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mortgage rates today.

8,928 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by SteveBott
SteveBott
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I'm beating a dead horse but as you know the Fed dropped their rates today by .25%.

See how the mortgage market reacted from a website I monitor



Yesterday
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I remember getting a note on our first rent house in 2008 for ~5.25% and my dad thought we were stealing money.
Tex117
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And....when its all said and done. Not much is going to change.

Prices of homes have to come down in some sort of parallel for this to actually improve things.

Interest Rates alone are not going to move the market in orders of magnitude.
andrago94
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Fed may have to restart QE to get rates to drop.
Red Pear Realty
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That was their plan all along. Crush the market so they could "save" it and make themselves richer doing so.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
SteveBott
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And the market is still not satisfied





Jay@AgsReward.com
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I do not think there is any doubt about it once the new chair is in place. At the very least they will stop selling their current MBS holdings, but likely buy more.
Heineken-Ashi
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Short term fed funds rate has no bearing on long term market rates.

I can't believe how often that has to be said.

The FED dropping "rates" means they are dropping the target rate for the Fed funds rate, which is nothing more than the rate the FED will pay interest on bank reserves. If that rate is still higher than banks can get by loaning to each other, or into the general economy, banks will continue to keep money at the FED.

For mortgage rates to move, the bond market has to move. Especially the longer end (10, 20, or 30 year treasuries). The Fed funds rate has ZERO impact on long bonds. When investors (domestic and foreign) trust the dollar, the government's ability to fund its obligations, and the stability of the economy.. AND when treasuries are deemed safe and reliable compared to investing anywhere else (like equities or parking money at the FED), they will buy treasuries which will cause treasury yields to go down.

When banks both foreign and domestic can park money at the FED and get the same or higher interest than putting that money anywhere else, RISK FREE (not even treasuries are risk free), they wont be buying treasuries. Therefore, treasuries will not be moving up significantly (and rates moving down) unless the retail segment (everyday people) all of the sudden have a massive shift from risk to safety.
SteveBott
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Pretty good explainer of the last few days

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09182025
Silvertaps
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We close on our house on 10/10…so hoping for any good news day by day in regards to rates.
Tex117
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Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)
CFTXAG10
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Silvertaps said:

We close on our house on 10/10…so hoping for any good news day by day in regards to rates.

Have you not locked in a rate yet?
Jay@AgsReward.com
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If you were my client I would have certainly recommended to lock before Wednesday. Rates have, as predicted, have gone up.
TxAG#2011
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Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)

They aren't ******ed, they are just slinging whatever BS they can to make a sale.
CFTXAG10
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Jay@AgsReward.com said:

If you were my client I would have certainly recommended to lock before Wednesday. Rates have, as predicted, have gone up.

Yea, we had a quick turnaround recently from selling to purchase. Knowing what was coming on the 17th I wanted to lock on Monday and did. I don't think I will regret it.
Red Pear Realty
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TxAG#2011 said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)

They aren't ******ed, they are just slinging whatever BS they can to make a sale.


No they are actually ******ed.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Tex117
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Quote:

Quote:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)

They aren't ******ed, they are just slinging whatever BS they can to make a sale.

True.

Quote:

No they are actually ******ed.

But still this. (Red Pear of course not included)

Heineken-Ashi
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Tex117 said:

Quote:

Quote:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)

They aren't ******ed, they are just slinging whatever BS they can to make a sale.

True.

Quote:

No they are actually ******ed.

But still this. (Red Pear of course not included)



The 5th best Red Pear agent being not ******ed means all of them are good.
MS08
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My main interest at the moment is what is going to happen to the Prime Rate. If I can get relief there, that is wonderful news. 25 basis points just happened - need more of those.
Yesterday
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This will drop prime .25
Pizza
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Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.
Heineken-Ashi
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Pizza said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.

Current sentiment is denial.

Acceptance is a couple steps down the road.
Pizza
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Pizza said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.

Current sentiment is denial.

Acceptance is a couple steps down the road.


Where I'm at, I see some acknowledgement from property owners that Single Family Residential may be over valued....but realtors & loan officers refuse to accept that. I'm sitting down right now looking at a subdivision full of terminated listings, where people bought in the low to mid 400's 2 years ago, and now can't sell for much higher than 375k. This particular Subdivision is atypical for the Market Area; however what I've discovered is that many homeowners received Appraisal Waivers after putting down around 20-25% on the original purchase around 2023.

Appraisers have gotten screwed by AMC's, and are largely disregarded by Realtor's & LO's. Mortgage Banks will threaten AMC's by witholding work when Appraisers come in low as well.

I honestly can't make heads or tails of some Market Areas anymore, and I just want to beat my head against the desk. It feels like allot like a 2007/2008 scenario with different forces in play, but tbh I have no idea. Maybe it isn't.

My gut is telling me that things are very much over valued where I'm at, but it is incredibly difficult to tell.

I think if interest rates were lowered significantly, spurring Market Activity, there would be a short & sharp decline in Sales Prices.
Red Pear Realty
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Y'all think realtors and loan officers decide listing prices?
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Red Pear Realty
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FWIW, I fairly regularly turn down potential listings from delusional sellers.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Furlock Bones
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Pizza said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Pizza said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.

