.
Method Man
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quote:
If Bruce Pearl does actually finish 13th in the SEC conference at the end in his third year, would it be time to start describing his progress there as a disappointment?


Yes but he needs five years to be sure.
gphid97
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quote:
quote:
That's a little too optimistic, though I am hoping for top 4.


Let's see you make a case for why anybody else besides Kentucky should be picked ahead of us.
You can't. This league is just that bad. Flat out putrid.
letters at random
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quote:
quote:
That's a little too optimistic, though I am hoping for top 4.


Let's see you make a case for why anybody else besides Kentucky should be picked ahead of us.


I don't follow the other teams in the league closely enough to give you a great answer, but USC and Vandy both finished within two games of us last year, and I doubt they lost 4 senior starters. Arkansas was young and better than I thought they would be. UGA and Ole Miss were only three games behind us, and they also probably didn't lose 4 senior starters.
phorizt
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quote:
quote:
quote:
That's a little too optimistic, though I am hoping for top 4.


Let's see you make a case for why anybody else besides Kentucky should be picked ahead of us.


I don't follow the other teams in the league closely enough to give you a great answer, but USC and Vandy both finished within two games of us last year, and I doubt they lost 4 senior starters. Arkansas was young and better than I thought they would be. UGA and Ole Miss were only three games behind us, and they also probably didn't lose 4 senior starters.

USC lost 3 senior starters which were their top 3 front court players including their best player. They'll have a good backcourt if Dozier lives up to his hype which can take you a long way in college basketball.

UGA lost 2 senior starters but we beat them by like 70 last year. They do return one of the top combo of players in Frazier and Maten in the conference next year. They have no depth and they don't recruit very well though. And they're kind of small. Only 2 returning players who averaged more than 4 points per game on their entire roster.

Ole Miss loses 3 senior starters including Moody who averaged more than twice as many points as anyone else on their team. They add Cullen Neal but they don't have any studs on the roster. They'll be middle of the pack again in the Sec like they are every year.

Vandy lost by far their best 2 players to the NBA draft. and they lost their coach. No star power left on their roster but have a couple of guys who are good shooters and a pretty good big man. Should be a solid club.

Arkansas brings back their 2 top players in Hannahs and Kingsley but lost several senior starters and the most talented freshman decided to transfer.


So yeah most of these teams actually did lose a lot and they weren't as talented or deep as us and they aren't adding as much talent as us through recruiting.

Arkansas and UGA have a couple of nice pieces but they don't have much else. At least Ark is bringing in a bunch of highly rated juco guys.

I think Florida has the best chance to make some noise this year. They bring back more talented pieces and depth than anyone else and added maybe the top transfer in the country this year in Canyon Barry. Coaching is the big question mark with them as most believe they underachieved last year under Coach White.
coloradoag69
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Phoritz has a pretty fair summary of every SEC team's stance going into the season - at least at this point. It sounds like most teams - except UK - are going to be a bit short compared to last year. With respect to the rest of the NCAA teams, no one except us made it to the third round, the SEC had only 4 teams in the tournament, and one of those was a play-in game.

So nationally it doesn't sound like the SEC is going to be very well thought of as a league. We better be at least third or fourth if we want an NCAA berth.
miller0926
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Great summary.

As another poster already said above, add State as a sleeper with their top 10 recruiting class and year 2 under Howland.
miller0926
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It was actually only 2 + Vandy in the play-in game. South Carolina didn't get in
TMartin
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Nice thread. If the SEC is down who cares because it gives A&M the opportunity to reload and continue to build on it's success. NCAA basketball is the most singularly affected sport by freshmen. Where was A&M last year without its freshman class. I like the coaches Kennedy brought in and we need at least two more years of solid recruiting to get the program back to where it was. Making it back to the dance is the immediate goal.
greg.w.h
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quote:
Nice thread. If the SEC is down who cares because it gives A&M the opportunity to reload and continue to build on it's success. NCAA basketball is the most singularly affected sport by freshmen. Where was A&M last year without its freshman class. I like the coaches Kennedy brought in and we need at least two more years of solid recruiting to get the program back to where it was. Making it back to the dance is the immediate goal.


If our conference RPI continues to droop it is bad for A&M in several ways. Not the least is loss of audience at home games and loss of revenue from the SECN. We ought to desire a competitive conference. The opposite is why the SWC finally broke apart. I think this nets out ok because of generally the SEC being more stable due specifically to much better football, but I still want to see finishing in the top six positions as a guaranteed NCAA bid.
Pumpkinhead
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quote:
quote:
Nice thread. If the SEC is down who cares because it gives A&M the opportunity to reload and continue to build on it's success. NCAA basketball is the most singularly affected sport by freshmen. Where was A&M last year without its freshman class. I like the coaches Kennedy brought in and we need at least two more years of solid recruiting to get the program back to where it was. Making it back to the dance is the immediate goal.


