Note 1: I'm a Baylor fan, and I'm posting this hoping for an outside viewpoint on what will end up happening (asside from a Baylor perspective). I've tried to keep this post as neutral as possible.
Alright, with everyone @ 4 games to play, we all know about the incredible logjam in the Big XII, so lets break it down. Caution, long @ss post. One other note of caution: the selection committe DOES NOT REPEAT DOES NOT look at conference affiliation when choosing schools for the tourney; each team stands alone. So far, we have 3 locks (UT, KSU, KU) in the dance. I don't think the Big XII puts 6 in, so at most we've got 2 open spots left.
As always, this is one man's opinion.
Firt off, lets assume that one of the top 4 teams will win the Big XII tournament (a safe assumption due to the first round bye) to take the automatic tourney spot. Given that ASSUMPTION, lets now look at schedules and possible outcomes. All of this does NOT include the Big XII tourney.
We currently have four teams at 6-6 (Baylor, A&M, OU, Tech), and even more amazing, THREE teams at 5-7 (Nebraska, Missou, OSU). That means that 7 teams are fighting for what would likely be 2 spots. It's vitaly important that a team finish well over its last 6 weeks, and particularly over the last 2-3.
Baylor (17-8, 6-6, RPI 34, SOS 30): Remaining schedule, @CU, Mizzou, A&M, @Tech. Baylor's current RPI is good, not great, and their SOS is fairly solid. However, the SOS will take a dip as our last 4 teams aren't lighting the building on fire. 10-6 is an obvious lock for anyone that makes it, but, IMO, 9-7 is only a lock if we clear out both A&M and Tech to cement our ability to play with teams that could make the tournament. A decent shot at the Big Dance, but by no means a lock. The BU/A&M game may end up being the play-in game instead of A&M/OU.
A&M (19-7, 6-6, RPI 47, SOS 78): Remaining schedule, Tech, @OU, @BU, Kansas. A murder's row. They matchup well with OU, and Tech doesn't play well on the road . . . but I can't see them winning more than 3 of these. I'd give A&M an equal shot at making the Big Dance w/ Baylor . . . A&M's RPI and SOS is weaker and they play a much tougher schedule than BU, but we all know this team can put together a streak.
OU (18-9, 6-6, RPI 28, SOS 6): Remaining schedule, @NU, A&M, @OSU, Missou. IMO, the most likely candidate to make the dance. While NU is playing better of late, they still aren't great. A&M beat them by more than the final score would suggest (60-52), but they do get A&M at home. OSU is playing lights out for the past few games. Missou sucks. Tough call, but I'll give them a 3-1 finish with a loss to either A&M or OSU and a spot in the dance. They've got enough big time wins to offset the SFA loss, and their SOS is out of this world. Also, their 3 game skid came with Longar Longar out due to injury, which is something the selection comittee does look at.
Tech (14-11, 6-6, RPI 56, SOS 8): Remaining schedule, @A&M, UT, @KU, BU. Even more difficult than A&M. Tech is mediocre on the road (1-5 in conference play, the one win coming @CU), so A&M and KU are losses. UT should win. Tough to see any way shape or form Tech manages 2 wins out of that 4 to even get to 8-8 in conference . . . I'd say one win tops out of those 4. Safest bet of the 4 teams at 6-6; Tech heads to the NIT.
Nebraska (16-9, 5-7, RPI 101, SOS 120): Remaining schedule, OU, @OSU, @UT, CU. At most they win 2 of those to get to 7-9. Not a threat.
Missou (15-12, 5-7, RPI 85, SOS 41): Remaining schedule, OSU, @BU, ISU, @OU. OSU is playing lights out right now, and they have Baylor on the road. That doesn't even cover the OU game . . . I don't think they can do it. They'd have to win 3 of 4 and get some Big XII tourney help to get in . . . not a threat.
OSU (13-12, 5-7, RPI 90, SOS 22): Remaining schedule, @Mizzou, NU, OU, @UT. The biggest threat to possibly make the dance . . . OSU has been playing LIGHTS OUT since the Baylor game, winning in college station and beating Kansas. However, even if they did win out to get to 9-7, they'd still only be at 17-12. They do have a signature win (Kansas), and they'd be riding a 7-0, 6-1 finish to the tourney. I could easily see them winning 3 of the last 4.
Conclusion: the remaining schedule definately eliminates Tech, Nebraska, Missou. OSU is riding a hot streak, but I'll trust the whorns to win the last game and that OSU will drop one they shouldn't, putting them at 7-9, possibly 8-8. That leaves OU, BU, and A&M to fight it out. While OU's schedule is tougher with the roadie at NU, @OSU and A&M, I think they can do it. Baylor is in a good (not great) position coming down the home stretch, as they easily have the clearest path for the final 4 games. A&M by far has the most difficult road to haul for the last two weeks.
Prediction: OU closes out at 2-2 to get to 8-8 (just a gut feeling that they aren't quite as good as their RPI would suggest), and the winner of the A&M/Baylor games closes out 3-1 while the loser closes 2-2. That would put the Baylor/A&M game winner, KU, KSU, UT in the dance, with all the teams at 8-8 needing to put some magic on display at the Big XII tourney to get an invite.
