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Brazil market's nasty reaction to election

2,189 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by QBCade
Capt. J. Yossarian
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11:33a, 10/26/26
Blood red today after leftist wins election.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-26/brazil-markets-brace-for-rout-on-lula-s-improbable-election-win

Edit: Ibovespa (Brazil's SPY) fell 26% at open. Brutal
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I bleed maroon
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12:39p, 10/26/26
AG
Good opportunities, here, if you're brave (or stupid) enough.

Yes - the election outcome was a shock, and yes, Lula appears to be a socialist/communist at heart. Yes, Brazil's judicial system appears to be in bed with Lula. BUT - -

The opposition controls a solid majority of their legislature, and for gosh sakes, this guy is an incumbent. If he couldn't enact much socialism before, he's probably not going to be able to now. He'll probably just focus on retribution toward the Bolsonaros, which (news flash) were not going to be that great for Brazil's economy either. Both alternatives were going to be corrupt politicians, so I think this is a bit of a blip - - it may take some time to sort out, but the situation on the ground for Brazil's economy is not materially changed, IMHO.

I have two holdings that took it on the chin this morning - MELI and NU. I doubled down by buying some April call options on NU, and I'm up 7% so far today on the slight recovery we've witnessed. I'm undecided on MELI at this point - would welcome thoughts on their prospects.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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2:26p, 10/26/26
AG
Bought EWZ.
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Red Fishing Ag93
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10:44p, 10/26/26
AG
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.
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ErnestEndeavor
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In reply to Red Fishing Ag93 • 8:17a, 10/27/26
In Brazil? The right wing already won the legislature races. The presidential election was a runoff.
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GeorgiAg
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In reply to Red Fishing Ag93 • 12:00p, 10/29/26
AG
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.
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pfo
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10:00p, 10/29/26
AG
Money flees socialism and communism because those governments destroy all they touch. Taking from producers and giving to unproductive and destructive voters always results in failure, misery and, eventually collapse. That's why producers in America are fleeing blue states and moving to red states. If America collapses into Democrat socialism, America will collapse too. But the producers will have moved and taken their money with them.
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AggieFrog
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In reply to GeorgiAg • 11:12p, 10/29/26
AG
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.
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Red Fishing Ag93
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In reply to AggieFrog • 5:47a, 10/30/26
AG
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.
Facepalm.
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deddog
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In reply to AggieFrog • 7:06a, 10/30/26
AG
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.

Remember, it doesn't matter where things are - politicians can always make it a lot worse.
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Mas89
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In reply to AggieFrog • 8:07a, 10/30/26
AG
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.

Just look back at what Hussein Obama and Joe Xiden did and you can answer your own questions. You asked about the economy so I'll list just a few things they did which cost our country Trillions to producers And Consumers.
Green new Energy Legislation- Brought us the auto start/ stop bull chit on gas engines, diesel exhaust fluid/ egr problems with all diesel powered products, and also the fuel efficiency mandates which created the awful engines being produced and sold to consumers today in all cars and trucks. These problems are very hard to undo once production has been altered. Every industry in the US has been greatly harmed by these huge costs.
'Next we have the solar and wind farms which have been a government funded disaster. While they worked hard to kill the coal powered plants and natural gas plants.
'Finally the regulations, restrictions, and general harassment of the oil/ gas/ energy production companies while draining our strategic reserves.

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YouBet
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In reply to AggieFrog • 9:45a, 10/30/26
AG
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.


Open borders and onerous regulations off the top of my head. They've also said they are going to double down on deficits and restore all the spending that Trump actually did cut.

So, all of that will get worse notwithstanding some of Trump's bonehead moves.
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Red Fishing Ag93
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7:57p, 10/30/26
AG
You know the permit to build a house in CA is $200,000.

The dudes on the governor debate promised to lower it from 200k all the way to 50k.

50k for the permit.

Wth. Insanity.
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El Chupacabra
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In reply to AggieFrog • 8:24a, 10/31/26
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.

Unregulated AI? Are we looking at a T2 type scenario? Much concern.
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AggieFrog
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In reply to El Chupacabra • 8:32a, 10/31/26
AG
El Chupacabra said:
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.

Unregulated AI? Are we looking at a T2 type scenario? Much concern.

It has the potential to be more dangerous than nuclear weapons. Imagine the late 1940s and we just hand private business unfettered ability to create nuclear weapons for profit. That's more or less what's happening right now. Plenty of great things will come from AI but it's also immensely dangerous in numerous ways. There should be regulatory framework around it to mitigate those dangers.
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Red Fishing Ag93
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In reply to AggieFrog • 8:53a, 10/31/26
AG
If you can regulate China, I'm all ears.
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AggieFrog
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In reply to Red Fishing Ag93 • 9:06a, 10/31/26
AG
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
If you can regulate China, I'm all ears.

We regulated nuclear arms while the USSR was also developing them. Perhaps we should actually try to lead the free world like we used to.
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Red Fishing Ag93
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9:10a, 10/31/26
AG
Like being friends with dictators?

That always confused me.
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El Chupacabra
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In reply to AggieFrog • 10:59a, 10/31/26
AggieFrog said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
If you can regulate China, I'm all ears.

We regulated nuclear arms while the USSR was also developing them. Perhaps we should actually try to lead the free world like we used to.


Where in this 'free world' you speak of? I need to move there.
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QBCade
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In reply to AggieFrog • 10:59a, 10/31/26
AG
AggieFrog said:
GeorgiAg said:
Red Fishing Ag93 said:
What happens if leftists win the House or House/Senate.

I've been thinking our midterms will lead to a large market correction. Trump will be even more unhinged and the Dems will F everything up. Lord help us if they get the Senate too.

What exactly will the Democrats do worse for the economy? Tariffs? Wars? Trade wars with our allies? Huge deficits? Government ownership of numerous private companies? Unregulated AI?

We're already there with terrible economic policies.


It's a mix of terrible policies- trade wars/tariffs, Iran war, and good policies - deregulation, tax incentives for businesses to invest, border.
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