If our conference RPI continues to droop it is bad for A&M in several ways. Not the least is loss of audience at home games and loss of revenue from the SECN. We ought to desire a competitive conference. The opposite is why the SWC finally broke apart. I think this nets out ok because of generally the SEC being more stable due specifically to much better football, but I still want to see finishing in the top six positions as a guaranteed NCAA bid.


SEC >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SWC
phorizt
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I did a little comparison a while back and the SEC has actually been recruiting more 4 and 5 star players the last couple of years than the were previously. We need to have at least 6 teams with a legit chance to get to the NCAA tournament. I think we're a year away but hopefully White, Howland, Johnson, Pearl, Barnes etc can get things turned around soon. Seems like there's been a major upgrade in head coaching talent in the league(except for losing Donovan) but that hasn't translated to better play yet.
halfastros81
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Isn't UK starting over completely? No returning players that logged over 5 mpg. I know they always reload with the best of the one and dones but I can see all kinds of things potentially going wrong for them. I could see how next yrs SEC title could be there for the taking for someone other than UK and I could see the Ags as the team most likely to do it.
wacarnolds
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quote:
Isn't UK starting over completely? No returning players that logged over 5 mpg.
Isaiah Briscoe played 32 mpg
Derek Willis played 19 mpg
Dominique Hawkins played 9 mpg
GE
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GE forecast* (unresearched, other than by memory):

1. UK
2. TAMU
3. FLA
4. MSU
5. BAMA
6. UGA
7. ARKY
8. LSU
9. TENN
10. VANDY
11. USC
12. MIZZOU
13. AUBURN
14. OLE MISS

*subject to change at any time
bobinator
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quote:
I did a little comparison a while back and the SEC has actually been recruiting more 4 and 5 star players the last couple of years than the were previously. We need to have at least 6 teams with a legit chance to get to the NCAA tournament. I think we're a year away but hopefully White, Howland, Johnson, Pearl, Barnes etc can get things turned around soon. Seems like there's been a major upgrade in head coaching talent in the league(except for losing Donovan) but that hasn't translated to better play yet.

Exactly this. And Arkansas needs to be better.

But these things come in circles. There was a time when the Big 12 absolutely sucked at basketball.
wacarnolds
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why would you not have missouri at the bottom? worst team last year, 2nd worst recruiting class and probably the worst coach in the league
bobinator
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Yeah, we could probably divide our team in half and both of those teams would be more talented than poor Mizzou at the moment
wacarnolds
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also lost one of their best returning players, Namon Wright, to a transfer.

quote:
Mizzou, which is 19-44 during the last two seasons, has now had 12 players de-commit, transfer or be dismissed during Anderson's tenure.

GE
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why would you not have missouri at the bottom? worst team last year, 2nd worst recruiting class and probably the worst coach in the league
I just started putting teams in randomly and ole miss was already at the bottom. Mizzou at the very bottom is more likely. That list was about 45 seconds in the making - not my best work. Still would wager this list is closer to the actual than the one in the OP.
Pumpkinhead
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why would you not have missouri at the bottom? worst team last year, 2nd worst recruiting class and probably the worst coach in the league
Mizzou SEC Conference Record Under Kim Anderson

Year 1: 3-15 (14th)
Year 2: 3-15 (14th)

I'll go ahead and predict 3-15 and 14th place finish in Anderson's Year 3...until it is proven otherwise that something better is possible.

If he does do that poorly yet again, sure seems like Mizzou would be close to cutting bait.Can't imagine what the fan mood is at this point. Just think how poor the mood was on TexAgs when Billy Kennedy went 4-14, 7-11, and 8-10 in his first three seasons in conference play. Yet those win-loss records look absolutely stellar to what has been going on at Mizzou lately. And, it wasn't that long ago that they were pretty good in hoops. they know what good basketball looks like up there.
bobinator
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Well, Haith sort of hosed them so Kim was going to get a few years no matter what, but I just don't know that we've seen any indication that he might turn the corner.
wacarnolds
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Well, Haith sort of hosed them so Kim was going to get a few years no matter what, but I just don't know that we've seen any indication that he might turn the corner.
Landing Porter's dad as an asst would have gone a long way. Now that that ship has sailed, not sure anything he'll do this year will save him.

Maybe the political mess at both the state and university level can keep too many people from noticing and buy him a 4th year.
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