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How to Determine Lot Value Absent Comps

799 Views | 6 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by normaleagle05
leighann
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AG
Hello,
My question is how to determine lot value of a dilapidated, tear-down Houston property. Neighborhood homes were mostly built in the 1960s and 1970s, currently range ~$350k-$600k. There have been only three new construction homes (out of hundreds of older), with one being a private off-market sale, and the other two were owners who tore down their own older (flooded) houses to build new on the same lot. So, no MLS data.
Can I look at the HCAD property value (ignoring improvement), then deduct the estimated demolition cost?
This is a flood-prone property (has flooded 6+ times in 10 years), and would have to be built up higher for new construction.
I'm sure that the lot has *some* value, but what are factors to consider in valuing this property?
Thank you!
Troglodyte
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AG
I think you are going to have to work backwards. What is it going to cost to build a house on the lot that fits with the neighborhood? What will that house be worth when completed? You can included a little bit for developer profit (probably 10-15%). That should be the value of the land.
normaleagle05
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AG
I'm no help on the lot value but I'm sure curious what you plan/can get financed to build on a guaranteed to flood lot.

Will it be a structure on stilts?
Diggity
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AG
the lenders can chime in, but I would imagine the lack of newer comps would make this a challenge.

Even a smaller Tilson build on your lot would probably be $500K or so. Add demo cost and whatever it's going to cost to build outside of the 500 year floodplain and you could get to $600K+ quickly.
leighann
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AG
I think you would bring in dirt to build up the lot, plus elevate the house to bring it up out of the flood zone.
There are quite a few being built like this in Houston in response to the flooding. Sounds expensive, for sure!
leighann
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AG
Thanks for your response!
Owner hinted at selling for HCAD land value, but I'm not sure we would have a good exit strategy if we bought it and didn't build.
Plus HOA fees, property taxes would make holding costs high.
normaleagle05
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AG
When everyone has rebuilt and paid to bring in fill it will be like nobody has brought in fill and it'll all flood again.

That's if it's even legal to bring in fill. I expect FEMA will be revamping that FIRM.
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