PA24 said:

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I just sold all my Bitcoin holdings therefore there is a high probability that Bitcoin will go to 6 figures within days.

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How much of a loss did you take?

Thinking of buying 1 coin before Trump is sworn in. Thinking might be something since government interest in purchasing. I am currently down about $10k trying to guess the trends, this time will hold for 2 years.

Thoughts?

double b said:

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PA24 said:

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I just sold all my Bitcoin holdings therefore there is a high probability that Bitcoin will go to 6 figures within days.

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How much of a loss did you take?

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hilarious!

carl spacklers hat said:

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Thoughts:

When you first posted, BTC was in the $25-$30k range (April 2023). You liquidated all your holdings and took a loss. Now, you are considering jumping in again with BTC trading at $105k, with an intention to hold for 2 years. Question for you is this: Are you an investor or a trader in the asset? My guess is you have a trader's mentality, which is why you bailed early and took a loss. If you are investing in the asset, I would think your horizon would be 5 years, at a minimum. So, if you are investing, maybe take the approach of adding fractionally until you reach 1.0 BTC.

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Good advise. I will try the fraction route and hopefully start trusting the investment.

With the world in total debt of over 300Trillion dollars, IMO, we will have to have a common one world currency and Bitcoin is positioned on the inside track.

PA24 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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Thoughts:

When you first posted, BTC was in the $25-$30k range (April 2023). You liquidated all your holdings and took a loss. Now, you are considering jumping in again with BTC trading at $105k, with an intention to hold for 2 years. Question for you is this: Are you an investor or a trader in the asset? My guess is you have a trader's mentality, which is why you bailed early and took a loss. If you are investing in the asset, I would think your horizon would be 5 years, at a minimum. So, if you are investing, maybe take the approach of adding fractionally until you reach 1.0 BTC.

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Good advise. I will try the fraction route and hopefully start trusting the investment.

With the world in total debt of over 300Trillion dollars, IMO, we will have to have a common one world currency and Bitcoin is positioned on the inside track.

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The bolded part goes back to my first question posted back in April '23 - what is your investment thesis? You don't sound sold on the investment. I'm not bagging on you, but I'm curios about your thought process. If you have $100k to put into BTC now, and you're convinced of your investment strategy, then allocate accordingly. If it were my money, I would DCA on a weekly basis until the $100k was exhausted,allocating something like $10k per week.

So you know where I'm coming from, I currently own less than one BTC but more than zero. I started dabbling in crypto in 2017/18. Traded in and out of BTC, ETH and several others. Made some money but didn't see the long-term horizon then. Once I learned more about BTC I came to view it as a long-term hold, like precious metals or other longer-term assets in a diversified portfolio. I doubt I will ever sell or convert what I have and pass it on to my kids.

carl spacklers hat said:

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PA24 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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Thoughts:

When you first posted, BTC was in the $25-$30k range (April 2023). You liquidated all your holdings and took a loss. Now, you are considering jumping in again with BTC trading at $105k, with an intention to hold for 2 years. Question for you is this: Are you an investor or a trader in the asset? My guess is you have a trader's mentality, which is why you bailed early and took a loss. If you are investing in the asset, I would think your horizon would be 5 years, at a minimum. So, if you are investing, maybe take the approach of adding fractionally until you reach 1.0 BTC.

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Good advise. I will try the fraction route and hopefully start trusting the investment.

With the world in total debt of over 300Trillion dollars, IMO, we will have to have a common one world currency and Bitcoin is positioned on the inside track.

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The bolded part goes back to my first question posted back in April '23 - what is your investment thesis? You don't sound sold on the investment. I'm not bagging on you, but I'm curios about your thought process. If you have $100k to put into BTC now, and you're convinced of your investment strategy, then allocate accordingly. If it were my money, I would DCA on a weekly basis until the $100k was exhausted,allocating something like $10k per week.

So you know where I'm coming from, I currently own less than one BTC but more than zero. I started dabbling in crypto in 2017/18. Traded in and out of BTC, ETH and several others. Made some money but didn't see the long-term horizon then. Once I learned more about BTC I came to view it as a long-term hold, like precious metals or other longer-term assets in a diversified portfolio. I doubt I will ever sell or convert what I have and pass it on to my kids.

