New to the metal market and curious what you guys think about silver. With everything going on in the world I am wanting something to fall back on. Is it worth stockpiling over the next couple decades? If so, where should I go to get it? Sorry I am a noob with all of this.

I would swing by the homes of all the olympic basketball players who played USA in the championship game over the past few decades.

If this repeats anything like 2008, then you have a little time to slowly acquire it. I invested in physical silver back during the housing crisis and sold most of it in 2011 (still have some left because it's more collectors). Made roughly 225% on my return on average, so no complaints there.

I went with the SLV route this time in my retirement portfolio.

Palladium has bigger swings for sure. I think you can't go wrong. Just make sure you use reputable dealers as there are so many scams out there on ebay and other places. Isn't there an aggie that owns a shop that posts around here?

Carlo4 said:

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If this repeats anything like 2008, then you have a little time to slowly acquire it. I invested in physical silver back during the housing crisis and sold most of it in 2011 (still have some left because it's more collectors). Made roughly 225% on my return on average, so no complaints there.

I went with the SLV route this time in my retirement portfolio.

Palladium has bigger swings for sure. I think you can't go wrong. Just make sure you use reputable dealers as there are so many scams out there on ebay and other places. Isn't there an aggie that owns a shop that posts around here?

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I would certainly love to deal with an Aggie!

Any recommendations are welcome.

I highly recommend silver and gold to anyone and everyone. It is true wealth/money. I dabble a little in some of the mining stocks/ETF but 95% of my position in precious metals is in the physical. My question to you is why do you want to get into precious metals?

Outdoorag011 said:

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I highly recommend silver and gold to anyone and everyone. It is true wealth/money. I dabble a little in some of the mining stocks/ETF but 95% of my position in precious metals is in the physical. My question to you is why do you want to get into precious metals?

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In your opinion, what makes gold different than fiat currency in modern times? In particular, I'm curious about the "true wealth" assertion. You can't buy a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas directly with gold, and I suspect you are not using the gold for industrial or commercial purposes. Obviously, gold has its own price, but just like the dollar, euro, or pound, it is only worth something because of a social construct (i.e., we all agree it is worth something).

That being said, I would not argue against holding gold as a hedge against inflation, or to mitigate geopolitical/country-specific risks, but it seems like you can do that just as easily by holding carefully chosen foreign currencies. Risk management does not seem to be the main thrust of your post though.

Obligatory disclaimer: Not trolling or bashing, just curious to get your detailed thoughts.

I prefer the streaming companies.you guys seem to prefer the miners or the metal itself.just curious about your thoughts.

You honestly don't even need to distinguish "modern" fiat currencies. The world has had thousands of fiat type currencies over the centuries. Every single one has gone to 0. Every currency that isn't back by something eventually goes to 0. The main reason gold is different is that you can't print it. So when the US and other counties get into a bind, all they have to do is digitally or physically print money. This over time destroys the purchasing power of that said currency. The number one argument I see against gold 10/10 is "you can't eat gold". I guess I didn't realize you can eat stocks. I don't hold gold as an investment. I hold it as a hedge against all the countries in the world printing their way out of debt. All I treat it as is a store of wealth that gets my purchasing power from one paradigm to the next. No I won't barter with it, trade a gold coin for a loaf of bread. Their is a reason the bank of international settlements now classifies gold as a tier 1 asset, up from tier 3. We are entering into a decade where I believe physical assets like precious metals, real estate, farms, water, will be very important. Same applies for silver. I actually like sicker better than gold. Our world cannot function without silver. Also the argument that gold is only worth something because of a social construct means nothing. You can say that about a lot of things in this world. I'll choose to put my currency into gold and silver that have a 5000+ year track record.

This is what I believe. You may believe gold is just a golden covered rock that has zero value and that is totally fine. I just like knowing that what I hold my wealth in can't be printed 2 trillion times in the matter of seconds.

Great discussion! This forum is the best one on TexAgs. Not only do people put themselves out there and explain what they think and why, but people can completely disagree and yet continue to discuss like adults. It helps themselves learn an alternative view and also helps educate the lurkers like myself.

I 100% agree. This is a great board. I love talking gold and silver. God's money!

I'm into silver as well, but I invest in silver numismatic devices not just bars or rounds. I look at it as a way to hedge my physical silver with another added premium. Numismatics can have huge down markets as well, so I'd suggest highest quality coins you can afford, from the most in demand coin series', and that you personally enjoy.

I'll probably start buying raw bullion coins moving forward to acquire more silver once spot premiums go down.

Outdoorag011 said:

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I highly recommend silver and gold to anyone and everyone. It is true wealth/money.

