Is it time to buy or time to sell land?

1,963 Views | 9 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Ag CPA
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According to the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M (source here):
  • The number of statewide rural land sales was up 18% YOY
  • Texas 2021 land sales dollar volume was up 97% YOY
  • The price per acre statewide was up 29% YOY
We are still seeing a surplus of cash buyers lined up to buy ranch land and a lack of inventory. What are your thoughts on where this market is heading?

Garrett Ruple '06
Buy Land. Live Well.
830-569-3500
https://rupleproperties.com/
info@rupleproperties.com
FrioAg 00
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Mortgage backed land purchase is probably the single best investment as far as doing well in both high inflation and recession type market conditions

AgsMyDude
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FrioAg 00 said:

Mortgage backed land purchase is probably the single best investment as far as doing well in both high inflation and recession type market conditions




I'm new to this concept of mortgage-backed land purchase. Is this essentially doing a cash-out refi to purchase land? Pardon my ignorance.
FrioAg 00
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Not sure a refi would accomplish it if you just put those funds into the market, which presumably would get priced down when we flip from inflationary environment to recession. Perhaps if your use of the funds were paying off higher cost debt, or some other purchase you intend to hold longer than an economic cycle.

However, taking long term investment money and better on land value rides inflation up and tends to be stickier, not pricing down when the bubble pops. (Land, not improvements).

Meanwhile purchasing it with low fixed rate interest and then paying that back with deflated dollars in the future is sort of an additional positive on inflation.

You are limited to the size of cash flows you can afford to service the note (unless you are wealthy enough that a bank offers you something with no amortization, which isn't many people)


I know quite a few wealthy and financially astute Texans who have made large acreage purchases over the past 18 months. This includes some wealth managers, cfos and bankers.

AgsMyDude
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Thanks. All of that makes sense except I still don't quite get where your original "Mortgage backed land purchase" portion comes into play?
FrioAg 00
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Maybe I should have just said "debt financed land" or highly leveraged purchase, linking the performance of the asset price and the cheap fixed interest rates available in a high inflation environment

Ag CPA
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Isn't it a little too late for this play?
AgsMyDude
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Ah okay cool, I thought maybe I was missing something!


also, you should consider using the reply button when talking directly to someone
FrioAg 00
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I think that depends on your perception of how much longer it will really take for the higher interest rates to slow down the accelerated inflation, and eventually lead to a correction /recession.

I think you may be mostly right - my belief is that the pols running the Fed are holding it off as long as possible to try to salvage midterms. Signaling rising rates to try to stem inflation, but not raising the underlying rate quickly. Hoping they can thread the needle between now and November.

In the meantime fixed rates are still pretty low, and inflation is still rising - so all the value of this play may not be done



Note: see my "reply", this dog can learn new tricks
Ag CPA
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I'm referring to mortgage rates, the 30-year is now around 5%; I have no idea what you currently would pay for land on top of that.
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