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Perception is reality … except when it's not.

With the sunrise of National Signing Day just ever-so-slightly over the horizon, it's time to clear up some misperceptions about the current landscape in recruiting inside the state of Texas, while also pointing out the super showdown that will take place over the course of the next 13 months.

Let's start out with one of the major points that must be reinforced from the very start because it's critically important to the overall narrative of this opening section of the column. The point? Texas A&M isn't the new king of recruiting in the Lone Star State. Oh, the Aggies have a ton of momentum and they might yet take the crown away from Mack Brown, but it hasn't happened yet. That's not to say that it can't happen fairly soon if Mack and Co. don't raise the level of their collective performance in all areas, but stating that Mack lost his recruiting fastball in the Class of 2013 is very misleading.

Let's take a look at some numbers.

As I reported this weekend with the release of the updated Lone Star Recruiting Top 100, UT's' performance within the state is incredibly strong when you consider the numbers of its smaller class. In analyzing the numbers, you'll see that the Longhorns have commitments from five of the state's top 10 prospects, seven of the top 18 and 10 of the top 50. Meanwhile, the Aggies have commitments from three of the state's top 10 prospects, five of the top 25 and 14 of the top 56.

If you're one of those folks who believes that ol' Ketch hates the Aggies and his numbers must be skewed heavily in favor of the Longhorns, here's a second set of numbers to consider. In breaking down the Rivals.com Top 100 for the state of Texas, the Longhorns have commitments from five of the top 10, eight of the top 19 and nine of the top 50 overall. Meanwhile, the Aggies have commitments from three of the top 10, seven of the top 25 and 15 of the top 55.

For the most part, there's a fairly strong consensus about the upper-echelon players from the state of Texas. You're splitting hairs if you think otherwise. From an average star per commitment standpoint, the Longhorns in-state haul averages 3.86, while A&M's in-state haul averages 3.48.

The raw numbers don't emphatically declare any true winner, although you might give Texas a slight nod because of the overall value per recruit. The numbers don't take into account that the Longhorns were victorious in more true head-to-head battles, but they also don't take into account that most of A&M's success has come later, while the Longhorns' success was much earlier. The only things that need to be said are that both programs did an excellent job in-state and that it's tough to draw a conclusion from what it all means because of the circumstances involved.

What matters most is what happens in the class of 2014 and whether the dynamics in the state have changed to the point where the Longhorns are no longer the team selecting first in the pool of the elite of the elite. With a push of a mini reset button, we're going to start finding some answers about the dynamics that everyone is talking about as soon as pen is put to paper in early February.

That's when the heat in 2014 really increases.

Although the LSR Top 100 for 2014 is in need or a refresh, the data can still serve as a barometer for the climate we're headed for in 2014 with both teams already landing the kids in this state that are the hottest to trot for an offer from each school. The Longhorns have six commitments in the 2014 class thus far, and five of them hold early four-star rankings. As for the Aggies, they have six in-state commitments and four of them are rated as four-star prospects. The Texas commitments rank No. 5, No. 6, No. 8, No. 23, No. 33 and NR on the LSR Top 100, while the Aggie commitments rank No. 1, No. 2, No. 11, No. 14, No. 40 and No. 63 on the same list. The Longhorns have five prospects on the Rivals250 while the Aggies have four.

Therefore, things appear to be even as we begin the most important stretch of the 2014 recruiting. The Longhorns aren't behind, but they've lost a lot of the huge separation that they once had. The state hasn't been this competitive since 1999, Mack Brown's first full class in Austin.

Mack's task for the next nine months is to ensure that Kevin Sumlin doesn't do to him what Mack did to R.C. Slocum in his second season.

We're going to find in the next 60-90 days if Mack still has his recruiting fastball.

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Didn't he write a piece directly contradictory to this about a month or two back?

You make the damn list you cannot reference it.

Stupid, fat *****

Ketch's grandpappy was the Social Director on the Titanic....

"Ok, ladies and gentlemen, while we all await a freezing death in the North Atlantic, let me direct your attention to the lovely fashion show being held at 7 tonite in our Grand Ballroom. Entertainment will be provided by the Titanic Orchestra and hors d'œuvres served by our masterful chef from Paris....."

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Who ya gonna believe? Ol Ketch or your lying eyes?