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How do you store your metals for max safety? I guess just a really good safe suffices?

A really good safe always helps. Especially one with a high security and fire rating. Spend the extra money and get a good one. The most important advice I tell people about storing precious metals is to not keep it all in one place. I personally have my metals stored in five different places. I even have some buried. I have a few friends that built small hidden rooms behind a wall to store some of their metals. I actually only keep a very small stack in the safe. My safe is mainly for firearms. The places I stash my metals no one will EVER find it. Most importantly... tell NO ONE and I mean NO ONE that you store precious metals in your house. A large number of thefts involving expensive items in a home are done by a relative or a friend.

I bought in the 90s w some extra money I had. Bought quite a bit of maple leafs and krugerrands. I believe the most I paid was $338 for maples per coin. Only smart thing I did when I was a little younger!

Wow that's awesome. You are sitting on some pretty nice gains. Have you sold any?

Outdoorag011 said:

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A really good safe always helps. Especially one with a high security and fire rating. Spend the extra money and get a good one. The most important advice I tell people about storing precious metals is to not keep it all in one place. I personally have my metals stored in five different places. I even have some buried. I have a few friends that built small hidden rooms behind a wall to store some of their metals. I actually only keep a very small stack in the safe. My safe is mainly for firearms. The places I stash my metals no one will EVER find it. Most importantly... tell NO ONE and I mean NO ONE that you store precious metals in your house. A large number of thefts involving expensive items in a home are done by a relative or a friend.

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What if you die?

Outdoorag011 said:

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Wow that's awesome. You are sitting on some pretty nice gains. Have you sold any?

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No not yet. I've given a few away as gifts to the kiddos for milestones in their life.

When I say tell no one, I mean not to tell 99% of people. I have a handful of people I trust with my life and money that know where my stack is. I just meant to keep the circle tight in terms of who knows.

That's really cool. If I were in your situation, I wouldn't sell that gold unless I had an a emergency. Gold is only going to go higher from here. Yes we will have some dips but the trajectory of the market is up. Debt can only increase from here and the currency printers around the world are on full blast. Like I said earlier, it feels really good to have some real wealth in something that can't be printed in the trillions in a matter of seconds.

Nah.....

Care to share?

As an industrial metal, it's r^2 has offered really no diversification benefit to market performance.

To find a an almost similar correlated investment....One would be could use preferred stock as an example. Still correlated to market , right around the same r^2 as silver give or take but kicks off 5-6% dividend interest.

If one had a portfolio of index 500 and silver. Silver hurts performance and it's correlation is not low. So why bother

FunkyKO said:

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As an industrial metal, it's r^2 has offered really no diversification benefit to market performance.

To find a an almost similar correlated investment....One would be could use preferred stock as an example. Still correlated to market , right around the same r^2 as silver give or take but kicks off 5-6% dividend interest.

If one had a portfolio of index 500 and silver. Silver hurts performance and it's correlation is not low. So why bother

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What do you mean by silver's r^2? Are you talking about statistical r^2? If so, there is no such thing as a static r^2 value because it changes due to model specificity.

rolling correlation outright, rolling correlation of volatility and rolling correlation of returns

its pretty closely correlated.

edited for data.

trailing 3 years for example. SLV and IVV have a correlation of .54. This places it in the moderate correlation.

>.70 is high for reference.

GLD on the other hand vs IVV has a correlation of .14. Which is almost none. <.10 is none.

so when I said nah. if trying to negative correlate vs markets in general but using s&p 500 as our measuring stick, slv nah. gld yay.

4th edit a charm.

the correlation between gld and slv is .68. So why not just to gld?

FunkyKO said:

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rolling correlation outright, rolling correlation of volatility and rolling correlation of returns

its pretty closely correlated.

edited for data.

trailing 3 years for example. SLV and IVV have a correlation of .54. This places it in the moderate correlation.

>.70 is high for reference.

GLD on the other hand vs IVV has a correlation of .14. Which is almost none. <.10 is none.

so when I said nah. if trying to negative correlate vs markets in general but using s&p 500 as our measuring stick, slv nah. gld yay.

4th edit a charm.

the correlation between gld and slv is .68. So why not just to gld?

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So a three year time frame is like a second in the precious metals space, so any analysis of market correlation between silver, gold, and stocks needs to go further back than that. For instance, the average price of silver since 2017 basically is unchanged, and will closely resemble any stock that pays high dividends to maintain price stability over growth.

Also, a two variable analysis, especially in something as complex as the market, leaves out any ability to control for confounding reasons why the analysis says what it says.