Thoughts on this overly long post?
Alright, with everyone @ 4 games to play, we all know about the incredible logjam in the Big XII, so lets break it down. Caution, long @ss post. One other note of caution: the selection committe DOES NOT REPEAT DOES NOT look at conference affiliation when choosing schools for the tourney; each team stands alone. So far, we have 3 locks (UT, KSU, KU) in the dance. I don't think the Big XII puts 6 in, so at most we've got 2 open spots left.
As always, this is one man's opinion.
Firt off, lets assume that one of the top 4 teams will win the Big XII tournament (a safe assumption due to the first round bye) to take the automatic tourney spot. Given that ASSUMPTION, lets now look at schedules and possible outcomes. All of this does NOT include the Big XII tourney.
We currently have four teams at 6-6 (Baylor, A&M, OU, Tech), and even more amazing, THREE teams at 5-7 (Nebraska, Missou, OSU). That means that 7 teams are fighting for what would likely be 2 spots. It's vitaly important that a team finish well over its last 6 weeks, and particularly over the last 2-3.
Baylor (17-8, 6-6, RPI 34, SOS 30): Remaining schedule, @CU, Mizzou, A&M, @Tech. Baylor's current RPI is good, not great, and their SOS is fairly solid. However, the SOS will take a dip as our last 4 teams aren't lighting the building on fire. 10-6 is an obvious lock for anyone that makes it, but, IMO, 9-7 is only a lock if we clear out both A&M and Tech to cement our ability to play with teams that could make the tournament. A decent shot at the Big Dance, but by no means a lock. The BU/A&M game may end up being the play-in game instead of A&M/OU.
A&M (19-7, 6-6, RPI 47, SOS 78): Remaining schedule, Tech, @OU, @BU, Kansas. A murder's row. They matchup well with OU, and Tech doesn't play well on the road . . . but I can't see them winning more than 3 of these. I'd give A&M an equal shot at making the Big Dance w/ Baylor . . . A&M's RPI and SOS is weaker and they play a much tougher schedule than BU, but we all know this team can put together a streak.
OU (18-9, 6-6, RPI 28, SOS 6): Remaining schedule, @NU, A&M, @OSU, Missou. IMO, the most likely candidate to make the dance. While NU is playing better of late, they still aren't great. A&M beat them by more than the final score would suggest (60-52), but they do get A&M at home. OSU is playing lights out for the past few games. Missou sucks. Tough call, but I'll give them a 3-1 finish with a loss to either A&M or OSU and a spot in the dance. They've got enough big time wins to offset the SFA loss, and their SOS is out of this world. Also, their 3 game skid came with Longar Longar out due to injury, which is something the selection comittee does look at.
Tech (14-11, 6-6, RPI 56, SOS 8): Remaining schedule, @A&M, UT, @KU, BU. Even more difficult than A&M. Tech is mediocre on the road (1-5 in conference play, the one win coming @CU), so A&M and KU are losses. UT should win. Tough to see any way shape or form Tech manages 2 wins out of that 4 to even get to 8-8 in conference . . . I'd say one win tops out of those 4. Safest bet of the 4 teams at 6-6; Tech heads to the NIT.
Nebraska (16-9, 5-7, RPI 101, SOS 120): Remaining schedule, OU, @OSU, @UT, CU. At most they win 2 of those to get to 7-9. Not a threat.
Missou (15-12, 5-7, RPI 85, SOS 41): Remaining schedule, OSU, @BU, ISU, @OU. OSU is playing lights out right now, and they have Baylor on the road. That doesn't even cover the OU game . . . I don't think they can do it. They'd have to win 3 of 4 and get some Big XII tourney help to get in . . . not a threat.
OSU (13-12, 5-7, RPI 90, SOS 22): Remaining schedule, @Mizzou, NU, OU, @UT. The biggest threat to possibly make the dance . . . OSU has been playing LIGHTS OUT since the Baylor game, winning in college station and beating Kansas. However, even if they did win out to get to 9-7, they'd still only be at 17-12. They do have a signature win (Kansas), and they'd be riding a 7-0, 6-1 finish to the tourney. I could easily see them winning 3 of the last 4.
Conclusion: the remaining schedule definately eliminates Tech, Nebraska, Missou. OSU is riding a hot streak, but I'll trust the whorns to win the last game and that OSU will drop one they shouldn't, putting them at 7-9, possibly 8-8. That leaves OU, BU, and A&M to fight it out. While OU's schedule is tougher with the roadie at NU, @OSU and A&M, I think they can do it. Baylor is in a good (not great) position coming down the home stretch, as they easily have the clearest path for the final 4 games. A&M by far has the most difficult road to haul for the last two weeks.
Prediction: OU closes out at 2-2 to get to 8-8 (just a gut feeling that they aren't quite as good as their RPI would suggest), and the winner of the A&M/Baylor games closes out 3-1 while the loser closes 2-2. That would put the Baylor/A&M game winner, KU, KSU, UT in the dance, with all the teams at 8-8 needing to put some magic on display at the Big XII tourney to get an invite.
Thoughts on this overly long post?