Current sentiment is denial.

Acceptance is a couple steps down the road.


Where I'm at, I see some acknowledgement from property owners that Single Family Residential may be over valued....but realtors & loan officers refuse to accept that. I'm sitting down right now looking at a subdivision full of terminated listings, where people bought in the low to mid 400's 2 years ago, and now can't sell for much higher than 375k. This particular Subdivision is atypical for the Market Area; however what I've discovered is that many homeowners received Appraisal Waivers after putting down around 20-25% on the original purchase around 2023.

Appraisers have gotten screwed by AMC's, and are largely disregarded by Realtor's & LO's. Mortgage Banks will threaten AMC's by witholding work when Appraisers come in low as well.

I honestly can't make heads or tails of some Market Areas anymore, and I just want to beat my head against the desk. It feels like allot like a 2007/2008 scenario with different forces in play, but tbh I have no idea. Maybe it isn't.

My gut is telling me that things are very much over valued where I'm at, but it is incredibly difficult to tell.

I think if interest rates were lowered significantly, spurring Market Activity, there would be a short & sharp decline in Sales Prices.

It's not. 2008 wasn't just falling home prices and foreclosures. It was a structurally unsound financial system. We are long, long way from that time period. Now, serious price corrections are happening. There's no doubt. But, foreclosure levels are historic norms.
Heineken-Ashi
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Furlock Bones said:

Pizza said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Pizza said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.

Current sentiment is denial.

Acceptance is a couple steps down the road.


Where I'm at, I see some acknowledgement from property owners that Single Family Residential may be over valued....but realtors & loan officers refuse to accept that. I'm sitting down right now looking at a subdivision full of terminated listings, where people bought in the low to mid 400's 2 years ago, and now can't sell for much higher than 375k. This particular Subdivision is atypical for the Market Area; however what I've discovered is that many homeowners received Appraisal Waivers after putting down around 20-25% on the original purchase around 2023.

Appraisers have gotten screwed by AMC's, and are largely disregarded by Realtor's & LO's. Mortgage Banks will threaten AMC's by witholding work when Appraisers come in low as well.

I honestly can't make heads or tails of some Market Areas anymore, and I just want to beat my head against the desk. It feels like allot like a 2007/2008 scenario with different forces in play, but tbh I have no idea. Maybe it isn't.

My gut is telling me that things are very much over valued where I'm at, but it is incredibly difficult to tell.

I think if interest rates were lowered significantly, spurring Market Activity, there would be a short & sharp decline in Sales Prices.

It's not. 2008 wasn't just falling home prices and foreclosures. It was a structurally unsound financial system. We are long, long way from that time period. Now, serious price corrections are happening. There's no doubt. But, foreclosure levels are historic norms.

I think you are completely backward here. 2008 was a real estate bubble and financial system that was unsound completely because of that one factor. That's why a bank bailout and currency devalution was able to eventually provide a floor for the economy.

Our current financial system is at greater risk than it was then with bubbles in literally everything. And the dollar can't be further devalued without risking complete structural collapse. The lower and middle classes have been in recession since 2022. That wasn't the case in 2008. The rubber band is stretched tight. If it snaps, you might not get a 2008 style collapse. More likely, you will get the first true deleveraging event in nearly 100 years.
swimmerbabe11
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anecdotal data, our traffic and conversions are way up.
Furlock Bones
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

Furlock Bones said:

Pizza said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Pizza said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.

Current sentiment is denial.

Acceptance is a couple steps down the road.


Where I'm at, I see some acknowledgement from property owners that Single Family Residential may be over valued....but realtors & loan officers refuse to accept that. I'm sitting down right now looking at a subdivision full of terminated listings, where people bought in the low to mid 400's 2 years ago, and now can't sell for much higher than 375k. This particular Subdivision is atypical for the Market Area; however what I've discovered is that many homeowners received Appraisal Waivers after putting down around 20-25% on the original purchase around 2023.

Appraisers have gotten screwed by AMC's, and are largely disregarded by Realtor's & LO's. Mortgage Banks will threaten AMC's by witholding work when Appraisers come in low as well.

I honestly can't make heads or tails of some Market Areas anymore, and I just want to beat my head against the desk. It feels like allot like a 2007/2008 scenario with different forces in play, but tbh I have no idea. Maybe it isn't.

My gut is telling me that things are very much over valued where I'm at, but it is incredibly difficult to tell.

I think if interest rates were lowered significantly, spurring Market Activity, there would be a short & sharp decline in Sales Prices.

It's not. 2008 wasn't just falling home prices and foreclosures. It was a structurally unsound financial system. We are long, long way from that time period. Now, serious price corrections are happening. There's no doubt. But, foreclosure levels are historic norms.

I think you are completely backward here. 2008 was a real estate bubble and financial system that was unsound completely because of that one factor. That's why a bank bailout and currency devalution was able to eventually provide a floor for the economy.