I think silver has some advantages over gold if you believe in the relative price between the two metals is out of sync and will converge back to their historical rate of 20:1 as opposed to 100:1 now.

Further, silver has critically in demand industrial uses that gold doesn't so it ostensibly has intrinsic value. Far out thought, silver is so cheap that there won't be any appetite to mine it off world in the next 100 years, not the case with gold, palladium, and other rare earth inputs.

Full disclosure, precious metals make very small position of my total assets which include equities, cash, real estate, cryptocurrency, and collectibles.

As someone who has a bit of precious metals in their holdings (mostly silver maple leafs and eagles, with a few gold coins), I'll give my opinion:

I think silver or gold are not worth having as an investment vehicle, overall. They aren't a perfect inflation hedge, have significant transaction costs (commissions, shipping, spot premium), storage costs, and liquidity challenges. In a complete economic collapse scenario, I think foodstocks, energy, guns or other goods are more valuable than precious metals. The lack of ongoing income/dividend makes them much less attractive financially than a high-quality bond fund, preferred stock fund, or blue chip equities.

The one thing I have found that they are good for is serving as an informal spending hedge. If you lock the metals away, it's not as easy to cash them in and buy a trip to Vegas or buy that new boat. So in this sense, they're worth having as a way to avoid blowing your excess cash. Some might also say that if you conduct all transactions in cash, you might gain a little tax leverage, as well.

Reputable gold and silver dealers ?

ecoag80 said:

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Reputable gold and silver dealers ?

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I used Colorado Gold and Apmex(?) as I recall. The local folks couldn't get close to their pricing. No issues with either - product well packaged, tracking for shipping, available by phone to discuss. I think the founder/old guy at Colorado Gold retired - he would talk your ear off about market conditions and politics.

Correlation is the same the last 3-5-7-10-14-25 years

Three year number is the first one that popped up.

Also. Would rather own the companies that buy the metals and manufacture products at a markup. Ex aapl

Silver and gold aren't worth having as an investment because they are not an investment. They are real money and insurance. I see a lot of people making the claim that food, water, shelter, guns and ammo will be worth more in an economic collapse. This may very well be true. What people fail to realize is silver and gold are NOT for a economic collapse. They are for AFTER the collapse is over. Food, water and security will probably be more important. However if we ever have a major collapse, one that makes the corona collapse look small, it will more than like have a lot to do with the world/us citizens losing faith in the dollar or the dollar becomes straight up toilet paper. That's where gold and silver come in. Precious metals are insurance for that day but also they will mainly be used to transfer wealth from this paradigm to the next. Guns and ammo won't have the same value after the collapse as they did during it. Gold and silver have been used as the medium of exchange between paradigm shifts for 5000 years. Say you have 1 million in your 401k. The US dollar collapses, how will you transfer that 1 million from the US dollar to whatever we have next and still maintain the same level of purchasing power? Real estate is a good answer but not everyone has the kind of money to put into property. Hard assets will be the answer. And yes guns and ammo are hard assets but again that is for during the collapse, not after.


I just really don't understand why people really put and trust their wealth into a currency that literally was printing 2 TRILLION times in the matter of days. Only thing they can come back with is RESERVE CURRENCY. Let's see how long that last.

Treat gold and silver as an investment and you will always come out to this conclusion. They are not an investment.

If it's bought at x and sold or traded for a gain or a loss. That's an investment.

Wait. You asked why nah on silver. I stated might as well do gold.

FunkyKO said:

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Correlation is the same the last 3-5-7-10-14-25 years

Three year number is the first one that popped up.

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So, I'm not trying to argue with you, but I really think you're a bit mistaken. Just a quick look at IVV and SLV are not really correlated at all over the last five years. Now of course SLV will be a near perfect correlation to silver spot prices - it's an index that is tracking silver mining. In effect, SLV is paper silver.

I hope I understood what you were trying to say.

Tell it to Bloomberg terminal and Factset
Comparison between slv and ivv goes back to 2006.
Slv incepted 2006.
Then ran Silver spot vs ivv
2000 was inception of ivv.
Longer than that just running straight index Vs silver spot.
It's a industrial metal. Of course it's going to correlate.

Why would I run ivv and slv first? Those are the easiest way to participate in both, which answers the ops original question.

If you are calculating correlation by calendar year. Yes it doesn't seem as close. Although 2015 throws things off. When market is up. Slv is up. When market is negative. Slv is negative.

If you are calculating correlation by rolling day like Bloomberg and factset. Whole different enchilada.

Which goes back to me saying. Might as well just do gold. Rolling correlation in gold is .14. .10 or less not correlated.