What's the consensus on the market outlook going forward? Would the market now represent a buying opportunity as far as rebalancing a 401k portfolio from bonds to stocks, or would you hold off…..? Money not needed for 5-10 years

DCA monthly for me

No one knows the answer to this, if they did we'd all be on yachts right now.

Proposition Joe said:

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No one knows the answer to this, if they did we'd all be on yachts right now.

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Yeah, I get it..just wanted opinions..........

ShotOver said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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No one knows the answer to this, if they did we'd all be on yachts right now.

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Yeah, I get it..just wanted opinions..........

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Well in that case, it's gunna go up, and then go down.

10 years from now it will be higher than it is now.

https://irp.cdn-website.com/0850b9ef/files/uploaded/wp-content%3Auploads%3A2019%3A01%3ABull-and-Bear-Markets-9-28-18.pdf

I use the history of Bear Markets in the US to devise my rules for rebalancing my passive portfolios based on index delta rather than my normal rebalancing policy that occurs at fixed time intervals.

From the link above you'll note that there have been 8 bear markets in the US since the Great Depression (the March '20 bear market is not included). Of those 8 bear markets, only 2 have had a greater than 40% peak to trough decline, and only 1 ('08-'09) has had a decline greater than 50%. Thus I've set rules for myself to rebalance my portfolios during bear markets when the S&P 500 makes 20%, 40%, and 50% declines from the peak.

I rebalanced at 3850 in June. Next rebalance will be at 2900 if we get there.

I moved about 30% of my 401K into a stable value around S&P 4400 when it seemed pretty clear we were going to have QT and rate increases by the Fed.

It's all back in the market as of today.

I didn't nail the top or bottom I have no doubt but I'm good with what I got out of the move.

Dill-Ag13 said:

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DCA monthly for me

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This is the way.

From the other thread:

irish pete ag06 said:

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Wanna see something crazy...


$500 DCA'ed into TQQQ from it's inception to now.

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ShotOver said:

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What's the consensus on the market outlook going forward? Would the market now represent a buying opportunity as far as rebalancing a 401k portfolio from bonds to stocks, or would you hold off…..? Money not needed for 5-10 years

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You should be good, however....

We are entering the most volatile time in global history since WWII. Globalization is over. It's going to be chaotic as hell for a long while.

I would have a very diversified portfolio.

The market will continue to go down until it goes back up. Invest accordingly

We have to think the market will be higher in 5 and 10 years unless the SHTF.

But what indicators are out there for anyone to think that the market won't continue to decline??

So many refuse to believe anyone can and should time the market.

OK, I've been drinking and have a major cigar high. But I pulled out of market when Dow was 35,000. Boldly so. I will get back when it's below 30,000. Can't say if it's when 20,000, 25,000 or 27,500.

The real question is what will 10% interest rates do to the market? How will it react?

Futures down big today. Looks like another ugly day in the stock market.

I think the bottom will likely end up being in the 3400 to 3637 (low from June) range. It may still go lower, and anyone that says they know for sure is lying to you or themselves, but I think we are likely pretty close.

As far as moving long-term back into stocks I like two ways to go about this: 1) work like Buffet does and start cost averaging in right now on the way down or 2) you could be patient and wait for a bottom and a reversal and begin cost averaging back in on the way up. Either way might work depending on your time to devote, your active trading experience, and when you stage your entries. For the market right now, I like the cost averaging on the way down for long-term accounts. I've successfully made incremental units by selling high and I want to start locking in those profits now. If it goes lower that's fine since I won't be touching any of these for 20 years or more.

I'm moved money into my taxable account yesterday and again today but won't go thru till probably Monday.


I got half my cash remaining now and that's ear marked for that account at some point later.

If we hit the 3500s i may call that close enough for me and be done with everything happening in the market for the foreseeable future


When we're back at 4400, whether that next hear, thr year after or whatever I'll be up an extra
18-20% or so than I would have been otherwise had I done nothing.

And yes, my financial advisor says I'm taking risk but this isn't something I plan on doing regularly, just when something big happens that's tells us the market is going down like Covid or QT and rate hikes

ShotOver said:

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What's the consensus on the market outlook going forward? Would the market now represent a buying opportunity as far as rebalancing a 401k portfolio from bonds to stocks, or would you hold off…..? Money not needed for 5-10 years

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massive pain still to come

if you have funds and don't need them for 10 years-

why WOULDN'T you be DCA every week?!!

What's your guesstimate for the bottom?

S&P 3500, 3400...?

jamey said:

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What's your guesstimate for the bottom?

S&P 3500, 3400...?

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looks like we are breaking resistance at 3636 on the S&P

that would lead most chartists to believe we are going to 3200 before this is all over

on the other hand, I am not a market timer- I buy every time the market has a serious drop.

every day where is a large loss on the indexes I buy another $700 or $800 in my personal brokerage.

my corporate 401K is set to DCA every two weeks on payday into mutual funds diversified by sector

You have mutual funds in your 401K?

We have target funds and large or small cap or international. That's about it

I think people need to realize that the markets won't settle till we get capitulation. That means max pain. It took till 2009 till the stock market bottom and we weren't fighting inflation with jacked up rates.

This won't stop till there's blood in the street.

Green light. Started buying in again today.

Been tracking two targets for months, and both hit this week. Will prolly drop short term, just my luck ha. Dont care, i got the price i wanted.

jamey said:

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You have mutual funds in your 401K?

We have target funds and large or small cap or international. That's about it

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Sound like mutual funds to me.
Fact: The markets have never stayed down.

jamey said:

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What's your guesstimate for the bottom?

S&P 3500, 3400...?

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I'm not one for making public predictions but here goes....

From the chart I've drawn for myself, barring any further catastrophes, I see a bottom in the S&P around 3045, and I believe this will happen sometime between the end of February and the beginning of May.

Let's see if this ends up being my first and last public prediction.

jamey said:

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You have mutual funds in your 401K?

We have target funds and large or small cap or international. That's about it

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Whoever made the choice of fund options has a fiduciary duty and it's not hard to fix. Who's the provider?

Watch the 3700 level on ES futures. If that can clear and become support there is possibility of a releif rally squeeze. Otherwise, wait to use dry powder until 3580ish is reached. These are near term levels from Adam Mancini, who is the best I've seen on determining inflection points and higher probability entries.

jamey said:

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What's your guesstimate for the bottom?

S&P 3500, 3400...?

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3100 before the end of the year. Fed will stop increasing rates by the end of the first quarter so I would expect the S&P to run to 3900 by the end of 2023.

April is usually the best (or one of the best) months for the 500. This year, it went down during April. However, August and Sept are usually down months, and this year they followed suit. May through July is flat, but this year it was slightly down. October, believe it or not, is, on average slightly up as is the last quarter.

However, I'm not betting on it. I think this October will be another '87. Maybe not in one day, and maybe not as relatively severe, but I'm not getting back in. There's nothing fundamentally sound that screams value here. The Covid drop was an overreaction. However, this drop doesn't appear to be. It is long and sustained. Plus, we've spent the fortunes of 4-6 generations since then.

I still say you can't repeal the laws of macroeconomics.