Hearing whispers amongst farmer friends that meat prices are about to skyrocket. Anyone hearing anything similar? No discussion as to why really, just that it could get ugly.

Hasn't this already been happening?

Beef Cheek said:

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Hasn't this already been happening?

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Definitely, but they make it sound like a really sharp spike is coming in front of the holidays or something. I didn't try to push for details or anything just curious if anyone else was hearing something similar

Big drought in the west US causing headaches over grazing. Could be a massive sell off in cattle is coming to an end and supply is about to tighten up.

I raise beef cattle. Yes, beef prices will be going up along with all other meats. Grain prices are up dramatically this year. That coupled with labor demands throughout the US the packing industry will be paying record wages to floor workers. Ironically, a customer of mine just announced that all of their employees will be receiving a 16% wage increase.

These packers are competing with Amazon here in the Texas panhandle for employees. I've heard rumor that they are paying $25+/hour (I've not independently verified that).

We are headed for a roller coaster ride with beef. Fortunately I have over 1,000 bales of hay baled (I'll be back at it tomorrow morning for a few hundred more) and should be able to handle market fluctuations and take advantage of it.

Neighbor's mailman's cousin heard something about a reduction and/or shutdown at a big Cargill plant?

Sams
6 pork chops
6 rib eyes
6 pork loons

About 18 poinds. 245.00

If the rancher was making great money on their calves I'd be OK with paying the exorbitant prices for beef today. In my strong opinion, there's no question the packing industry (beef, pork, poultry) is controlled by a select few, and in my opinion, we haven't seen the end of rising protein prices.

Hopefully some farmers will start allowing for direct access to the consumer and both sides win. I'd love to buy direct from the farmer but don't want half of a cow.

Taking a "grass fed" 3 yr old cow Thurs. Will be hamburger and roasts only. Hamburger should come out about 90/10 or so.

Be ready in 3 weeks. Happy to sell in 50 lb increments, if you are close enough. $4.50 a pound

college of AG said:

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Taking a "grass fed" 3 yr old cow Thurs. Will be hamburger and roasts only. Hamburger should come out about 90/10 or so.

Be ready in 3 weeks. Happy to sell in 50 lb increments, if you are close enough. $4.50 a pound

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I'll take 2 25 lb rib roasts.....

college of AG said:

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Taking a "grass fed" 3 yr old cow Thurs. Will be hamburger and roasts only. Hamburger should come out about 90/10 or so.

Be ready in 3 weeks. Happy to sell in 50 lb increments, if you are close enough. $4.50 a pound

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Where are you located and could it be shipped? This is good bull by the way.

Livingston. North of Houston.

Headed to CS for Prairie view game.

UnderoosAg said:

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Neighbor's mailman's cousin heard something about a reduction and/or shutdown at a big Cargill plant?

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These things happen when maintenance needs to be done. They just bump up their other plants to fill in.

Middle meats are starting or have been dropping the last few weeks. Strips took a huge dump. All these so called profesional brisket cookers are keeping briskets pretty tight and prices up. What is amazing is the ends cuts and grinds. Has been difficult to find decently priced items in load quantities. Packers are not over producing many grinds, especially 73's.
Thin meats finally made a big correction this week and hit the low 5's. Not sure we will ever see $4 skirts again, but it is better than $7 for sure. Especially for the local taquerias. Lots of skirts were sold Wednesday and believe they went to Mexico.

Overall, packers are still killing lots of cattle but the demand slowed down this week.

Offalls are still high and not showing signs of slowing downs with colder months approaching. Mexico has contracted most all swift Honeycomb for export. Only way I can secure some is through a Mexico owned beef company.

You sound like you know what you're talking about! No clue what you just said but I sure wish I could drink a beer with you and talk about killing cows.

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Middle meats are starting or have been dropping the last few weeks.

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What's going on with Lip-on Ribeyes? That's my go to steak but I won't pay $22 per pound for a Prime ribeye steak at the grocery store. I'd love to buy a whole lip on that weighs less than 15 pounds but that's not going to happen given the live weights of cattle these days.

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Only way I can secure some is through a Mexico owned beef company.

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Su Carne?

This may sound sick, but there's nothing better than going to a packing plant (from the pens to the coolers), that processes 5000 head a day. It is a fascinating experience.

Here's the problem...take a young calf and fatten it up and then try to find a slot at a local meat locker. They either have gone out of business or the lead times are crazy.

Toddy,

I was very surprised but our local had spots open within a week.

I agree! Had the privilege (if you want to call it that) to do some work in a beef and chicken packing plants. Quite amazing to see a live bird go from that to chopped up and in grocery store shrink wrap in 10 mins, times 1000!

Wow, I'm shocked. Where do you live if I might ask? Here in East Tennessee is was months out.

Just north of Houston.

This time of year ribeyes generally come down and we buy for end of November through December when pricing increases historically.

Yes SuKarne.

Thanks AgsMnn...

SuKarne does a nice job. I wish more retailers would pick up their product. Around here (East Tennessee), I can only find it, occasionally, in one discount supermarket. It certainly isn't Choice or Select, but for the price, and marinated and jacarrded it's pretty decent on the grill.

Then again, I'm sure they have no problem selling all of their fabricated beef.

And btw, thanks for the input on Ribeyes. I remember they go sky high before Christmas (Prime Rib, etc.), so I'll see if I can pick one up for only a bazillion dollars per pound.

ToddyHill said:

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This may sound sick, but there's nothing better than going to a packing plant (from the pens to the coolers), that processes 5000 head a day. It is a fascinating experience.

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When Sam Kane's was still operating in Corpus, they'd say "from hook to hoof in 90 seconds" and indeed, it was a fascinating experience.

I haven't read through the whole thread, but meat commodity prices have already skyrocketed. Most grocers have been holding prices down and taking losses/significantly reduced margins on meat. I'm not sure how much longer that will last, but the hope was to ride this out until the market softened. Not sure if it is feasible for the grocers to continue eating the cost much longer as they are facing down payroll increases and rising capital costs due to the steel/aluminum prices.

Just read through the thread. Sounds like another round of even higher prices may be on the horizon.

We're in for a mean run of inflation over the next year or two. Buckle up.

Oscar Meyer bacon, 16 Oz is just shy of $9 at Walmart right now! Good grief!

My first job out of A&M was with Oscar Mayer. All day long you could buy it for $1.99 per pound.