Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report

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John Crowe, 2026 Unlock MLS and ABoR president, emphasized the importance of understanding local market conditions and working with a real estate professional when making buying or selling decisions.

"It's easy to look at a headline about declining sales or rising mortgage rates and feel discouraged, but every buyer and seller is in a different position. What's happening across the broader market may look very different depending on the neighborhood, price point or type of home you're considering. That's where working with a knowledgeable real estate agent can make a real difference. They can help you identify opportunities that fit your needs and make informed decisions based on your goals rather than trying to predict what the market will do next."

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2026 is almost in the books, and man, has it been a tough year for Realtors!

My sales volume is down quite a bit this year, but thankfully, teaching the real estate program at my local high school has its perks!

Nationally, there are over 1.1 million homes for sale, with inventory reaching levels we haven't seen since 2019. I've also seen reports suggesting there are roughly 60% more sellers than buyers. Needless to say, it's a challenging market!

On a positive note, my Fredericksburg listing officially closed without a hitch! We were able to get it under contract in just 13 days, despite Fredericksburg having approximately 12 months of inventory. That's a tough market to sell a home in! It goes to show that having an experienced real estate agent with the right pricing, marketing, and negotiation strategy can make all the difference. And the best part? My elderly client saved over $13,000 in listing fees by taking advantage of Red Pear Realty's 1.5% listing fee!

In a market like this, every dollar matters!

Here's a quick look at the September 2026 Austin-area housing market:

Median Sales Price: $421,000, up 1.4% year-over-year
Closed Sales: 2,223, down 14.8%
Sales Dollar Volume: $1.27 billion, down 10.4%
Months of Inventory: 5.4 months, down 0.1 months year-over-year
New Listings: 3,546, up 2.8%
Active Listings: 13,465, down 3.4%
Pending Sales: 2,313, down 1.8%
Average Days on Market: 73 days, down 3 days
Average Close-to-List Price: 92.7%, compared to 91.4% last September

Buyer Takeaways:

• Buyers still have negotiating power. Homes are closing at about 92.7% of original list price, creating opportunities to negotiate on price, seller concessions, repairs, and rate buydowns.
• Inventory remains favorable. With 5.4 months of inventory, buyers still have plenty of options and less pressure to rush into a purchase.
• Buyer activity has slowed. Closed sales dropped 14.8% year-over-year, while pending sales declined 1.8%, suggesting less competition among buyers.

Seller Takeaways:

• Pricing is more important than ever. Despite median prices increasing 1.4% to $421,000, closed sales fell 14.8%, making competitive pricing essential.
• There's slightly less competition. Active listings are down 3.4% year-over-year, although new listings increased 2.8%.
• Homes are taking longer to sell. Properties averaged 73 days on the market, reinforcing the importance of realistic pricing, strong marketing, and proper presentation.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County

Mortgage Shock Sends US Pending Home Sales to Near 12-Year Low (Bloomberg, 10/12)

• Rates: Freddie Mac's 30-year averaged 7.32% for the week of 10/22. That is the first weekly decline since August, after two weeks at 7.40%, which was the highest since November 2023. A year ago it was about 6.2%.
  
• 10 YR: Closed at 4.99% on 10/27, down from a 5.31% high on 10/5. It was around 5.18% when I posted last month. It is still up roughly 80 bps since the start of the year.
  
• Existing home sales (September closings):
  
  • 3.99M annualized, +1.5% MoM and -2.2% YoY.
  • Median price $417,500, +1.3% YoY.
  • Inventory 1.60M, or 4.8 months of supply, the most inventory since 2019.
  • Most September closings were contracts written in July and August, when rates averaged about 6.5-6.7%.
    
• Pending home sales (September contracts):
  
  • -7.3% MoM and -11.3% YoY.
  • NAR's index fell to 66.0, the lowest reading in the history of the index.
  • The South was -8.2% MoM and -12.0% YoY.
  • This is the first data that fully reflects rates crossing 7%.
    
• New construction:
  
  • Housing starts fell 5.2% to 1.22M annualized.
  • Single-family starts fell 4.6% to 859K.
  • Single-family permits are the lowest since March 2023.
    
• Takeaway: Closings held up because those buyers locked rates in the 6s. Contracts did not hold up, and that should show in October and November closings.

DFW Metroplex (single-family)

• A lot of noise in the data and it will be interesting to see data starting next month when rates were higher. Overall, prices generally flat to slightly down, active listings are down, and closed sales are down. Sellers are pulling listings off the market as inventory is sitting. Its tough out there.
  
• I asked Claude to read the more in depth August report to see what anecdotes it produced. In summary, inventory seems to be highest (6 months) in the outer rings where construction levels have been the highest. In contrast, inner ring inventory was in the 2-3 month range. As it relates to the K shaped economy, across DFW, the average price rose 4 per cent while the median fell 1 per cent. Most notably:
  
  
  • Tarrant: average up 13 per cent, median flat.
    
  • Dallas County: average up 5 per cent, median flat.
    
  • Highland Park: 12 single-family sales against 4 a year ago, at a $3.4mn median and 2.4 months of supply. It ranks as the hottest city in the report. (I'm guessing a lot more not reported that are private listings).
    
  • Southlake: sales doubled to 36 and the median jumped to $1.7mn.