Howdy Ags - class of 2000 here. Past 15 years I have been running BD at a small, family-owned O&G tech/software/readiness firm. We're high margin but low volume. When I have 20 billable resources billing - I do very well (profit sharing). But - with an unexpected, perfect storm of 2 greenfield capital project shifts for 2 majors at the same time, I'm now looking at about a 75% pay cut for the next few years. With college literally around the corner for my first born, cars for the others, etc - this is a storm I'm not sure I have the stomach to weather. The only thing keeping me from jumping is my payout if we sell. We've been approached before but 1 of the 2 owners has always been reluctant. And now I've launched a new "land and expand" strategy with one of our new readiness tools that could build a nice pipeline of recurring revenue... which might be worth something to the right PE firm one day. I know software is the wrong business to be in but this one is very different... and it's about to be landed at 3 majors and would lock in follow-on revenue. But that's a slow growth avenue that doesn't replace MCP work.

My history in situations like this isn't great. I left my last role with a boutique engineering firm to join this company, but I hand-picked my replacement (CEO and I were on great terms and I found him a good hand). Anyway, 2 years after leaving they sold that company and the dude who took my spot got a 7-figure payday. Good for him.

So my dilemma - do I stick it out and just do everything I can to position the revenue/client side of the current business to be as attractive as possible with the hopes of a buyout in a year or two? Then I'd make my 7 figure payday if that happens. But that would mean weathering a pretty intense storm in terms of upcoming expenses and drastically reduced income while betting on the come. Or - do I start to genuinely look at a possible jump and... if the right role w good comp came along, just accept it's time to move on? I would hate to leave this company (they're like family) but I have a real family that takes priority.

Option #3 - maybe take on a part-time BD consulting or other critical thinking job to offset things in the meantime? I've run sales teams, full multi-threaded outreach campaigns, etc. My current job is remote/flexible so I could realistically put 20 hrs in elsewhere. I'm up super early and can stay late. Option #3 is my favorite but I'm not sure how many folks hire part time or fractional BD leaders that aren't some cheesy commission-only gigs that erode your personal brand/network.

So - tldr - any opinions or advice from a cold-eyes perspective? I'm sure some of y'all have been here... would love to hear from you. Thanks for the time and gig em! "Next year" is our year for a football natty! lol

I'm waiting on my 7-figure payday with a motivated/hesitant mix of owners as well so I know the tension you're talking about. I probably serve the same set of customers you're referring to - likely even a smaller group. Our revenue concentration at this point is 95% on three names - 50% on one. It will either go great or terrible.

The thing that worries me with your situation (just only in the context of the info you provided) is that the barriers of entry to tech/software have been obliterated in the last year by AI...and they'll get lower. The majors are devoting huge amounts of capital to the this soft-tech innovation.

We're a bit different in that we're building 300,000lb, extremely high spec things...our barriers to entry are a bit higher than I expect yours are and that gives me a bit more comfort than if I were in your situation (or at least the situation I am attributing you to be in). I could be very wrong

Where the value seems to be that someone in your position can extract from the AI buildout is knowing the context of where the tool is starting and where it needs to go. Your experience is the value more than the tools you are selling. If your experience translates to the degree that you're the sellable product rather than the tool, I'd feel good about waiting out the place that you've got some equity and a decent handle on when that sales process is going to kick-off. Equity only matters when the transaction happens so even if a new gig offers you double, if they don't sell, who cares what the % is.

bagger05 said:

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Do you have anything on paper that says what you get if they sell?

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Yep. All good there.

yeah - I hear you. I think I just needed a push, lol. I'm a very loyal person so shopping for a new potential landing spot feels a bit weird and the thought of forgoing an equity payout sucks... but you're right. I'll never know until I see what's out there. I appreciate the comments!

Being approached usually doesn't mean much, particularly the number presented. Almost always, either that number will be reduced significantly or the sale will fall through once the diligence process starts. People always use the most rosy assumptions in making an unsolicited offer. Unsolicited offers mean absolutely nothing to me.

In your situation and based on my experience (I'm not in software, so it could be very different), I wouldn't even consider the payout in making your decision until your company has, at a minimum, begun active PSA/MIPA negotiations involving large law firms. Even then it is still risky and plenty of deals are walked at that stage, but at least there is significant money invested creating momentum. So many variables until you have a signed document (I think it is safe to consider once you're in a true diligence period).

I assume you also have your equity percentage in writing, not just relying on the goodwill of the primary owners.