What was Johnny Heisman ranked on fatketch's list again? Guy's got an eye for talent.

Stopped reading after realizing the lengthy ass drivel of "analysis" and "fact" was based on his own rankings.

So he randomly assigns rankings to recruits with obvious tu bias, moves others up/down after admitting no personal research done on his part (yet he is the one in charge of rankings), and then is going to base his obsessive rant to discount our meteoric rise in prominence (analysis) on his own list??

Yeah, Rivals and LSR sure have that "objective analysis" thing going for them.

The only sad result is you continue to see lazy, uninformed (or dare I say biased) state newspaper sportswriters basing their class rankings on Rivals dot com jabbajiz.

Didn't the obese orangebloods writer say the same thing after we beat Bama? And since Bama we've picked up RSJ and Hoza Scott. What a fool.

and justin manning, etc

the top 2 texas recruits from 2013 and 2014 say otherwise

no changes needed. stay the course!

It's funny how the NFL keeps taking our players in the first round and we just won a Heisman but that fat simpleton keeps babbling about t.u.'s "talent".

Dumbass.

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It's funny how the NFL keeps taking our players in the first round and we just won a Heisman but that fat simpleton keeps babbling about t.u.'s "talent".

Dumbass.

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In their defense their perpetual team of freshmen and sophomores don't qualify for the NFL draft. But its ok because they are young

See below for all you need to know about fat ketch's ability as a recruiting guru. Sad to think that a bunch a sips pay money to ol ketch for recruiting information.

OU 63 tu 21 > > Ketch<< A&M 41 OU 13

Keep Mack

I thought BlowU was their rival???

Fat Ketch is awesome

His policy of over ranking a kid because he chooses tu is a huge part of their soft, entitled mentality that is killing them.

Keep it up fatty! Everyone laughs at your obvious bias. Just because you declare that Johnny Football is a 3 star because he didn't commit to you and that Ash is a 5 star talent doesn't make it so

I wonder if he'll revisit those sentiments while he's watching RSJ, Quiz, and Griffin, play on nationally televised games this fall along with Justin Manning and Isaiah Golden?

tu lost their throne the day they told the Cotton Bowl they wouldn't accept a bid if A&M was given one.

Sergio was confirmed 5 stars. He saw all of them both times floating around his head after texting and managing the stairs.

Reality:

Our QB against Alabama:



tu QB against Alabama:



[This message has been edited by ABATTBQ87 (edited 1/15/2013 7:53a).]

That ^
is a winner ABATT.

Reality sets in at the Shag

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What a disaster that 2009 class turned out to be. Three contributors - Vaccaro, Okafor and Walters. That's it.

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http://www.sh****bevo.com/board/showthread.php/125101-Attrition

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ChuckCarltonDMN
RT @max_olson: Texas' No. 3 ranked recruiting class of 2009 had 20 signees. Only six will play out their full eligibility as #Longhorns.
1/13/13 8:12 PM

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Keep adding two stars to any kid that promises a commitment before an offer. We'll keep pulling in studs that will actually improve with time. At this point he's not even trying to sound rational.

Swoopes at no. 8 is all you need to know about the validity of that list.

I agree with Fat Ketch that Texas shouldn't change a thing. All is well!

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Swoopes at no. 8 is all you need to know about the validity of that list.

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The blubbery attention hoar says that Swoopes is the next VY.

This folks, cannot be any more obvious:

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Although the LSR Top 100 for 2014 is in need or a refresh

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while the Aggie commitments rank No. 1, No. 2

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Translation: I made the rankings, the Aggies landed both #1 & #2, but I will now "refresh" the rankings.

[This message has been edited by Dre06 (edited 1/15/2013 9:34a).]

So ****ing pathetic

Why would anyone actually subscribe to the garbage Fat Ketch writes?

After reading Ketchum's post, I decided to get onto Amazon to pick up this great book by another well respected and truthful Texas recruiting guru.

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In analyzing the numbers, you'll see that the Longhorns have commitments from five of the state's top 10 prospects, seven of the top 18 and 10 of the top 50. Meanwhile, the Aggies have commitments from three of the state's top 10 prospects, five of the top 25 and 14 of the top 56.

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Analyzing the numbers he had to bend over backwards to create is why Ketch is so awesome.

Anybody worked up the ranking movement chart with Ag commits vs. Sip commits?