Our current financial system is at greater risk than it was then with bubbles in literally everything. And the dollar can't be further devalued without risking complete structural collapse. The lower and middle classes have been in recession since 2022. That wasn't the case in 2008. The rubber band is stretched tight. If it snaps, you might not get a 2008 style collapse. More likely, you will get the first true deleveraging event in nearly 100 years.

no i don't have it backwards at all. you basically made my point then argued a different one.

in the context of real estate and its relative influence on the financial system, we are nowhere near where we were in 2007-2008. That's just fact.

now, is the greater financial system teetering on the edge of another wholesale change? yea, i would agree with that.

Heineken-Ashi
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Furlock Bones said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Furlock Bones said:

Pizza said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Pizza said:

Tex117 said:

Because residential real estate people are re- and tarded

(A precious…. Precious. Few aren't)

(I'm joking around…. But there always seems to be a certain slowness to accept reality with residential real estate)


Residential is an emotional market.

...and it really, really sucks sometimes when people just can't accept the writing on the wall.

Current sentiment is denial.

Acceptance is a couple steps down the road.


Where I'm at, I see some acknowledgement from property owners that Single Family Residential may be over valued....but realtors & loan officers refuse to accept that. I'm sitting down right now looking at a subdivision full of terminated listings, where people bought in the low to mid 400's 2 years ago, and now can't sell for much higher than 375k. This particular Subdivision is atypical for the Market Area; however what I've discovered is that many homeowners received Appraisal Waivers after putting down around 20-25% on the original purchase around 2023.

Appraisers have gotten screwed by AMC's, and are largely disregarded by Realtor's & LO's. Mortgage Banks will threaten AMC's by witholding work when Appraisers come in low as well.

I honestly can't make heads or tails of some Market Areas anymore, and I just want to beat my head against the desk. It feels like allot like a 2007/2008 scenario with different forces in play, but tbh I have no idea. Maybe it isn't.

My gut is telling me that things are very much over valued where I'm at, but it is incredibly difficult to tell.

I think if interest rates were lowered significantly, spurring Market Activity, there would be a short & sharp decline in Sales Prices.

It's not. 2008 wasn't just falling home prices and foreclosures. It was a structurally unsound financial system. We are long, long way from that time period. Now, serious price corrections are happening. There's no doubt. But, foreclosure levels are historic norms.

I think you are completely backward here. 2008 was a real estate bubble and financial system that was unsound completely because of that one factor. That's why a bank bailout and currency devalution was able to eventually provide a floor for the economy.

Our current financial system is at greater risk than it was then with bubbles in literally everything. And the dollar can't be further devalued without risking complete structural collapse. The lower and middle classes have been in recession since 2022. That wasn't the case in 2008. The rubber band is stretched tight. If it snaps, you might not get a 2008 style collapse. More likely, you will get the first true deleveraging event in nearly 100 years.

no i don't have it backwards at all. you basically made my point then argued a different one.

in the context of real estate and its relative influence on the financial system, we are nowhere near where we were in 2007-2008. That's just fact.

now, is the greater financial system teetering on the edge of another wholesale change? yea, i would agree with that.



We mostly agree. The ting is, while residential is mostly fine from a large % of owners having low rates and not needing to sell, the boomer class is expiring. The majority of their wealth is in their home that they think is worth $750k but wont actually sell for north of $500k. But it isn't even residential that is the risk here. It's commercial. And commercial has entered the 2 year period where it has to refinance or sell. And values are not going back to 2023 levels. When this distress hits the books and banks have to realize the losses they have been ignoring or hiding for the last 2 years, its absolutely going to cause calamity in the financial markets.
MAS444
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AG
Quote:

The majority of their wealth is in their home that they think is worth $750k but wont actually sell for north of $500k.

What's your authority for this? Genuinely curious.
Heineken-Ashi
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MAS444 said:

Quote:

The majority of their wealth is in their home that they think is worth $750k but wont actually sell for north of $500k.

What's your authroity for this? Genuinely curious.

My career in pretty much every arena of real estate, my active participation in both residential and commerical, and my continuous study and curiosity in the history of money, banking, financial markets, and societies.
MAS444
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AG
Cool.

Are you saying property values have declined by 25% over some period of time...or boomers are just clueless as to their values?

I'm not disagreeing with you at all as I don't have near the chops/experience you do - just trying to inform myself.
Diggity
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AG
Heineken is a good poster, but he tends to communicate his opinions as facts.

and this came to mind

Heineken-Ashi
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MAS444 said:

Cool.

Are you saying property values have declined by 25% over some period of time...or boomers are just clueless as to their values?

I'm not disagreeing with you at all as I don't have near the chops/experience you do - just trying to inform myself.

I'm saying that the wealth that people currently think they have isn't as much as they think. That's because if their house had to sell today it would sell for much lower than they think. And if something happened in the economy, say an unemployment spike, and there was a rush to sell homes, the realized prices would be even lower. And once lower prices hit the books, they become comps.

Boomers over the next 10-20 years are going to be leaving their homes one way or another. And I'm sorry, but younger generations are proving every day that they can't afford the valuations. That's not going to change because we have a pricing problem, not a rate problem.

And there are some markets that have declined 25%. It's still localized.. main reason being.. nobody HAS to sell yet. That will change as time goes on.
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