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The noise level of Bitcoin is increasing which has been taking another look especially since we have a President elect that is more favorable to the investment than Biden. Political change has increased my faith in the investment…okay.

If all the hype is real with our new leaders,, there is still a lot of growth to be gained.

PA24 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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PA24 said:

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carl spacklers hat said:

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Thoughts:

When you first posted, BTC was in the $25-$30k range (April 2023). You liquidated all your holdings and took a loss. Now, you are considering jumping in again with BTC trading at $105k, with an intention to hold for 2 years. Question for you is this: Are you an investor or a trader in the asset? My guess is you have a trader's mentality, which is why you bailed early and took a loss. If you are investing in the asset, I would think your horizon would be 5 years, at a minimum. So, if you are investing, maybe take the approach of adding fractionally until you reach 1.0 BTC.

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Good advise. I will try the fraction route and hopefully start trusting the investment.

With the world in total debt of over 300Trillion dollars, IMO, we will have to have a common one world currency and Bitcoin is positioned on the inside track.

---

The bolded part goes back to my first question posted back in April '23 - what is your investment thesis? You don't sound sold on the investment. I'm not bagging on you, but I'm curios about your thought process. If you have $100k to put into BTC now, and you're convinced of your investment strategy, then allocate accordingly. If it were my money, I would DCA on a weekly basis until the $100k was exhausted,allocating something like $10k per week.

So you know where I'm coming from, I currently own less than one BTC but more than zero. I started dabbling in crypto in 2017/18. Traded in and out of BTC, ETH and several others. Made some money but didn't see the long-term horizon then. Once I learned more about BTC I came to view it as a long-term hold, like precious metals or other longer-term assets in a diversified portfolio. I doubt I will ever sell or convert what I have and pass it on to my kids.

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The noise level of Bitcoin is increasing which has been taking another look especially since we have a President elect that is more favorable to the investment than Biden. Political change has increased my faith in the investment…okay.

If all the hype is real with our new leaders,, there is still a lot of growth to be gained.

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Same here, the noise level since they introduced the ETFs got me interested initially because it made it easier for for the masses to invest so I started to DCA into IBIT. Then Trump started talking about it along with countries and investment adoption possibilities. Seemed like an easy win short term at the worst and perhaps it works out long term and perhaps it eventually goes to zero.


I have a base amount I plan to hang onto and little more I'm trading the ups and downs with.

If it ever tripples from my base I'll probably sell 1/3rd and hold the rest net free, or something close to that

Holding and will buy more.

A few months ago, I downloaded the entire bitcoin price history data and compared the highest price on a given date with the lowest price on the same date four years later. The worst CAGR over any four-year period was ~21%. In other words, nobody who has held bitcoin for four years has done worse than doubling their money. I have not run the numbers since then but I'd expect this to still be true.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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A few months ago, I downloaded the entire bitcoin price history data and compared the highest price on a given date with the lowest price on the same date four years later. The worst CAGR over any four-year period was ~21%. In other words, nobody who has held bitcoin for four years has done worse than doubling their money. I have not run the numbers since then but I'd expect this to still be true.

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I wouldn't be surprised if that stays true. But at the same time, there isn't nearly enough history and data to say what will or will not happen in the future. BTC has still yet to exist in anything other than a long-term, debt fueled bull market. 2022 was not a good sign for how it might react in a bear market, and that wasn't much more than a blip compared to historical periods of increased economic volatility.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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A few months ago, I downloaded the entire bitcoin price history data and compared the highest price on a given date with the lowest price on the same date four years later. The worst CAGR over any four-year period was ~21%. In other words, nobody who has held bitcoin for four years has done worse than doubling their money. I have not run the numbers since then but I'd expect this to still be true.

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I wouldn't be surprised if that stays true. But at the same time, there isn't nearly enough history and data to say what will or will not happen in the future. BTC has still yet to exist in anything other than a long-term, debt fueled bull market. 2022 was not a good sign for how it might react in a bear market, and that wasn't much more than a blip compared to historical periods of increased economic volatility.

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Who knows if this will continue. I do like the fact that it has so far. I don't see the money printer slowing anytime soon.