According to Jeremy Grantham at GMO. Interesting read.

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/

MemphisAg1 said:

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According to Jeremy Grantham at GMO. Interesting read.

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/

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I agree with most of what he says. But we're not there yet. Another couple years.

I think Grantham has been beating the drum on a massive bubble for years.

I have no doubt he will be right eventually.

chris1515 said:

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I think Grantham has been beating the drum on a massive bubble for years.

I have no doubt he will be right eventually.

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Agreed. He's been right the past 6 out of 2 times.

Anyone reading or listening to a permabear like Grantham should be required to read and listen to Jeremy Siegel (and vice versa). When their viewpoints align, is what I would find most interesting.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Casey TableTennis said:

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Anyone reading or listening to a permabear like Grantham should be required to read and listen to Jeremy Siegel (and vice versa). When their viewpoints align, is what I would find most interesting.

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In fairness Grantham did predict the 2000 and 2008 bubbles bursting. Additional the heavy intervention by the Fed since 2008 has heavily distorted normal market cycles since then.

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Of course he did, his investment thesis is literally reversion to the mean. If that is your thesis, those periods should look like a bubble.

I'm not fully discounting his view, simply saying it should be balanced against others.

So if what he says happens, what is the best strategy right now?

WestTexasAg said:

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So if what he says happens, what is the best strategy right now?

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I don't think anyone really knows. We are kind of in unchartered territory.

If you listen to the big financial firms, they just keep saying equities are good for the next 3-5 years so stay invested. And that we are more diverse from a fundamentals standpoint and thus better protected than say the 2008 Recession. However, they naturally have a bias for you to stay in equities.

We got no idea what is reality.

We really don't. We are all just guessing. Theres really no precedent for what we've seen go down and what we might see in the future.

Even after a run up in both, Gold is at historically low levels vs. the S&P 500.

I've been upping cash to potentially take advantage of opportunities when they come...but man... inflation is eating it alive.

My guys are dropping their allocations to foreign funds/stocks. The volatility and uncertainty in the EU and Asia is spooking many.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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WestTexasAg said:

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So if what he says happens, what is the best strategy right now?

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He likes cheaper foreign stocks (I don't really like the relative value strategy as global markets are highly correlated these days, see 2008). He also likes gold and cash for buying power.

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Check the European market close today.......it ain't pretty